The biggest Paris 2024 medal chances for NOCs where users are not very active here :-)

[nitinsanker 202]

Thailand medal chances 

 

1) taekwondo 

 

Panipak "Tennis" Wongpattanakit top ranked in 49kg ..... Gold medallist at tokyo, twice world champion, gold medallist at Asian Games 2023..... Surely their best chance.... 

 

Banlung Tubtimdang world silver medallist and Asian gold medallist  mens 60 kg.... 

 

couple of others are good in women's lower weights phannapa, chutikan but need to improve 

 

2) badminton 

 

mixed doubles - sapsiree and dechapol ... Ranked 5th

men's singles - kunlavit ... Very young and getting better.... Also I think top 5 .... 

 

3) boxing 

raksat in 50 kg women.... Twice world Championship bronze, defeated nikhat the world champion in the semis so good, couple of others also to watch, but primarily women.... 

 

I feel over all 3-4 medals, anything better would be great

 

 

 

[phelps 7,675]

4 hours ago, nitinsanker said:

Thailand medal chances 

 

1) taekwondo 

 

Panipak "Tennis" Wongpattanakit top ranked in 49kg ..... Gold medallist at tokyo, twice world champion, gold medallist at Asian Games 2023..... Surely their best chance.... 

 

Banlung Tubtimdang world silver medallist and Asian gold medallist  mens 60 kg.... 

 

couple of others are good in women's lower weights phannapa, chutikan but need to improve 

 

2) badminton 

 

mixed doubles - sapsiree and dechapol ... Ranked 5th

men's singles - kunlavit ... Very young and getting better.... Also I think top 5 .... 

 

3) boxing 

raksat in 50 kg women.... Twice world Championship bronze, defeated nikhat the world champion in the semis so good, couple of others also to watch, but primarily women.... 

 

I feel over all 3-4 medals, anything better would be great

 

 

 

don't forget weightlifting, if they are capable of avoiding doping troubles (which would be a shame, as it looks more than evident that they didn't learn anything from the past)

 

however, so far they have (good) chances in the men's -61 and -73 kilos and in the women's -49kg

[nitinsanker 202]

20 minutes ago, phelps said:

don't forget weightlifting, if they are capable of avoiding doping troubles (which would be a shame, as it looks more than evident that they didn't learn anything from the past)

 

however, so far they have (good) chances in the men's -61 and -73 kilos and in the women's -49kg

Agree.... I think 73 is their best weight, 61 men I think they are moving their 55 kg wch gold medallist but will be very very tough as he needs to add around 30 kgs.... So almost impossible

In 49 kgs.... Situation in flux but i think she needs to add 5-6 kgs to be in medal contention.... 

So yes 1 medal possible 2 unlikely

 

[phelps 7,675]

7 minutes ago, nitinsanker said:

Agree.... I think 73 is their best weight, 61 men I think they are moving their 55 kg wch gold medallist but will be very very tough as he needs to add around 30 kgs.... So almost impossible

In 49 kgs.... Situation in flux but i think she needs to add 5-6 kgs to be in medal contention.... 

So yes 1 medal possible 2 unlikely

 

in the men's -61kg they already have Silachai, who's 4th or 5th in the standings, just a few kilos outside the medals...I don't think they would eventually choose anybody else

 

men's 73kg is a  Wichuma vs  Abdullah fight for gold (unless  take out of the fridge Shi)

 

I agree about the girls...but behind  everything is possible for  and maybe even  

[dcmdtruefan 35]

As someone of Thai heritage who was born and lives in the US who has been following Thai sports, I think I can give a good summary of what hopes they have in Paris 2024. I think if you have to analyze Thailand's medal aspirations for next year's Olympics, you have to put them in 3 tiers: 1. Does that are gold medal contenders, 2. Does who are minor medal contenders, but can also be darkhorse gold medal contenders, and 3). Those who have the ability to be in the top 8 of their event and have an outsider's chance of a medal:

 

Tier 1: Gold medal contenders

 

1. Panipak Wongpattanakit (Women's Taekwondo, -49 kg): I think it's obvious what she is top of the list. In Thailand's history, there's no amateur athlete who is as consistent as her. Thus, she is still the best gold medal that they have. However, she's at best a slight favorite in her category as she has been beaten by Turkish and Mexican athletes in the two recent world championships, although she's still very unbeatable in the world grand prix  competitions. The biggest challenge to her defense of 2020 championship is not necessary the quality of her opponents, but maintaining her physical fitness until July 2024 as she has been dealing with some nagging knee injuries for the past year. According to her, she opted out from a knee surgery until the end of Paris 2024 because it will take her several months to recover and she wouldn't be able to be ready for the Olympics. 

 

2. Kunlavut Vitidsarn (Badminton, Men's Singles): The main reasons why Vitidsarn is number 2 in this list are 1). He is the regining world champion and 2). His talent and technical ability is in the elite tier in his event. However, those who may hope for him to be successful next summer must be cautious in placing their hopes in him as he struggles to maintain his physical fitness to an optimal level. Since winning the world championship in August, Vitidsarn's performance have been sub-par. He was eliminated in the round of 16 in the recent Asian Games and has been eliminated in the perliminary round of his two recent world tour competitions in Finland and Denmark. While some can point out to the grueling international tournament schedule as the key reason of his physical struggles, IMO, I believe most of this has to do with his playing style, which is defensive and counter-attack oriented that causes to play most of his matches for more than an hour in average as the lack of effectiveness of the physical/sports science program at his club, Banthongyord, as Thailand is lacking behind countries such China, Japan and Korea in that area. I also think his coaches have not been able to find a tactic to counter the schemes that others have used in dealing with Vitidsarn's strengths and weaknesses. 

 

In an ideal world, I would like Vitidsarn to have the ability to hire a foreign fitness coach as well as a badminton coach from a well-renowned country in the sport to help him as I don't think the Thai mindset and training/tactical methodologies are good enough to push him any further. But since his camp will unlikely to admit such faults, the best that I could hope is for him to maintain peak physical condition come Paris 2024. Due to the very competitive scene in the men's singles, I could see Vitidsarn's performance in Paris having a hige variance from being anywhere from winning the gold medal, to failing to be in the podium or even being knocked out in the permliminary rounds. The fact that Thailand has never won a medal in the sport would be added pressure for him to win a medal, and Thais usually don't do well in dealing with pressure. 

 

Tier 2-Minor medal contenders, darkhorse gold medal contenders:

 

1. Weightlifting- (Men's 73 kg-Weeraphon Wichuma, Women's +81 kg-Duangsakorn Chaidee, Men's 61 kg-Theerapong Silachai, Women's 49 kg-Thanyathorn Sukcharoen).

 

The first two in this list can be gold medal contenders and are almost certain to win a medal next year. Weeraphon is this year's world champion and is number two in the Olympic qualification list. He lost to the number one guy in the list from Indonesia at the Asian Games by about 8 kilograms. There is enough time from now until Paris to catch up with the Indonesian, but to win the gold medal, he has to work on his clean and jerk lift in order to win gold. Duangsakorn's performance in 2022 would have been good enough to guarantee a bronze next year. But it seems like she hasn't done well this year for not lifting more than 280+ kg. If she can go 290 kg without doping, then she can at least win the silver. The other two are good enough to win a bronze, but nothing more than that as they don't the ability to beat the Chinese lifters in their weight category.

 

2. Boxing - (Men's 51 kg-Thitisarn Panmot, Women's 54 kg-Jutamas Jitpong, Women's 50 kg-Chutamat Raksat, Women's 66 kg- Janjaem Suwannaphaeng)

 

While there is no Thai boxer who I consider to be a gold medal contender, a several of them have proven to be worthy of medal contention for their perfomances at they year's Worlds and Asian Games. Among these four in the list, I consider Suwannaphaeng and Panmot to be darkhorses to win gold. Suwannaphaeng won silver at both the worlds and Asian Games and from what I heard from Thai webboards, she could have beaten the Chinese world champion if their contest was held at a neutral site. Panmot is known for being more dynamic and has more offense than the typical Thai amateur boxer who genrally relies on counter attacking punches. He made the quarters in the worlds and won silver at the Asain Games. If he can be improve his fitness from this year as he is coming back from an ACL injury prior to the 2021 Olympics, he might have a chance to beat the Uzbekistani world champion. The other two are good enough to win bronze in Paris, but would need to show more to have a chance to win gold. 

 

3. Banlung Tubtimdang- (Men's Taekwondo-58 kg???/-68 kg?????)

 

Tubtimdang won the silver in the worlds and gold at the Asian Games in the -63 kg category. As the -63 kg event is not in the Olympics, he has to chose whether he will try to qualify for the -58 kg event or -68 kg event. If he chooses the -58 kg, he will likely to be a notable medal contender due to his height and skillset and can be a darkhouse gold medal threat. The question is not about whether he is good enough because as some may see him in the Asian games, he has elite tier athleticism and talent, but it is about whether he has the desire and discipline to power his weight and compete in the -58 kg event where he would have a notable height and physical advantage over the competition. 

 

4. Atthaya Thitikul (Women's Golf)

 

Thitikul was the number one player in the world for a good portion of 2022 before having a slight decline and now is currently the 12th ranked player in the world. Despite not winning any championships as of late, she usually makes or is near the top 10 of most of her tournaments. She definitley has elite talent and has an opportunity to win a medal pending on her form during next summer as well as the how well can she adapt to the conditions of the course that will be used for the Olympics. 

 

Tier 3-Outsiders chance of winning a medal

 

1. Boxing (Men's 63.5 kg, Women's 75 kg)

 

There are other notable athletes that has proven to have performances that is worthy of being a medal contenter like the former world champions in badminton mixed doubles of Dechapol and Sapsiree, Skeet shooter Sutiya Jiewchaloemmit, former world champion in women's singles in badminton, Ratchanok Intanon for instance. But the reason that they and others are not included in my list because they either has past their peak and not currently good enough to compete for a medal or don't have the consistency to be counted on to win a medal.

 

Overall, I think the medal target to at least show some improvement from 2021 is to win 2 gold medals and to have an overall of around 4-6 medals. Personally, I think Thailand could slightly improve from how they did in Tokyo, but I can also see them failing to win any gold medals and may have a subpar performance of winning no more than 3 overall medals. The reason that I am vary about Thailand's performance in Paris is that Thai athletes in general don't handle pressure well. I think it has to do with the cultural aspect of Thais not liking to be working in high pressured environments that has contributed to such problem. I also think the fact that the country is lagging in its sport science development is the factor of why their athletes don't have the stamina and endurance that other countries do. Hence, Thailand does not have the level of success in terms of Olympic medals that other B-tier Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Chinese Taipei or India have. It doesn't help that their sport administration capabilities is hundered by a bunch of politicians, social elites and bureaucrats coming into such positions and not implementing policies that advances the sport industry.     

 

  

Edited October 19, 2023 by dcmdtruefan

[rafalgorka 1,522]

4 minutes ago, dcmdtruefan said:

As someone of Thai heritage who was born and lives in the US who has been following Thai sports, I think I can give a good summary of what hopes they have in Paris 2024.  

 

  

This is awesome, thanks a lot!!!

[rafalgorka 1,522]

Some NOCs I would personally like to mention in this thread later on:

 

Europe - (already done it)

Africa -

Asia -

Americas -

Oceania -

 

And we already talked about -

[rafalgorka 1,522]

Thoughts on anyone?

[nitinsanker 202]

46 minutes ago, dcmdtruefan said:

As someone of Thai heritage who was born and lives in the US who has been following Thai sports, I think I can give a good summary of what hopes they have in Paris 2024. I think if you have to analyze Thailand's medal aspirations for next year's Olympics, you have to put them in 3 tiers: 1. Does that are gold medal contenders, 2. Does who are minor medal contenders, but can also be darkhorse gold medal contenders, and 3). Those who have the ability to be in the top 8 of their event and have an outsider's chance of a medal:

 

Tier 1: Gold medal contenders

 

1. Panipak Wongpattanakit (Women's Taekwondo, -49 kg): I think it's obvious what she is top of the list. In Thailand's history, there's no amateur athlete who is as consistent as her. Thus, she is still the best gold medal that they have. However, she's at best a slight favorite in her category as she has been beaten by Turkish and Mexican athletes in the two recent world championships, although she's still very unbeatable in the world grand prix  competitions. The biggest challenge to her defense of 2020 championship is not necessary the quality of her opponents, but maintaining her physical fitness until July 2024 as she has been dealing with some nagging knee injuries for the past year. According to her, she opted out from a knee surgery until the end of Paris 2024 because it will take her several months to recover and she wouldn't be able to be ready for the Olympics. 

 

2. Kunlavut Vitidsarn (Badminton, Men's Singles): The main reasons why Vitidsarn is number 2 in this list are 1). He is the regining world champion and 2). His talent and technical ability is in the elite tier in his event. However, those who may hope for him to be successful next summer must be cautious in placing their hopes in him as he struggles to maintain his physical fitness to an optimal level. Since winning the world championship in August, Vitidsarn's performance have been sub-par. He was eliminated in the round of 16 in the recent Asian Games and has been eliminated in the perliminary round of his two recent world tour competitions in Finland and Denmark. While some can point out to the grueling international tournament schedule as the key reason of his physical struggles, IMO, I believe most of this has to do with his playing style, which is defensive and counter-attack oriented that causes to play most of his matches for more than an hour in average as the lack of effectiveness of the physical/sports science program at his club, Banthongyord, as Thailand is lacking behind countries such China, Japan and Korea in that area. I also think his coaches have not been able to find a tactic to counter the schemes that others have used in dealing with Vitidsarn's strengths and weaknesses. 

 

In an ideal world, I would like Vitidsarn to have the ability to hire a foreign fitness coach as well as a badminton coach from a well-renowned country in the sport to help him as I don't think the Thai mindset and training/tactical methodologies are good enough to push him any further. But since his camp will unlikely to admit such faults, the best that I could hope is for him to maintain peak physical condition come Paris 2024. Due to the very competitive scene in the men's singles, I could see Vitidsarn's performance in Paris having a hige variance from being anywhere from winning the gold medal, to failing to be in the podium or even being knocked out in the permliminary rounds. The fact that Thailand has never won a medal in the sport would be added pressure for him to win a medal, and Thais usually don't do well in dealing with pressure. 

 

Tier 2-Minor medal contenders, darkhorse gold medal contenders:

 

1. Weightlifting- (Men's 73 kg-Weeraphon Wichuma, Women's +81 kg-Duangsakorn Chaidee, Men's 61 kg-Theerapong Silachai, Women's 49 kg-Thanyathorn Sukcharoen).

 

The first two in this list can be gold medal contenders and are almost certain to win a medal next year. Weeraphon is this year's world champion and is number two in the Olympic qualification list. He lost to the number one guy in the list from Indonesia at the Asian Games by about 8 kilograms. There is enough time from now until Paris to catch up with the Indonesian, but to win the gold medal, he has to work on his clean and jerk lift in order to win gold. Duangsakorn's performance in 2022 would have been good enough to guarantee a bronze next year. But it seems like she hasn't done well this year for not lifting more than 280+ kg. If she can go 290 kg without doping, then she can at least win the silver. The other two are good enough to win a bronze, but nothing more than that as they don't the ability to beat the Chinese lifters in their weight category.

 

2. Boxing - (Men's 51 kg-Thitisarn Panmot, Women's 54 kg-Jutamas Jitpong, Women's 50 kg-Chutamat Raksat, Women's 66 kg- Janjaem Suwannaphaeng)

 

While there is no Thai boxer who I consider to be a gold medal contender, a several of them have proven to be worthy of medal contention for their perfomances at they year's Worlds and Asian Games. Among these four in the list, I consider Suwannaphaeng and Panmot to be darkhorses to win gold. Suwannaphaeng won silver at both the worlds and Asian Games and from what I heard from Thai webboards, she could have beaten the Chinese world champion if their contest was held at a neutral site. Panmot is known for being more dynamic and has more offense than the typical Thai amateur boxer who genrally relies on counter attacking punches. He made the quarters in the worlds and won silver at the Asain Games. If he can be improve his fitness from this year as he is coming back from an ACL injury prior to the 2021 Olympics, he might have a chance to beat the Uzbekistani world champion. The other two are good enough to win bronze in Paris, but would need to show more to have a chance to win gold. 

 

3. Banlung Tubtimdang- (Men's Taekwondo-58 kg???/-68 kg?????)

 

Tubtimdang won the silver in the worlds and gold at the Asian Games in the -63 kg category. As the -63 kg event is not in the Olympics, he has to chose whether he will try to qualify for the -58 kg event or -68 kg event. If he chooses the -58 kg, he will likely to be a notable medal contender due to his height and skillset and can be a darkhouse gold medal threat. The question is not about whether he is good enough because as some may see him in the Asian games, he has elite tier athleticism and talent, but it is about whether he has the desire and discipline to power his weight and compete in the -58 kg event where he would have a notable height and physical advantage over the competition. 

 

4. Atthaya Thitikul (Women's Golf)

 

Thitikul was the number one player in the world for a good portion of 2022 before having a slight decline and now is currently the 12th ranked player in the world. Despite not winning any championships as of late, she usually makes or is near the top 10 of most of her tournaments. She definitley has elite talent and has an opportunity to win a medal pending on her form during next summer as well as the how well can she adapt to the conditions of the course that will be used for the Olympics. 

 

Tier 3-Outsiders chance of winning a medal

 

1. Boxing (Men's 63.5 kg, Women's 75 kg)

 

There are other notable athletes that has proven to have performances that is worthy of being a medal contenter like the former world champions in badminton mixed doubles of Dechapol and Sapsiree, Skeet shooter Sutiya Jiewchaloemmit, former world champion in women's singles in badminton, Ratchanok Intanon for instance. But the reason that they and others are not included in my list because they either has past their peak and not currently good enough to compete for a medal or don't have the consistency to be counted on to win a medal.

 

Overall, I think the medal target to at least show some improvement from 2021 is to win 2 gold medals and to have an overall of around 4-6 medals. Personally, I think Thailand could slightly improve from how they did in Tokyo, but I can also see them failing to win any gold medals and may have a subpar performance of winning no more than 3 overall medals. The reason that I am vary about Thailand's performance in Paris is that Thai athletes in general don't handle pressure well. I think it has to do with the cultural aspect of Thais not liking to be working in high pressured environments that has contributed to such problem. I also think the fact that the country is lagging in its sport science development is the factor of why their athletes don't have the stamina and endurance that other countries do. Hence, Thailand does not have the level of success in terms of Olympic medals that other B-tier Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Chinese Taipei or India have. It doesn't help that their sport administration capabilities is hundered by a bunch of politicians, social elites and bureaucrats coming into such positions and not implementing policies that advances the sport industry.     

 

  

Very comprehensive.... Thanks 

[nitinsanker 202]

17 minutes ago, rafalgorka said:

Thoughts on anyone?

Can we do Pakistan... It is a country I follow closely