Men's Rugby Sevens Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Josh 13,529]

2 hours ago, Epic Failure said:

Honestly, it's a shame both teams won't be in Paris. Partially their fault, partially the way the qualification system is set up.

There’s absolutely no excuse for South Africa losing to Kenya, they should’ve won their continental championships. Don’t blame the qualification system for that. 

[Benolympique 2,441]

2 hours ago, Epic Failure said:

Adding Singapore's results to the table

 

3rd

6th

10th

12th

 

Okay, I'm slightly less defeatist about after this weekend. They thumped both France and Australia, as well as being a botched pass away from beating Ireland in the SF.

 

I'm still worried about South Africa finding a way to win (too many actual rugby world cups have conditioned me to assume they'll *always* find a way) but I at least think GBR should be competitive.

 

Honestly, it's a shame both teams won't be in Paris. Partially their fault, partially the way the qualification system is set up.

 

I really hope they qualify for the Olympics.

[Epic Failure 364]

26 minutes ago, Josh said:

There’s absolutely no excuse for South Africa losing to Kenya, they should’ve won their continental championships. Don’t blame the qualification system for that. 

That's why I said it is partially their fault.

 

But the qualifying system also has given us a place for Japan (who are about 6th on the Challenger circuit) and Uruguay (who are at least winning the Challenger circuit at the moment). Both RSA and GBR would expect to beat those two sides 99 times out of 100.

 

It is what it is. It's just an example of increased continental representation ahead of the best ranked teams. It's not the only sport which has made that choice. In some sports where there are much bigger quotas it is less noticeable but when you have only 12 teams in total it's more obvious.

Edited May 6, 2024 by Epic Failure

[SalamAkhi 359]

H2H between  and  is actually 2-2 with one large victory for each and two disputed games going both ways.

 

 2 - 1 

[Cinnamon Bun 911]

19 hours ago, Epic Failure said:

That's why I said it is partially their fault.

 

But the qualifying system also has given us a place for Japan (who are about 6th on the Challenger circuit) and Uruguay (who are at least winning the Challenger circuit at the moment). Both RSA and GBR would expect to beat those two sides 99 times out of 100.

 

It is what it is. It's just an example of increased continental representation ahead of the best ranked teams. It's not the only sport which has made that choice. In some sports where there are much bigger quotas it is less noticeable but when you have only 12 teams in total it's more obvious.

In all honesty this is one of the best qualification system out of all of the sports. It mixes the best in the world with the best in each in continent. With sports like this you're always gonna get continents who are way behind the rest, so it's expected that we have some Challenger teams in there. 8 times out of 10 both GB and South Africa would be in, but like Josh said South Africa's own failures against Kenya has caused this situation. There probably should be 16 teams instead of 12, but the quota problem is universal across all sports and the IOC need to sort it out soon otherwise tons of team sports will be depleted of competitors and matches to showcase their sport on a global stage. 

[Epic Failure 364]

1 hour ago, SalamAkhi said:

H2H between  and  is actually 2-2 with one large victory for each and two disputed games going both ways.

 

 2 - 1 

Okay, I'll adjust the GBR expected win rate against Uruguay to 98 out of 100 then.

 

This is no intended disrespect to Uruguay or Japan. Both are improving nations, in both 7s and the 15 a side game. But more than anything, it shows how lax both GBR and RSA have been in 7s in the last couple of years.

 

But it's an undeniable fact that the path for Japan and Uruguay to qualify this time around was much easier than it is for GBR especially but even RSA. Kenya are basically the same level as Uruguay. RSA should have beaten them but it isn't a huge shock they didn't. Same with GBR and Ireland/Spain.

 

But nobody else in Asia or South America is close to that level right now. Even in 7s, which is a more even sport than the 15 a side game.

 

Basically, the path to the Olympics was made much easier for certain countries with the teams already qualified through the rankings. Hell, even Samoa got an easier ride this time around.

 

It is what it is. It happened to France in Tokyo and it will happen to one of GBR or RSA this time.

[Epic Failure 364]

10 minutes ago, Cinnamon Bun said:

In all honesty this is one of the best qualification system out of all of the sports. It mixes the best in the world with the best in each in continent. With sports like this you're always gonna get continents who are way behind the rest, so it's expected that we have some Challenger teams in there. 8 times out of 10 both GB and South Africa would be in, but like Josh said South Africa's own failures against Kenya has caused this situation. There probably should be 16 teams instead of 12, but the quota problem is universal across all sports and the IOC need to sort it out soon otherwise tons of team sports will be depleted of competitors and matches to showcase their sport on a global stage. 

It entirely depends on what your aim is in terms of qualifying.

 

If it is to ensure geographic spread - this is good. If it is to ensure the best teams - less so.

 

[Epic Failure 364]

Like, this is guesswork on my part but I'm willing to bet that when World Rugby was drawing up this system they didn't expect Argentina to be as strong as they have become in 7s.

 

I suspect they probably would have preferred them to be slightly weaker and to take the SA spot instead.

 

But I agree that 12 teams is too small. If you are going to have team sports like these at the Games and want them to grow, you need to stop penny pinching the number of qualifiers.

[Cinnamon Bun 911]

4 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

It entirely depends on what your aim is in terms of qualifying.

 

If it is to ensure geographic spread - this is good. If it is to ensure the best teams - less so.

 

Every team world championship has to have continental qualifiers to showcase and give countries from less successful continents a chance to shine and grow the sport in their respective continent. Continental qualifiers are fine and good for sports, as long as they don't forsake the quality of the event by there being too many of them or by them replacing places given to the world rankings. In this case the problem isn't the continental qualifiers, it's the amount of places that are on offer for the entire event. 

[Cinnamon Bun 911]

This all wouldn't be happening if South Africa didn't bottle it against Kenya. So because of that they deserve to miss out and GB deserve to win and go through to the Olympics.