Your safest Gold Medal Picks for Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[AsensioWillemsen 176]

22 minutes ago, Surreal said:

In terms of track cycling there are a few near locks I can think of:

 

Harrie Lavreysen : Men's Individual Sprint   - A couple of years ago he was challenged by the Aussie Richardson but he's been a class apart from everyone for the last 18 or so months. Right now I'd pick him to win 3 Golds with the individual sprint a near lock.

 

Emma Finucane: Women's Individual Sprint   - Has dominated this event this past year. Set the fastest Flying 200m time not on altitude at the world champs last year with a 10.2. Still only 21 so will only improve and like Lavreysen is also destined for greatness in Paris imo with 3 Golds not out of the equation for her too.

 

 

Ethan Hayter: Men's Omnium  -  Been tremendous in this discipline ever since Tokyo, In fact I don't even think he's lost an omnium he's competed in since Tokyo (not completely sure, happy to be proven wrong). - One thing I will say about the omnium though is that crashes and luck do sometimes play a major part so I'm much more confident in the previously mentioned riders.

Keirin is such a lottery that I can see Lavreijsen not win it definitely. I can’t really remember a top international Keirin performance by Finucane, she will win the sprint (and battle the team sprint out with the Germans) but I can’t see her take the Keirin from the likes of Friedrich, Andrews and Bayona.

[Surreal 33]

5 minutes ago, AsensioWillemsen said:

Only 2 men, but that’s more than enough.

I consider Fallon, Stubblety Cook, Marchand (If he decides to swim it) and Watanabe all Gold medal threats, all been Sub 2:07 in the last 12 months or so. Qin's only been a 2:08.8 so far this year.

[Surreal 33]

11 minutes ago, AsensioWillemsen said:

Keirin is such a lottery that I can see Lavreijsen not win it definitely. I can’t really remember a top international Keirin performance by Finucane, she will win the sprint (and battle the team sprint out with the Germans) but I can’t see her take the Keirin from the likes of Friedrich, Andrews and Bayona.

Yeah Keirin's a lottery, my post was more about their definite Gold chances in the individual sprint. Finucane definitely the underdog against Friedrich and especially Andrews in that but definitely not impossible for her to beat them.

Edited July 3, 2024 by Surreal

[LDOG 2,480]

Sailing seems to have a "safe pick" for gold in almost every event except windsurfing and women's dinghy.

 

The most obvious is in Nacra, the main Italian crew won the last 3 WChs and (almost) every big event in the cycle as well.

[AsensioWillemsen 176]

1 hour ago, Surreal said:

I consider Fallon, Stubblety Cook, Marchand (If he decides to swim it) and Watanabe all Gold medal threats, all been Sub 2:07 in the last 12 months or so. Qin's only been a 2:08.8 so far this year.

Oh yeah, forgot about Marchand because he may well be not doing that one. Not really considering Watanabe, but he could be up there indeed.

[Dkats 383]

I’ve got 5 locks for gold for Australia 

Woman's 4x100 free

Woman's 4x200 free

Woman's 200 free
Mckeown inevitably winning at least 1 of her 3 strong events

 

Wearn ICLA7 sailing 

[Belle 1,046]

A question about  : is Sjöström on 50m free a safer pick for gold than Duplantis in Pole Vault? 

[phelps 8,728]

5 minutes ago, Belle said:

A question about  : is Sjöström on 50m free a safer pick for gold than Duplantis in Pole Vault? 

imho, no...Mondo has a way bigger margin over his main rivals

 

but should she miss out on the gold medal, it would be a huge upset in any case

[RussB 189]

3 hours ago, Surreal said:

Yeah Keirin's a lottery, my post was more about their definite Gold chances in the individual sprint. Finucane definitely the underdog against Friedrich and especially Andrews in that but definitely not impossible for her to beat them.

I don’t think is accurate at all. For anyone who has been watching this year, Finucane has shown her dominance in the sprint to prove she is clearly the fastest sprinter going into Paris.

 

What was lacking in the past was her race craft in the Keirin. She seems to have improved this throughout the season, and benefited from the confidence of knowing she is the quickest rider and was utterly dominant in winning the Keirin in Hong Kong when she last competed internationally.

I wouldn’t have any rider has a dominant fav in this due to the variability in the event itself, anything can and often does happen, however Finucane should rightly start as the favourite in the Keirin.

A small note on Ellesse; she has had to come back from a really nasty crash for this Olympics, and the missed training is certainly a big hurdle to overcome. She has better medal chances in the Keirin than the individual sprint I believe. 

Edited July 3, 2024 by RussB

[RussB 189]

4 hours ago, Surreal said:

Ethan Hayter: Men's Omnium  -  Been tremendous in this discipline ever since Tokyo, In fact I don't even think he's lost an omnium he's competed in since Tokyo (not completely sure, happy to be proven wrong). - One thing I will say about the omnium though is that crashes and luck do sometimes play a major part so I'm much more confident in the previously mentioned riders.

I’m with you on Harrie and Emma, but I’m nowhere near as confident with Ethan being described as a lock! The men’s Omnium is incredibly tough and relatively wide open with Thomas, Gate, Viviani (form is spotty but I’m sure he will rise to the occasion), possibly even Bibic in the mix for a medal. I have Ethan as my favourite but only narrowly.