Canada's 2024 Olympics Qualification Discussion

[Josh 11,129]

@james89 @intoronto@Topicmaster1010@Surlympics@NearPup @JoshMartini007thoughts??

[NearPup 3,251]

  On 2/7/2024 at 11:44 PM, Josh said:

CBC Sports has released the Gracenote simulation for projected Canadian medals at Paris 2024. Here’s the first 16 (out of 23) medalists, as the article doesn’t highlight all of them. 
 

Gold (6): Christa Deguchi (judo- women’s -57kg), Summer McIntosh (swimming- women’s 400m individual medley), Summer McIntosh (swimming- women’s 200m butterfly), Philip Kim (breaking- b-boys), Marco Arop (athletics- men’s 800m), Pierce LePage (athletics- decathlon)

Silver (8): Katie Vincent (canoe sprint- women’s C1-200m), Katie Vincent/Sophia Jensen (canoe sprint- women’s C2-500m), Damian Warner (athletics- decathlon), men’s 4x100m relay (athletics), ?, ?, ?, ?

Bronze (9): Women’s eights (rowing), Josh Liendo (swimming- men’s 100m butterfly), Kylie Masse (swimming- women’s 100m backstroke), Maggie MacNeil (swimming- women’s 100m butterfly), Ethan Katzberg (athletics- men’s hammer throw), Sarah Mitton (athletics- women’s shot put), ?, ?, ?

 

Kylie Masse winning bronze in an individual event is optimistic, she’s been well off her times lately, and the second American (behind Smith) is likely to out-touch her. Don’t see us winning any medals in rowing either, with the way things have been going with Rowing Canada. There’s one medal contender that I’m surprised isn’t on the list however, I think they’re underestimating our women’s 3x3 basketball team. 

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I do not take Gracenote very seriously :P

 

I think McIntosh will very likely win at least three golds. Deguchi, Arop, Kim and Lepage are all contenders for gold, but they are far from locks.

 

In general Canada can be pretty hard to predict because we have a lot of depth, but other than McIntosh we don't have any heavy favorites.

[intoronto 5,903]

I am hoping for a Canadian man to win a medal outside athletics.

Edited February 8, 2024 by intoronto

[Surlympics 901]

I defintely think degrasse will rebound in the individual events to win a couple medals , Maude Charon and boady Santavy will win a medal in weightlifting, Ilya kharun in 200m fly and several relays , a couple more judo medals either by cbp, Arthur, shady, Dylan bibic may surprise in the omnium, and I’m really feeling our women’s  4 by 400m will finally pick up bronze . Our men’s basketball has a great shot with our nba talent, Tamara thibeault in boxing, and a couple in tennis with the combo of dabrowski, Felix and leylah in singles / and or doubles. Melissa and Brandie in beach volleyball. Erin brooks in surfing .  Fencing I can see a medal especially in women’s foil team or individual. And Felix dolci may surprise in either individual all around or floor along with Ellie black in the all around. And definitely a medal by Kelsey or genest in Keirin or sprint . A diving medal by ware or McKay or both hopefully :D our women’s 3 by 3 basketball and regular team . Would love to see woods or Jackson in the road race or time trial , Brooke Henderson or one of our men in golf, women’s soccer , women’s team artistic gymnastics, one of our volleyball teams win a medal. Unfortunately for women’s wrestling (which we use to do so well in) is highly corrupt and doped up right now so chances are low in that discipline. And there are always a few surprise medals which we can’t see coming right now

Edited February 8, 2024 by Surlympics

[james89 875]

  On 2/8/2024 at 12:57 AM, intoronto said:

I am hoping for a Canadian man to win a medal outside athletics.

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And I really hope it’s in the 4x100m freestyle relay!

[Josh 11,129]

  On 2/8/2024 at 12:57 AM, intoronto said:

I am hoping for a Canadian man to win a medal outside athletics.

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Chances in swimming, boxing, breaking, basketball, gymnastics, and maybe tennis/weightlifting/archery. I’d say it’s highly likely to happen, Philip Kim has constantly been on the podium at the last three World Championships. 

[Josh 11,129]

  On 2/7/2024 at 11:44 PM, Josh said:

CBC Sports has released the Gracenote simulation for projected Canadian medals at Paris 2024. Here’s the first 16 (out of 23) medalists, as the article doesn’t highlight all of them. 
 

Gold (6): Christa Deguchi (judo- women’s -57kg), Summer McIntosh (swimming- women’s 400m individual medley), Summer McIntosh (swimming- women’s 200m butterfly), Philip Kim (breaking- b-boys), Marco Arop (athletics- men’s 800m), Pierce LePage (athletics- decathlon)

Silver (8): Katie Vincent (canoe sprint- women’s C1-200m), Katie Vincent/Sophia Jensen (canoe sprint- women’s C2-500m), Damian Warner (athletics- decathlon), men’s 4x100m relay (athletics), ?, ?, ?, ?

Bronze (9): Women’s eights (rowing), Josh Liendo (swimming- men’s 100m butterfly), Kylie Masse (swimming- women’s 100m backstroke), Maggie MacNeil (swimming- women’s 100m butterfly), Ethan Katzberg (athletics- men’s hammer throw), Sarah Mitton (athletics- women’s shot put), ?, ?, ?

 

Kylie Masse winning bronze in an individual event is optimistic, she’s been well off her times lately, and the second American (behind Smith) is likely to out-touch her. Don’t see us winning any medals in rowing either, with the way things have been going with Rowing Canada. There’s one medal contender that I’m surprised isn’t on the list however, I think they’re underestimating our women’s 3x3 basketball team. 

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Emailed CBC Sports inquiring about the remaining seven medalists, here’s the full list. 
 

Silver: Women’s team (Artistic swimming), Tammara Thibeault (boxing- women’s 75kg), Summer McIntosh (swimming- women’s 400m freestyle), Camryn Rogers (athletics- women’s hammer throw)

 

Bronze: Caeli McKay (women’s 10m platform), Summer McIntosh (women’s 200m individual medley), Catherine Beauchemin Pinard (judo- women’s 63kg)

 

Sorry but a silver in artistic swimming? Don’t see it happening. I’d even give more chances in the duet event. But like @NearPup said, this projection only has McIntosh (a generational talent) only winning two individual golds (certainly is possible, but not my point) so I can’t really take it seriously. It also doesn’t have DeGrasse winning any individual medals, or our women’s 3x3 team medaling. 
 

Personally I’d say 7 gold, and around 22-24 medals. 

Edited February 10, 2024 by Josh

[NearPup 3,251]

  On 2/10/2024 at 3:12 AM, Josh said:

Emailed CBC Sports inquiring about the remaining seven medalists, here’s the full list. 
 

Silver: Women’s team (Artistic swimming), Tammara Thibeault (boxing- women’s 75kg), Summer McIntosh (swimming- women’s 400m freestyle), Camryn Rogers (athletics- women’s hammer throw)

 

Bronze: Caeli McKay (women’s 10m platform), Summer McIntosh (women’s 200m individual medley), Catherine Beauchemin Pinard (judo- women’s 63kg)

 

Sorry but a silver in artistic swimming? Don’t see it happening. I’d even give more chances in the duet event. But like @NearPup said, this projection only has McIntosh (a generational talent) only winning two individual golds (certainly is possible, but not my point) so I can’t really take it seriously. It also doesn’t have DeGrasse winning any individual medals, or our women’s 3x3 team medaling. 
 

Personally I’d say 7 gold, and around 22-24 medals. 

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Fun fact: this prediction is technically 100% wrong since artistic swimming no longer has a women’s team event. It is now technically a mixed event :3

[JoshMartini007 2,570]

The silver in artistic swimming comes from Canada's performance at the World Cup level. Unfortunately many top nations do not participate at the World Cup so Canada gets overinflated.

 

That's what happens when you take results in a vacuum without taking context into account.

[Josh 11,129]

  On 2/10/2024 at 4:14 AM, NearPup said:

Fun fact: this prediction is technically 100% wrong since artistic swimming no longer has a women’s team event. It is now technically a mixed event :3

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Ok, but let’s be honest no Canadian male athletes will be qualifying for the mixed team in artistic swimming. 

Edited February 10, 2024 by Josh