Team GB at 2024 Olympic Qualifier Series

[cjsavory 44]

  On 6/20/2024 at 1:28 PM, Olympicsnell said:

what do GB athletes need to do at this event to qualify? am watching the climbing currently and the commentators are really bad in terms of saying who needs to do what to get in, rafa....i'm looking in your direction man with the answers  

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On the Skateboarding side, Sky Brown looks well set to take a quota place - topped the standings in Prelims, and already sits 11th in the Series standings, with 20 to qualify for the Games. Lola Tambling, who came into the Qualifying Event in 19th (but effectively 17th, with USA and Japan both having 4 athletes in the top 20), unfortunately didn't make the Semi Finals, which I imagine will end her chances.

[Epic Failure 355]

  On 6/20/2024 at 4:20 PM, cjsavory said:

On the Skateboarding side, Sky Brown looks well set to take a quota place - topped the standings in Prelims, and already sits 11th in the Series standings, with 20 to qualify for the Games. Lola Tambling, who came into the Qualifying Event in 19th (but effectively 17th, with USA and Japan both having 4 athletes in the top 20), unfortunately didn't make the Semi Finals, which I imagine will end her chances.

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Brown already had a Q sorted, as I don't believe that she could be caught no matter what the results here because of the points from her world ranking.

 

The following is guesswork based on a brief look at the results/rankings, but I suspect Tambling is actually probably still in a Q. The vast majority of the people who finished ahead of her were those already in the rankings above her. Once the 3 per nation is worked out, I think she'll still be in the top 20. My guesswork is that she'll be in 18th.

 

 

 

[mpjmcevoy 362]

  On 6/20/2024 at 9:12 PM, Epic Failure said:

Brown already had a Q sorted, as I don't believe that she could be caught no matter what the results here because of the points from her world ranking.

 

The following is guesswork based on a brief look at the results/rankings, but I suspect Tambling is actually probably still in a Q. The vast majority of the people who finished ahead of her were those already in the rankings above her. Once the 3 per nation is worked out, I think she'll still be in the top 20. My guesswork is that she'll be in 18th.

 

 

 

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I crushed the numbers, and Tambling is, by my count, defo in - when excess NOC places from Japan, Brazil and USA are excluded, she cannot finish lower than functional 20th - she is currently functional 15th with the vast bulk of those still able to get big marks already above here. Sky brown is absolutely safe, obviously.

 

Those in green can earn more points, those in blue are maxed out and those in pink don't matter for other Q purposes because they can only qualify by displacing another of their NOC

 

As can be seen, Q is essentially over for anyone not Aussie, Brazilian American or Japanese - if you aren't fucntionally top 20 now, you aren't going to be, and if you are, you aren't going to fall out.

 

Lilly Strachan is the unlucky loser at 21 (ignore 28), which will make her first reserve - but given france have 2 in the top 20 (functional), they will give up their 'host' space, and Strachan scrapes in as the last Q.

 

happy to be corrected though .

 

[Cinnamon Bun 902]

  On 6/20/2024 at 9:12 PM, Epic Failure said:

Brown already had a Q sorted, as I don't believe that she could be caught no matter what the results here because of the points from her world ranking.

 

The following is guesswork based on a brief look at the results/rankings, but I suspect Tambling is actually probably still in a Q. The vast majority of the people who finished ahead of her were those already in the rankings above her. Once the 3 per nation is worked out, I think she'll still be in the top 20. My guesswork is that she'll be in 18th.

 

 

 

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According to one of the Italian users Pasolini, Tambling makes the cut fairly comfortably with Strachan being first reserve. In other skateboarding news Joe Hinson won't come through the rankings after he failed to make it into the semis.

[Olympicsnell 300]

doing the lords work

[Cinnamon Bun 902]

  On 6/20/2024 at 10:16 PM, mpjmcevoy said:

I crushed the numbers, and Tambling is, by my count, defo in - when excess NOC places from Japan, Brazil and USA are excluded, she cannot finish lower than functional 20th - she is currently functional 15th with the vast bulk of those still able to get big marks already above here. Sky brown is absolutely safe, obviously.

 

Those in green can earn more points, those in blue are maxed out and those in pink don't matter for other Q purposes because they can only qualify by displacing another of their NOC

 

As can be seen, Q is essentially over for anyone not Aussie, Brazilian American or Japanese - if you aren't fucntionally top 20 now, you aren't going to be, and if you are, you aren't going to fall out.

 

Lilly Strachan is the unlucky loser at 21 (ignore 28), which will make her first reserve - but given france have 2 in the top 20 (functional), they will give up their 'host' space, and Strachan scrapes in as the last Q.

 

happy to be corrected though .

 

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I'm pretty sure Benedetti overtakes her into 21st. There is a universality reallocation spot for 22nd, however the Moroccan will take this as a continental quota instead.  

Edited June 20, 2024 by Cinnamon Bun

[mpjmcevoy 362]

  On 6/20/2024 at 10:25 PM, Cinnamon Bun said:

I'm pretty sure Benedetti overtakes her into 21st. There is a universality reallocation spot for 22nd, however the Moroccan will take this as a continental quota instead.  

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You're right - my excel glitched me!

[cjsavory 44]

  On 6/20/2024 at 10:16 PM, mpjmcevoy said:

I crushed the numbers, and Tambling is, by my count, defo in - when excess NOC places from Japan, Brazil and USA are excluded, she cannot finish lower than functional 20th - she is currently functional 15th with the vast bulk of those still able to get big marks already above here. Sky brown is absolutely safe, obviously.

 

Those in green can earn more points, those in blue are maxed out and those in pink don't matter for other Q purposes because they can only qualify by displacing another of their NOC

 

As can be seen, Q is essentially over for anyone not Aussie, Brazilian American or Japanese - if you aren't fucntionally top 20 now, you aren't going to be, and if you are, you aren't going to fall out.

 

Lilly Strachan is the unlucky loser at 21 (ignore 28), which will make her first reserve - but given france have 2 in the top 20 (functional), they will give up their 'host' space, and Strachan scrapes in as the last Q.

 

happy to be corrected though .

 

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This is a very helpful explanation, thanks! Do you have the same data available for Charlotte Worthington? Looking at it, she will effectively start the Final in 10th place (12th going in, but two of the 11 in front of her haven't made the Final), probably needing to overtake four athletes to secure a quota place (China have three in the top nine, and it's two riders per NOC). 

 

Where I get lost is how the remaining five places will get allocated after the qualifying event, based on the 2022/23 World Championships rankings, and whether actually GB&I are pretty much guaranteed a rider in the event either way!

[mpjmcevoy 362]

  On 6/21/2024 at 10:25 AM, cjsavory said:

This is a very helpful explanation, thanks! Do you have the same data available for Charlotte Worthington? Looking at it, she will effectively start the Final in 10th place (12th going in, but two of the 11 in front of her haven't made the Final), probably needing to overtake four athletes to secure a quota place (China have three in the top nine, and it's two riders per NOC). 

 

Where I get lost is how the remaining five places will get allocated after the qualifying event, based on the 2022/23 World Championships rankings, and whether actually GB&I are pretty much guaranteed a rider in the event either way!

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It's slightly complicated, but the bottom line is that GBR are all but guaranteed a quota from the World Champs, subject to enough continents getting in. But the calculation can't happen until the OQS results are in, it's all a bit weird. As it stands, Hannah Roberts will give up her World Champs slot, which will bring Charlotte to the 2nd of three spots in WC, which allows room for an African qualifier. I think one of the chinese might too, and given the Australia is there, africa is probably the only 'continental' spot needed.

 

basically so far we have : French host, 2022 USA, SUI (both of whom are here in top 12), 2023 (same USA H Roberts) CHN GBR - but these aren't confirmed until after the OQS

 

French is therefore irrelevant, as if they get a OQS spot, they cough up the Host spot and 6 becomes 7 anyway

The only continental slots that would be required would be Africa/Oceania, but there's an aussie in the OQS shake up,

There are also two chinese and 2 us in the shakeup - if they  finish with 2 in top 6, they cough up their world champs clots which pushes CW further up in that class.

 

bottom line is I think she can be eliminated, but it would take a VERY specific, very peculiar set of results.

Edited June 21, 2024 by mpjmcevoy

[Cinnamon Bun 902]

  On 6/21/2024 at 10:25 AM, cjsavory said:

This is a very helpful explanation, thanks! Do you have the same data available for Charlotte Worthington? Looking at it, she will effectively start the Final in 10th place (12th going in, but two of the 11 in front of her haven't made the Final), probably needing to overtake four athletes to secure a quota place (China have three in the top nine, and it's two riders per NOC). 

 

Where I get lost is how the remaining five places will get allocated after the qualifying event, based on the 2022/23 World Championships rankings, and whether actually GB&I are pretty much guaranteed a rider in the event either way!

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If thinks stay as they are in the rankings, the following athletes get a quota via continental and worlds: 

 

 Diehm (Continental Quota) 

 (Continental Quota) 

 Muller (2022 Worlds)

 Worthington (2022 Worlds) 

 Villegas Serna (2023 Worlds)

 

The  athlete will drop out of the rankings because she's not here, but she'll take a Worlds spot either way so if one of the above can overtake her then it doesn't affect anything.  Pardoe is currently 1st reserve from 2023 Worlds, but I reckon she'll take a spot as it's quite likely  don't accept their continental quota ( don't tend to accept continental quotas that are so low ranked). 

 

Another way Pardoe can get a quota without having to rely on  rejection is for  Bernegas to drop out of the rankings and exactly 1 of the Worthington, Muller and Villegas Serna along with Diehm take her and the  athlete's place as it would mean an extra spot would open up for Pardoe through 2023 Worlds at the expense of Bernegas.   

Edited June 21, 2024 by Cinnamon Bun