Tennis Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[Benolympique 2,164]

1 hour ago, Makedonas said:

Yes but he is 35, almost 36 yo, and has never participated at the Olympics before, and this time it is in his home country!

anyway he was never excited by the games, and I prefer Moutet who was the darling of the public at Roland Garros

[CCB 526]

 

 

Only 1 men qualifies for the men's singles tournament: Tallon Griekspoor.

Normally 1 men qualifies for the men's doubles tournament: Wesley Koolhof (because he is a top 10 doubles player).

 

There is a problem at the women's side.

 

Demi Schuurs didn't play at Roland Garros because of an injury. She will be around #20 at the doubles ranking. Only the top 10 of the doubles ranking is guaranteed of a place in the doubles tournament. After that they will look at Combined Ranking. 

 

Question: is there any chance Schuurs #20 and Arantxa Rus #60 (singles ranking) qualify for the women's doubles?

 

I don't know how to read and understand the qualification document exactly.

[Makedonas 1,965]

7 minutes ago, CCB said:

 

 

Only 1 men qualifies for the men's singles tournament: Tallon Griekspoor.

Normally 1 men qualifies for the men's doubles tournament: Wesley Koolhof (because he is a top 10 doubles player).

 

There is a problem at the women's side.

 

Demi Schuurs didn't play at Roland Garros because of an injury. She will be around #20 at the doubles ranking. Only the top 10 of the doubles ranking is guaranteed of a place in the doubles tournament. After that they will look at Combined Ranking. 

 

Question: is there any chance Schuurs #20 and Arantxa Rus #60 (singles ranking) qualify for the women's doubles?

 

I don't know how to read and understand the qualification document exactly.

Yes, Rus/Schuurs will easily qualify, the cutoff right now is around 110 without withdrawals.

 

For men the cutoff is higher, but the Netherlands will probably have 2 men's doubles teams.

[Makedonas 1,965]

I will try right now to paint the picture (using current live rankings which may change) for women's doubles:

 

Automatically qualified, based on top 10:

 (Mertens with whoever she chooses in top 300, it is impossible for Belgium to qualify another team otherwise)

 (This one is complicated because Hsieh doesn't get along with the Chan sisters, so she will probably play with Wu, but L.Chan hasn't played since last year so if she has a protected ranking she can use it to enter with her sister, otherwise Hsieh can play with someone else and H.Chan will qualify by ranking with Wu so they have two teams but I think it is more likely to see Hsieh/Wu and then if L.Chan is retired or injured then they will only have one team in Paris)

 (Routliffe can choose to play with Sun or Hourigan only, as they have no one else in top 300 and no chance to qualify a second team)

 (Dabrowski with whoever she chooses, probably Fernandez. If she chooses someone like Marino then Andreescu/Fernandez can also qualify via ranking, but I think she will pick Fernandez so Canada will only have one team)

 (This is another tricky situation because they can possibly get two teams depending on which combination they go with, but I think the likely one is Kerber/Siegemund which means the next highest ranked pair is Korpatsch/Maria and they would need a bunch of withdrawals to get in, now if Siegemund plays with Maria for example Kerber/Korpatsch will probably qualify)

 (Zvonareva is top 10 and I don't know what pairings they will use but Russia will definitely qualify 2 teams)

 (Hunter and Perez are top 10 but Hunter is injured-long term and will miss Paris, so the other AUS spot gets reallocated to the combined ranking route. Gadecki/Tomljanovic would probably qualify by ranking so if Hunter chooses someone else like Saville or Sharma, then AUS can have two teams. If she plays with Gadecki or Tomljanovic then chances are low for AUS to have a second team)

 (Melichar is top 10 but like Russia they will have two teams regardless)

 (Siniakova is top 10 but they will have two teams regardless)

 

So based on the above, we will definitely have these 12 teams:             

With    each potentially adding another team, so we'll say yes for now and that makes 15 teams

 

   will all also have 2 teams by ranking, so now we're up to 21 and this is where things get complicated.

    can all only have 1 team by ranking, probably Bucsa/Sorribes Tormo, Rus/Schuurs, Danilina/Rybakina, Azarenka/Sabalenka.

 can have 2 teams by ranking, but only if Swiatek plays with Kawa or Piter, which I'm sure won't happen, so they will also probably have just 1 team which would be Swiatek with Frech or Linette. So that's 26 teams.

 I think were aiming for 2 teams, with Stefani getting a top 10 spot to play with Pigossi who is outside the top 100 but they won bronze together in Tokyo, and Haddad Maia with Gamarra Martins who would also qualify by ranking. Now Stefani is 11 and withdrew from Roland Garros so  can only have 1 team in Paris probably and probably Pigossi won't play, it'll be 2 of the other 3 girls. Only chance for Pigossi/Stefani is if there are a ton of withdrawals or if Pigossi wins a big 125k or something in singles next week and rises into the top 100, but as of now only 1 team for Brazil, so that's 27.

 

 played with Boulter/Watson at Roland Garros so probably that will be their team for Paris. With other combinations they could possibly qualify a second team if they do Boulter/Nicholls and Lumsden/Watson but that still wouldn't be 100% certain so they'll likely stick with the 1 team, becoming the 28th team.

 

 won't need to use their host spot as Garcia/Mladenovic will qualify anyways, and then Burel/Parry would be borderline, but if Gracheva wins her next match at Roland Garros then she would move up a lot in the rankings and Burel/Gracheva would definitely make the cut, but let's say for now France only has 1 team, so that's 29.

 

 Based on their historical partnerships, I think we see Begu/Niculescu qualify and then Bogdan/Cristian are borderline. Cirstea hasn't played for the national team since 2018 so I don't think they could even make an exemption for her, and she didn't seem to care about missing Tokyo so I don't expect her to be in Paris either.

 

 Errani/Paolini will qualify and Bronzetti/Cocciaretto are borderline. That is 31 teams.

 

Now for the last spot, based on the current live rankings:

 Burel/Parry (106)

------------------------------------------------

 Grammatikopoulou/Sakkari (108) - But Sakkari said she wants to play with Papamichail, but Papamichail/Sakkari would be 118 right now, so if they don't make it then I guess she will still try with Grammatikopoulou? I'm not sure.

 Bronzetti/Cocciaretto (110)

 Bogdan/Cristian (118)

 Martic/Vekic (119)

 Babos/Bondar (119)

 Badosa/Bouzas Maneiro (120)

 Ostapenko/Semenistaja (126) - I think Sevastova has a higher protected ranking that would get her in with Ostapenko but I think she has a bad injury and won't be able to make Paris. Not 100% sure though.

 Frech/Kawa (128) - If the first team is Linette/Swiatek.

 Olmos/Zarazua (129)

 Pigossi/Stefani (130) - If Brazil chooses Gamarra Martins/Haddad Maia, otherwise Pigossi with one of the others would be even lower than 130.

 Lumsden/Nicholls (131)

 Mihalikova/Schmiedlova (134)

 

Of course also we don't know what     will decide, but if they only have 1 team each then it's possible for more teams after Burel/Parry to get in.

 

Edited June 1 by Makedonas

[Federer91 2,284]

Is Viktoria Tomova good for the quota? I haven't checked if those around her are playing ITFs next week.

[Makedonas 1,965]

Here are the possibilities for some second teams:

 Gadecki/Tomljanovic (106) - with Perez/Saville as the first team

 Saville/Tomljanovic (117) - might be too low, with Gadecki/Perez as the first team

 

I think AUS will go with Perez/Saville and Gadecki/Tomljanovic which would give them more quotas and also Perez/Saville probably has a better chance than Perez/Tomljanovic which would mean Gadecki/Saville (157) would have no chance to qualify.

 

 Kerber/Maria (92) - I can't see Korpatsch/Siegemund as the main team but maybe Siegemund would play with someone like Friedsam or NIemeier, she is top 10 anyways so she can choose anyone she wants

 Kerber/Korpatsch (105) - With Siegemund playing with Maria or Friedsam, Niemeier, etc.

 Korpatsch/Maria (135) - Too low to qualify, so if Germany goes with Kerber/Siegemund, which I think is more likely than Australia going with Perez/Tomljanovic, then Germany has no chance for a second team

 

 

So I think  will have two teams,  maybe 50/50,  only 1 team, and  it really depends on if L.Chan will play, or if Hsieh will choose someone other than Wu (and obviously she won't choose H.Chan as they hate each other)

[Makedonas 1,965]

8 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

Is Viktoria Tomova good for the quota? I haven't checked if those around her are playing ITFs next week.

Based on my calculations she is last in currently, but I'm sure there will be a few withdrawals.

 

She could still miss out though especially if those around her do well in ITFs/125Ks next week (Cristian, Sherif, Golubic, Osorio, Schmiedlova, Uchijima), or if Gracheva makes QF, Danilovic makes SF in Roland Garros.

[JoshMartini007 2,397]

I don't think Angella Okutoyi will make the top 400 (currently she's 502). The African quota likely goes to Mayar Sherif (the Egyptian silver medalist is ranked even lower) who would have qualified through the rankings normally.

[CCB 526]

@MakedonasThanks a lot for your detailed explanation. Very nice!

 

And of course good to hear that Schuurs and Rus are in. Now we have to wait what Schuurs want. Last Fed Cup-weekend Rus canceled her participation without giving a reason. Schuurs was very angry about that. But now it looks like she needs Rus to go to the Olympics.

[Makedonas 1,965]

1 minute ago, CCB said:

@MakedonasThanks a lot for your detailed explanation. Very nice!

 

And of course good to hear that Schuurs and Rus are in. Now we have to wait what Schuurs want. Last Fed Cup-weekend Rus canceled her participation without giving a reason. Schuurs was very angry about that. But now it looks like she needs Rus to go to the Olympics.

Yes, Rus is her only chance to go to the Olympics, as she can't compete in mixed doubles without competing in women's doubles, and mixed doubles is really where she has a chance to win a medal.