2024 Paralympics Previews

[Nickyc707 376]

9 hours ago, TeamGB said:

Para Triathlon 

 

11 athletes in 7 events

 

Henry Urand - Men's PTS3 - WR 10 

Finley Jakes - Men's PTS4 - WR 11

Michael Taylor - Men's PTS4 - WR 10 

Dave Ellis - Men's PTVI - WR 1 - World Champion 2023

Oscar Kelly - Men's PTVI - WR 7 

 

Melissa Nichols - Women's PTWC - WR 6

Hannah Moore - Women's PTS4 - WR 4 

Megan Richter - Women's PTS4 - WR 9 

Claire Cashmore - Women's PTS5 - WR 1 - World Silver 2023

Lauren Steadman - Women's PTS5 - WR 11 - World Bronze 2023

Alison Peasgood - Women's PTVI - WR 11

 

GB won a medal of each colour in 2021, and based on the 2023 world championships, they are expected to match that result. Oscar Kelly hasn't lost a race since June 2023 so is a clear favourite. Lauren Steadman is the defending champion but has been suffering from long covid so her form is unknown.

 

My prediction - 1 Gold 4 medals

 

I think you meant Dave Ellis rather than Oscar Kelly!

Edited Friday at 06:02 AM by Nickyc707

[TeamGB 150]

Para Swimming

 

27 athletes in 52 events

 

World Rankings based off entry times

 

Stephen Clegg - Men's 100m Freestyle S12 - WR 4

                          - Men's 100m Backstroke S12 - WR 1

                          - Men's 100m Butterfly S12 - WR 1

Rhys Darbey - Men's 200m IM SM14 - WR 4

Bruce Dee - Men's 100m Breaststroke SB6 - WR 9

                  - Men's 200m IM SM6 - WR 6

William Ellard - Men's 200 m freestyle S14 - WR 1

                       - Men's 100 m backstroke S14 - WR 4

                       - Men's 100 m butterfly S14 - WR 2

                       - Men's 200 m individual medley SM14 - WR 7

Louis Lawlor - Men's 100m backstroke S14 - WR 10

Matthew Redfern - Men's 100m breaststroke SB13 - WR 15

Harry Stewart - Men's 100m breaststroke SB14 - WR 5

Mark Thompsett - Men's 100m backstroke S14 - WR 3 

Cameron Vearncombe - Men's 100m butterfly S14 -  WR 8

                                       - Men's 200m IM SM14 - WR 8

 

Ellie Challis - Women's 100m Freestyle S3 - WR 4

                     - Women's 50m Backstroke S3 - WR 1

Louise Fiddes - Women's 200m Freestyle S14 - WR 4

                         - Women's 100m breaststroke SB14 - WR 3

                        - Women's 100m Butterfly S14 - WR 5

                        - Women's 200m IM SM14 - WR 7

Grace Harvey - Women's 100m Breaststroke SB5 - WR 1

                        - Women's 50m Butterfly S6 - WR 9

                        - Women's 200m IM SM6 - WR 4

Susannah Hext - Women's 100m Freestyle S5 - WR 3

Eliza Humphrey - Women's 400m Freestyle S11 - WR 7

                           - Women's 200m IM SM11 - WR 7

Scarlett Humphrey - Women's 50m Freestyle S11 - WR 8

                                - Women's 400m Freestyle S11 - WR 6

                                - Women's 100m Breaststroke SB11 - WR 5

                                - Women's 200m IM SM11 - WR 6

Tully Kearney - Women's 100m Freestyle S5 - WR 1

                       - Women's 200m Freestyle S5 - WR 1

                        - Women's 50m backstroke S5 - WR 3

Poppy Maskill - Women's 200m freestyle S14 - WR 2

                        - Women's 100m backstroke S14 - WR 1

                        - Women's 100m butterfly S14 - WR 3

                        - Women's 200m IM SM14 - WR 2

Megan Neave - Women's 100m backstroke S14 - WR 4

Olivia Newman Baronius - Women's 200m Freestyle S14 - WR 3

                                          - Women's 100m backstroke S14 - WR 2

                                          - Women's 100m breaststroke SB14 - WR 6

                                          - Women's 100m butterfly SM14 - WR 1

                                          - Women's 200m IM SM14 - WR 4

Rebecca Redfern - Women's 100m breaststroke SB13 - WR 1

Faye Rogers - Women's 100m freestyle S10 - WR 10

                      - Women's 400m freestyle S10 - WR 5

                     - Women's 100m Butterfly S10 - WR 1

                    - Women's 200m IM SM10 - WR 3

Toni Shaw - Women's 100m freestyle S9 - WR 8

                    - Women's 400m freestyle S9 - WR 4

                   - Women's 200m IM SM9 - WR 8

Maisie Summers Newton - Women's 400m freestyle S6 - WR 3

                                          - Women's 100m breaststroke SB6 - WR 1

                                          - Women's 200m IM SM6 - WR 1

Alice Tai - Women's 50m freestyle S8 - WR 4

               - Women's 400m freestyle S8 - WR 2

               - Women's 100m Backstroke S8 - WR 1

               - Women's 100m butterfly S8 - WR 1

               - Women's 200m IM SM8 - WR 6

Callie-Ann Warrington - Women's 100m Freestyle S10 - WR 7

                                      - Women's 100m Butterfly S10 - WR 3

Brock Whiston - Women's 400m freestyle S8 - WR 4

                         - Women's 100m Breaststroke SB8 - WR 1

                         - Women's 100m Butterfly S8 - WR 4

                          - Women's 200m IM SM8 - WR 1

Iona Winnifreth (13 years old!) - Women's 100m breaststroke SB7 - WR 2

                                                   - Women's 50m Butterfly S7 - WR 12

                                                    - Women's 200m IM SM7 - WR 6

 

S14 relay - WR 1

 

In Tokyo, the team won 8 golds an I think they are at that level based on guaranteed golds alone, mainly thanks to the return of Alice Tai and Brock Whiston, who both missed Tokyo. In terms of depth, GB's strongest classification is S14, with a strong group of up and coming teenagers. However, this class is very strong internationally, so there aren't any guaranteed golds apart from the men's 200m free and women's 100m backstroke. The big unknown is neutral athlete Valeriia Shabalina, who on paper is faster or equal to the GB swimmers in 3 events, but many of her times are from a 2022 Russian event, as she was banned from the 2023 worlds.  This squad has a very large gold medal potential, but there are a lot of tight margins (which we saw in the olympics don't always favour GB). Despite this, I expect the squad to easily outperform Tokyo in terms of golds and medals. 

 

My prediction - 15 golds, and 35 medals. 

 

[TeamGB 150]

Table Tennis

 

11 athletes in 14 events

 

Rob Davies - Men's C1 Singles - WR 9 

Tom Matthews - Men's C1 Singles - WR 5

Martin Perry - Men's C6 Singles - WR 7

Paul Karabardak - Men's C6 Singles - WR 14

Will Bayley - Men's C7 Singles - WR 1

Aaron McKibbin - Men's C8 Singles - WR 7

Billy Shilton - Men's C8 Singles - WR 6

Joshua Stacey - Men's C9 Singles - WR 6

 

Rob Davies/Tom Matthews - Men's Doubles MD4 - WR 7

Will Bayley/Martin Perry - Men's Doubles MD14 - WR 6

Paul Karabardak/Billy Shilton - Men's Doubles MD14 - WR 7

Aaron McKibbin/Josh Stacey - Men's Doubles MD18 - WR 1

 

Megan Shackleton - Women's C4 Singles - WR 9

Felicity Pickard - Women's C6 Singles - WR 4

Bly Twomey - Women's C7 Singles - WR 4

 

Felicity Pickard/Bly Twomey - Women's Doubles WD14 - WR 1

 

Tom Matthews/Megan Shackleton - Mixed Doubles XD7 - No rank

Joshua Stacey/Bly Twomey - Mixed Doubles XD17 - WR 5 

 

The world rankings, especially for the doubles are a bit suspect so try not to read too much into them. Thankfully the Chinese aren't as dominant in para table tennis as they are at able bodied, but they are still pretty strong. At the 2022 worlds, which didn't have China competing, the team won 3 golds, 2 silvers and 4 bronzes. Will Bayley will certainly be competitive and there is not ceiling for 14 year old Bly Twomey in her 3 events. Im going to be cautious with my prediction, because the Chinese will probably spoil the party somewhat.

 

My prediction - 1 gold, 5 medals.

[TeamGB 150]

Taekwondo

 

3 athletes in 3 events

 

Matt Bush - Men's +80kg - WR 4 - 2023 World champion

Bath Munro - Women's -65kg - WR 1 - 2023 World Silver

Amy Truesdale - Women's +65kg - WR 2 - 2023 World Champion

 

All 3 athletes medalled at the last worlds and could certainly win gold. With only 10 athletes in each category, only a couple of wins will guarantee a medal. This squad feels a bit like the olympic squad where all athletes are world class and can win gold but can be a bit inconsistent as well. 

 

My prediction - 1 gold, 3 medals

[TeamGB 150]

Team Sports

 

Men's wheelchair basketball team - After bronze in Tokyo, the team won world silver in 2022 and European gold in 2023. The only lost the world championships to the USA 66-67 so they are right up there for gold.

Women's wheelchair basketball team - They lost in quarterfinals in Tokyo and could only manage 9th at the worlds, failing to get out of the group. They won silver at the europeans last year, losing to the world champions Netherlands in the final and winning 1 and losing 1 vs world 4th placed germany. They seem to be on the periphery of a medal but they may need a fortunate draw.

 

Wheelchair rugby team - For me, winning the gold medal in tokyo was the highlight of the games. Their form has been weaker in the last cycle, losing in the quarter finals at the worlds and in the final of the europeans. They could win a medal but they need a good draw and will have to contend with a strong French team with a home crowd.

 

My prediction - 1 gold, 1 medal

[TeamGB 150]

Wheelchair fencing 

 

4 athletes in 10 events

 

Dimitri Coutya - Men's individual épée B - WR 1 - World Silver

                         - Men's individual foil B - WR 1 - World Bronze

                         - Men's individual sabre B - WR 7 

Piers Gilliver - Men's individual épée A - WR 1 - world champion

                      - Men's individual sabre A - WR 1 - World silver

Oliver Lam Watson - Men's individual épée A - WR 18

                                - Men's individual foil A - 13

 

Gemma Collis-McCann - Women's individual épée A - WR 7

                                        - Women's individual sabre A -  WR 6

 

Men's Team Epee - 6th at worlds

Men's Team Foil - 5th at worlds

 

Piers Gilliver won the teams only gold in Tokyo but he has been suffering with concussion. Coutya looks to strongest chance for a gold but the Chinese will be tough to beat. Collis has won world cups before in both events and was ranked world number 1 in the past, so if she can find that form she could challenge

 

My prediction - 0 gold 2 medals

[TeamGB 150]

Wheelchair Tennis

 

8 athletes in 6 events

 

Men's Singles - Ben Bartram - WR 27

                        - Alfie Hewett - WR 1

                        - Gordon Reid - WR 5

                        - Dahnon Ward - WR 26

 

Men's Doubles - Ben Bartam/Dahnon Ward - WR 10 

                           - Alfie Hewett/Gordon Reid - WR 1

 

Women's Singles - Annie Breakwell - WR 46

                              - Lucy Shuker - WR 15

 

Women's Doubles - Lucy Shuker/Annie Breakwell - WR 20

 

Men's Quad Singles - Andy Lapthorne - WR 3

                                  - Greg Slade - WR 9

 

Men's Quad Doubles - Andy Lapthorne/Greg Slade - WR 3

 

 

Hewett and Reid are 5 times defending French open champions so are in a good position to win gold. The mens singles is more open but Hewett should challenge, with Japanese Oda being the favourite. In the quad events, GB need some nice draws but minor medals are on the cards. 

 

My prediction - 1 gold, 2 medals

 

[TeamGB 150]

Overall Predictions

 

 

Gold Medals

 

Sport	Lower total	Predicted total	Upper total
Archery	0	0	3
Athletics	5	10	20
Badminton	0	1	3
Boccia	0	2	4
Road Cycling	4	7	10
Track Cycling	5	6	11
Equestrian	0	2	5
Judo	0	1	3
Canoe Sprint	3	4	6
Triathlon	1	1	3
Powerlifting	0	0	0
Rowing	1	2	3
Shooting	0	0	0
Swimming	11	15	25
Table Tennis	0	1	8
Taekwondo	0	1	3
Basketball	0	1	1
Rugby	0	0	1
Fencing	0	0	6
Tennis	1	1	2
TOTAL	31	55	117

For context, the predicted result would be up 14 golds on Tokyo but down 9 on Rio, and would almost guarantee second on the medal table behind China. For context of how strong China is, they won 96 golds in Tokyo, so GB would need 82% hit rate on gold chances to beat them. 

 

 

Total Medals

 

Sport	Lower Total	Predicted Total	Upper Total
Archery	0	2	4
Athletics	12	30	40
Badminton	0	3	5
Boccia	0	3	6
Road Cycling	5	12	20
Track Cycling	7	14	19
Equestrian	0	5	9
Judo	0	3	3
Canoeing	6	8	9
Triathlon	1	4	6
Powerlifting	0	1	2
Rowing	3	4	4
Shooting	0	0	3
Swimming	20	35	43
Table Tennis	0	5	13
Taekwondo	0	3	3
Basketball	0	1	2
Rugby	0	0	1
Fencing	0	2	10
Tennis	1	2	4
Total	55	137	206

From my predictions, it looks like GB will easily meet their medal target and potentially beat it. This result would be 13 more medals than Tokyo but 10 less than Rio, following the same trend as the gold medals.

 

There is a chance that GB will beat their Rio results but it will likely depend on the fine margins of sport.