GB Athletics

[Epic Failure 364]

I could go into various detail about all sorts of things that could be considered, but I'll simply say that just because something is working for Ireland here, it doesn't mean it would work for us, nor does it mean that it will necessarily work for them in Paris.

 

Again, we're current world medalists in all 3 4x4 relays, so I would hope that we could perhaps give the athletes/coaches at least some benefit of the doubt for now that they know what they are doing.

 

Personally, I would say that the 4 that ran today all ran pretty well. Carvell is only 19 and held his own against some top quality athletes. Newnham only turned 20 a fortnight ago. Davey and Kelly are both only 23. Whilst I think all 4 stand a chance of being in Paris in the squads, even I don't think that they would be the starting 4. So why are we getting worried about their performance anyway?

 

These Euros, like the 2012 and 2016 Euros before them, were always secondary concerns in an Olympic year. And it is noticeable that uninspiring GBR performances at both those Euros were followed by successful Olympic performances, where we outperformed the European countries that had finished ahead of us in the Euros. Compare that to our Euro peformances in non-Olympic years where we've dominated in recent years.

 

Now if we mess things up in Paris, sure, open season on criticism. But let's at least wait and see first.

[RussB 189]

They are young but I spoke to a member of the relay squad out in Rome tonight and they admitted the team were very disappointed with their showing. I don't think we should be treating them with cotton wool given the targets have got to be Olympic medals in all 3 relays, but more than this, with the talent in the squad they should be aspiring to be pushing for gold in the mixed and silver in each of the other 2 relays. It was exactly the same story at the world relays, where we had to run an extra race in the mixed because we couldn't get it done in the heat to advance straight to the final. I guess it all comes downs to hopes and expectations. I expect to see at least one of the relay squads in Paris compete for a gold. Accordingly, I'm much more invested in the run-up trials for the team and tonight with a young team just fell very flat for me, not being able to compete for a minor medal at this level. In the individual, I don't hold quite the same expectations, but obviously would be delighted if Charlie, Matt or Amber can shock the bigger favs (I'll be in attendance for the men's 400m so defo hope they both make it through to the final and challenge for medals!).

 

The relay squads will have to be rotated and used in Paris, it's not an event you can blast your starting 4 in both heats and finals, especially with the men's individual being so close to the mixed relay. So it REALLY matters if the 4 athletes tonight make the squad. On the men's side I expect 6 to go; if you take out MHS, Dobson and AHW, then you're looking at who beyond that is going to provide quality back-ups (and a 4th spot in the men's final lineup). Carvell, Davey, Harries, Brodie Young are probably the 4 at the head of the pack but the times are really close. Current PBs of 45 mid to high, both boys ran 45.6s tonight (relay splits obv) with the team pushing for 44 relay splits, that's the target.

 

On the ladies side; again we can assume that Anning, Lavaia Nielsen, Ohurougu all go (barring disaster) then the picture looks very messy. Keely is currently sitting at number 5 in the UK rankings over 400 which is quite shocking, so we are looking at Pipi, Lina, Yeargin, Kelly, Newnham, Mary John (another at NCAA finals) to make that jump and move into the low 51s or high 50s on their individual PB. That's what the team needs to take the next step forward, and that's what I'm hoping they can do (preferably in the near future!).

 

[RussB 189]

Still, as I hate being negative, some POSITIVE news coming in from the US... Louie Hinchcliffe has taken the men's 100m NCAA title in a new PB of 9.95 with essentially 0 wind to take over the GB lead this year.

 

Exciting career ahead for the Uni of Houston star under the guidance of Carl Lewis. One to watch out for at trials and an intriguing addition to the mixture possibly in terms of the 4x1 [Hughes, Azu, Hinchcliffe form a very solid basis]

[Epic Failure 364]

Other news from the NCAAs - PBs today from Finlay McLear in the 800m (1:45.66) and Sam Bennett in the high hurdles (13.45). Sam is at Howard, so he has David Oliver as his director. Not a bad role model there.

 

My only worry about the likes of Louie, Amber et al is whether they will be able to translate NCAA form into the later part of the summer. Would be entirely reasonable if they couldn't; we've seen it happen to other before now. So I'm trying not to increase expectations too much. Obviously excited to see what happens and the level of competition should stand them in great stead moving forward anyway (a la Adeleke).

 

Same with MHS and Charlie - with both of them having questionable injury histories, I'm worried if we stretch them too far in Paris and end up hurting our chances in multiple events (and even more so here). As much as the mixed is a real gold chance, I don't want them to risk it if it might impact their individual chances. Especially MHS - he's arguably our second most likely individual medalist after Keely.

 

I'm expecting Carvell and Davey to be there. Davey for last year if nothing else has shown he is a reliable pair of hands. And Carvell has been rewriting his PB this year. Even his 45 mid today is a fairly solid lead off leg. If he could get that down to 45.1-45.2 that would keep us in contention in most races. With his age, that kind of improvement is possible although obviously not guaranteed.

 

A fit Rio Mitchum would be putting his name into the hat. Not seen him all season though.

 

I'm glad the team are disappointed. That shows they have high standard and expectations of themselves. But that doesn't mean we have to be disappointed in them.

 

Now if I were Polish, I would be disappointed in their team...similar to us they had a mostly reserve team out but they were 1.5 seconds behind even our time. And let's not even get started on whatever is happening with French athletics this week! Multiple DQs today and their federation seeming to fail to understand what paperwork is. :D

[Rich 31]

Carvell ran really strongly for a 19 year old with limited experience (think he was third best on leg 1) and has a recent pb only a little faster. 1st leg is by far the hardest. Something went wrong on the first changeover and that put the rest well out of it. It's a disappointing mistake but better here than in the Olympics and hopefully lessons will be learnt. 

 

MHS is not a natural relay runner in the sense that he clearly struggles with his race management in relays  (it's taken him a long time and a hell of an effort to become the individual 400 runner he now is despite huge talent as a junior runner) and so has ended up doing the first leg solidly but unspectacularly. He clearly, and quite sensibly, prioritises his individual race. I don't expect to see him in the mixed in Paris. This year is his chance to win individual Olympic gold (not saying he's favourite) and  I don't think he'll jeopardise that even for the chance of relay gold.

 

Dobson is fragile physically and so races sparingly which is smart. I imagine we'll see him and Hudson Smith in the men's relay in Paris when they've done their individuals. If CD is feeling strong come Paris and with the hope of more Olympics ahead of him, he might do all 3 events.

 

The really promising thing is that seven of the top eight men in the UK have run PBs this year. That's really unusual and encouraging. 

 

The situation for the women is more complicated.

 

Everybody understands that Amber Anning has only limited availability and her season may be mostly run by the Olympics. If you look at how Adeleke and many others have  run at international championships after competing in the NCAAs then it does not indicate that Anning will be at her best. We can hope, and some athletes buck the trend but my guess is she'll be somewhere between 0.5 and a second slower than whatever she runs in the NCAA final. Her uni paid for her training so it's fair enough. 

 

The rest of the  women are of a remarkably similar and decent standard and I think most of them know that when it comes to Paris, they are relay runners who might get a run in the individual. However, because they are so similar, it is important that they focus individually now in the run-up to British championships so the selectors can fairly and objectively identify the top six and in what order. Keely being in the top 5 is purely a function of her being amazing and, in my view, in no way an indictment of the rest.

 

 

Edited June 8, 2024 by Rich

[Grassmarket 4,296]

Elsewhere, rumour is that 17-year old sensation Phoebe Gill is going after Zola Budd’s 40-year old U-20 Mile Record in Watford this afternoon.  Not being streamed live, but will be a big story if she gets it.

Edited June 8, 2024 by Grassmarket

[RussB 189]

Trying not to get too hyped with Phoebe due to her age is really tough, but very keen to follow her progression this summer. Would be incredible if she can make the team.

 

The comment above on MHS and CD I share, I feel they will prioritise the individual and will do the mens relay health permitting. As I said, I’d love it if we prioritised the mixed relay but it’s very unlikely from what we have seen. I have high hopes the older guy Toby H will make the team, did a very solid job in the world relays, it all comes down to trials.

 

Amber and Louie will have that issue of having to peak twice in the same summer which is incredibly tough. I will live in hope they can do it!

 

Poland were indeed very disappointing last night and I have no idea what’s going on with the French !

 

in terms of medal prospects for Paris I have more confidence in Molly and Kerr (keely the best chance) than I do in MHS but that’s just a personal feeling.

 

[TeamGB 216]

1 hour ago, RussB said:

 

in terms of medal prospects for Paris I have more confidence in Molly and Kerr (keely the best chance) than I do in MHS but that’s just a personal feeling.

 

I think Keely has to be our best chance of a medal, and then I would say Molly over Josh (just on the nature of their events), The 400m is just so difficult to predict as even a MHS who runs sub 44 may still miss out on the podium. As much as I would love a full strength mixed 4x400m of MHS, Dobson, Anning, and one other. I think it is too much of a risk to jeopardise medal contenders for individual given 3/4 would have to run in heat as well.

 

 

[RussB 189]

4 minutes ago, TeamGB said:

I think Keely has to be our best chance of a medal, and then I would say Molly over Josh (just on the nature of their events), The 400m is just so difficult to predict as even a MHS who runs sub 44 may still miss out on the podium. As much as I would love a full strength mixed 4x400m of MHS, Dobson, Anning, and one other. I think it is too much of a risk to jeopardise medal contenders for individual given 3/4 would have to run in heat as well.

 

4 minutes ago, TeamGB said:

 

 

I think we are all agreed. I just think we could win an Olympic title if we put our eggs in the mixed relay but they won’t do it for desire for individual honours which to me is preferable than perhaps a bronze in an individual race.

 

keely is our best medal chance for sure. I don’t see Josh being off the podium as Jakob won’t allow the final to be slow and a complete burn up. Pole vault is always a bit variable, Molly had a relatively disastrous showing the other week but hopes are high. It’s on the same night I’m in the stadium in Paris so will be cheering for Molly very loudly!!

[TeamGB 216]

Louie Hinchcliffe was very impressive but again it is about double peaking. The way he finished that 100m, makes me think he would be a better 200m runner, and that event probably has worse depth than the 200m both in the UK and internationally.