Summer Olympic Games Los Angeles 2028 Qualifying Simulation Road to LA 2028

[MatiReimundo 498]

50 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

2028 Team Size Projection – Feb 2026 Update

 

Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. Only February events were considered for this update. Sorry for the late update, I was quite busy in my personal life. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.

 

Here is the link to the updated sheet.

 

Aquatics (Artistic Swimming, Diving, Water Polo)

World Cup events were held for artistic swimming and diving. is now projected to qualify in artistic swimming over .

 

Diving saw some changes with gains going to (4) (2) and losses going to (2) .

 

Water polo had the European Championships. No changes to Olympic projections.

 

Athletics (Marathon & Race Walking)

The Tokyo Marathon and a gold level race walking tour event in Taicang were held. In the men’s marathon and are now in a qualifying position at the expense of and . On the women’s side; (2) have moved into a qualifying position while are out.

 

In the men’s 20km walk, gained two quotas at the expense of and . For the women’s 20km walk it is who are in position while are out.

 

Badminton

The African and Oceania championships took place along with other minor tournaments. The only change relative to last month was in the men’s doubles where overtook for the final spot

 

Baseball/Softball

The qualification document was released. While a slight change occurred, no changes to the teams qualified were made.

 

Basketball

A set of men’s World Cup qualifiers were held this month. Angola’s loss to Mali is something to consider, but given how close it was I still consider Angola to still be the favourite to qualify. On the other hand, Argentina’s loss to Uruguay is enough to consider a change. After some shuffling around is now on the inside while is out.

 

Cycling (BMX Racing, Road & Track)

Major events held this month include various continental championships.

 

In BMX Racing, gained a quota over in the men’s while is in a qualifying position over for the women.

 

In road cycling, on the men’s side; gained one quota over respectively. On the women’s side; gained one quota over

 

Track cycling see changes in the men’s individual sprint/keirin ( gain over ), men’s Madison ( gain over ), men’s omnium ( and gain over and ), women’s team sprint ( gain over ) and women’s individual sprint/keirin ( x2 over and ).

 

Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)

Several World Cup events were held this month. In Dressage; :ARG :IRL :TUR :MDA :NZL gained an individual quota over :VEN :FIN :LTU :ITA :JPN respectively. While in Jumping the team quota saw gains for :MEX :ESP over :COL :POR inversely, Colombia and Portugal will gain an individual quota, replacing the vacated Mexico and Spain. Additionally there are gains for :POL over :GRE

 

Fencing (Foil)

The Turin Grand Prix was held this month among other events. No changes in any of the foil events.

 

Field Hockey

The Pro League continues. No changes in terms of Olympic projection.

 

Golf

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational were the main events held on the men’s side. However, no changes in terms of Olympic projection.

 

Judo

The Paris and Tashkent Grand Slam were major events held.

 

The following nations gained a men’s quota: :CYP :EGY :GBR :SUI :TJK :TUN

The following nations lost a men’s quota: :COD :ITA :POL :QAT :TUR :ZAM

The following nations gained a women’s quota: :BRA :CHA :COD :EGY :GER :POL :KSA

The following nations lost a women’s quota: :GBR :NED :RUS :ESP :TJK :TUN :TUR

 

Lacrosse

The qualification document was released. No changes to the teams qualified were made.

 

Rugby Sevens

The World Series event in Perth, Australia and the second tier event in Nairobi, Kenya were held this month. No changes on the men’s side while on the women’s side there was some shuffling, but ultimately no one fell off. Argentina did make a case by winning the SVNS 2 tournament while Brazil finished 6th which included a 28-17 win for Argentina. While a good start, I don’t think it’s quite enough to make the swab just yet.

 

Shooting

The Asian Rifle/Pistol Championships were held this month. No updates to the qualification projection.

 

Sport Climbing

The Oceania Speed World Championships were held this month. No updates to the projection.

 

Squash

The Windy City Open among other events were held this month. On the men’s side :GER is now in a qualification position over :QAT . No changes on the women’s side.

 

Surfing

The qualification document was released. There is now less emphasis on the World Surf League and the priority for the continental qualifiers have changed. This has caused some changes to the projections. For the men; :CRC :ECU :MEX are now in qualification positions causing :ITA :JPN :JPN to drop off. On the women’s side; :INA :PUR :ESP are in and :CRC :FRA :FRA are out.

 

Table Tennis

The qualification document was released along with the Singapore Smash. Relative to my estimations a few changes occurred. Quota changes include :AUT :CAN :SVK :SVK losing men’s quotas. They are replaced by :ALG :CZE :ITA :MDA. On the women’s side, :ARG :CUB :CZE :GUA :GUA :MEX :MEX :TUN are replaced by :ALG :COD :IRI :LUX :POL :RUS :SRB :SUI .

Awesome work but i have one question, which event we had in Cycling BMX and Equestrian this months?

[Benolympique 2,438]

On 1/19/2026 at 3:47 PM, JoshMartini007 said:

Nations

Baseball Softball

Basketball

Cricket

Field Hockey

Flag Football

Football

Handball

Lacrosse

Rugby Sevens

Volleyball

Water Polo

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 is out Baseball

 

Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan cannot all qualify.

Edited 2 hours ago by Benolympique

[JoshMartini007 2,840]

14 minutes ago, MatiReimundo said:

Awesome work but i have one question, which event we had in Cycling BMX and Equestrian this months?

Argentina is projected in both men's and women's BMX race and has an individual rider in dressage and jumping.

[JoshMartini007 2,840]

34 minutes ago, Benolympique said:

 is out Baseball

 

Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan cannot all qualify.

Yeah, there will be a lot of changes in baseball in next month's projections. Besides the change in direct qualifiers for the Americas (currently  and  are projected, but  and  have a chance), the European/Oceania quota is now projected to go to  (over Netherlands) and the final quota will be projected to go to  (over Chinese Taipei)

[MatiReimundo 498]

1 hour ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Argentina is projected in both men's and women's BMX race and has an individual rider in dressage and jumping.

no i asked incorrectly, i mean, which sports events we had that changed the rankings for bmx and equestrian?