Who is a lock to win a Gold Medal at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Timezone 27]

1 minute ago, dullard said:

They've misfired too many times to call them a lock.

They did break their own WR by over 1.5 seconds and beat 2nd place USA by over 4 seconds. Have current world record holder in 200m freestyle in Mollie O 'Callaghan and 3rd fastest swimmer ever in Ariarne Titmus (also owns fastest relay split ever) 

[dullard 699]

3 minutes ago, Timezone said:

They did break their own WR by over 1.5 seconds and beat 2nd place USA by over 4 seconds. Have current world record holder in 200m freestyle in Mollie O 'Callaghan and 3rd fastest swimmer ever in Ariarne Titmus (also owns fastest relay split ever) 

It's true but I still feel uncomfortable calling this relay a lock given the history. One thing they have going for them is the relay doesn't clash with the 100 free anymore.

[Timezone 27]

It will take Sydney Mclaughlin huge drop on form to loose her run in 2023 Wc was breathtaking 

[nenad 442]

13 hours ago, intoronto said:

Is anything really guaranteed in sport? 

Well, I can guarantee you USA will win men's basketball gold. Because this is not an individual sport for something to happen to a favorite like a fall, or illness or something stupid. 

[Jiayou2024 15]

I would think Lasha Talakhadze is a lock for gold if he is competing 

[mpjmcevoy 362]

4 hours ago, heywoodu said:

But there is just no way they are anywhere near a 'lock' for gold, with the rise back to the top of the Australians, the Brits who always have something extra at the Olympics and Hoogland who is going down rather than up.

I agree, although I wonder if the BritSurge was more specifically about Jason Kenny than GB sprinters in general - Hoy ruled the roost the whole time when he was on top, as did Vicky Pendleton in a kind of dual monarchy with Anna Meares. It was Kenny who had the unusual talent for peaking. That said, the dutch sprinters are alien-level good at the moment, even if Hoogland is on the downslope.

 

FWIW, I can see the Brit WOMEN sprinters doing a worldie behind Finucane, who already looks a  generational talent, maybe even more than Becky James (who GBR have sorely missed the last two cycles)

[mpjmcevoy 362]

44 minutes ago, nenad said:

Well, I can guarantee you USA will win men's basketball gold. Because this is not an individual sport for something to happen to a favorite like a fall, or illness or something stupid. 

Their bus could crash. Nothing, nothing is ever 100% locked. But yes, the USA men's team come close.

[mpjmcevoy 362]

12 hours ago, mattiekav119 said:

Dare I say Faith Kipyegon 

She's a legend and a super hot favourite, but no way is she a lock - too many good 1500m runners who could have 'that' day in, say, a wet race.

[Timezone 27]

1 hour ago, nenad said:

Well, I can guarantee you USA will win men's basketball gold. Because this is not an individual sport for something to happen to a favorite like a fall, or illness or something stupid. 

If Embiid doesn't play which is likely considered his injury history USA will find it hard to stop  Serbia who came 2nd in last year World Cup and have bonus of adding the best player in the world. 

[heywoodu 15,141]

2 hours ago, mpjmcevoy said:

I agree, although I wonder if the BritSurge was more specifically about Jason Kenny than GB sprinters in general - Hoy ruled the roost the whole time when he was on top, as did Vicky Pendleton in a kind of dual monarchy with Anna Meares. It was Kenny who had the unusual talent for peaking. That said, the dutch sprinters are alien-level good at the moment, even if Hoogland is on the downslope.

 

FWIW, I can see the Brit WOMEN sprinters doing a worldie behind Finucane, who already looks a  generational talent, maybe even more than Becky James (who GBR have sorely missed the last two cycles)

The Dutch sprinters have been better than they are now, so if there's one moment for them to be beaten, it's the Paris Olympics. Probably their last big thing in this team. Couple of years ago I'd have given them 90-95% or so, now I'd give it at best 75, which is far from a lock