ExpandObjectively, we should be in 8th place, if not for Korea's sensational efficiency in gold medals, but that's nothing. If at least 1/4 of these 4th places were converted into medals, it would be our absolute record + add injuries, illnesses, bad luck, etc.
Some of the Italian medals will have beenwon through injuries, illnesses and bad luck of other nations.
Edited by Noorderling29Grenada won medal in declathon
Predicting two medals for Sifan Hassan, when she hasn’t doing anything very notable this season on the track, seems a bit optimistic. Of course you never know with her.
If that were to happen, Steenbergen is practically assured the gold medal in the individual event by a mile, given the limited qualities of our other freestyle sprinters.
FWIW, Gracenote predicts 18 gold, 36 medals for the Dutch team.
‘It’s not impossible”
ExpandLooking at the program, the only Dutch medal chance seems to be the women’s time trial, with Vollering and Van Dijk.
I meant, on the first day, but posted it in the wrong thread. In total it’s not impossible we will beat both the medal record (36) as the gold record (12).
Looking at the program, the only Dutch medal chance seems to be the women’s time trial, with Vollering and Van Dijk.
Twice this year, in Glasgow and Rome, Bol was handed the baton in first place and she did just enough to win.In Rome she ran a for her slow time in the women’s 4 x 4, a second slower than she ran in mixed relay and she ran to win the indoor 400 metres title. She wasn’t even the fastest Dutch runner, as Lisanne De Witte was a little bit faster.
ExpandThe issue with this strategy IRL have is Rhasidat will not be getting the baton in the lead in Paris if they put her on anchor (would be my strong gut feeling), unlike Bol in Budapest at the European level who could moderate things easily from the front. The Olympics will be a step up and IRL position near the front depends on her running the second leg.
Bol started in the lead in the final, in the heats she was never in the lead and finished third, after battling Kaczmarek
Edited by Noorderling29
ExpandThe big issue with the mixed relay is twofold:
(i) it is held at the start of the programme before the individuals, and the final is the day after the heat.
(ii) you can only make 1 substitution for the final.
its almost impossible to predict what teams can make the final with resting at least 1 of their best 4, too much uncertainty over the lineups of the other nations. Medals are up for grabs for those that want to claim them at the expense of having a fully rested headliners in the individual side (particularly hurtful on the men’s side which starts a day after the mixed final, the women have 1 more day of rest).
All competing nations I expect to rest their number 1 given the schedule in the heat (especially if that’s on the male side) but beyond that it gets really confusing. It wouldn’t surprise me if the GB team looks something like: Carvell Yeargin, La. Nielsen and Harries with Dobson possibly brought into the final if they genuinely think the team can get into the medal mix. Leaving Matt and Amber off the relay completely.
In Budapest the Dutch team ran Bol in the mixed relay heats, but with her doing just enough to qualify for the finals. Klaver did run at full capacity. We rested our old warrior Liemarvin Bonevacia. Ireland could run Rhasidat in the anker leg, following the Bol strategy.
Edited by Noorderling29
No mention of this news yet on any of the X accounts that follow Dutch athletics or on teletekst for that matter.
The,oppos
ExpandIt's always interesting to watch a nation become 'a force' in a sport, seemingly churning out talent where there was little before. The post-communist archetype was the early years of British cycling. Like Dutch athletics, GB cycling always had a Porter, a Boardman, an Obree or a McGregor, partly because of a long legacy of GB TT racing, but never a system that 'churned'. Likewise Irish lightweight rowing.
The opposite is also true. I’m old enough to remember the Dutch women’s table tennis team making the semifinals of the World championships twice (IIRC) in the 1980s. And three different players becoming individual European champions in a short period of time. Both totally unthinkable now.
Given that TeamNL won a total of 6 medals in athletics in the 17 games from 1952 to 2016, nobody would have predicted 4 medals at the start of 2020.
Bol’s rise started that year (but more clearly in 2021) and Vetter dropped out of the 2019 World Champs with psychological complaints and was far from certain to compete again, let alone at top level. Even in 2021, my guestemation was 4 medals at the very best, with the kamikaze schedule that Hassan chose meaning I had serious doubts about her achieving multiple medals. At least 3 medals (Oosterwegel’s bronze in the hepathlon, and the silvers in the men’s marathon and 4 x 400 meter relays) were totally unexpected.
Multiple medal chances for instance in sailing.
But my point is really how surprising it is that a sport where we basically were dependent on a single talent once in a while, now delivers multiple athletes, likely to make finals and capable of vying for a medal, and a significant number of athletes below that (who on a good day are capable of making a final). In the past our teams consisted almost completely of athletes in the second category.
Edited by Noorderling29
Gracenote predicts 38 medals, with 16 golds, for TeamNL. Both would be a record (currently 36 and 12). I haven’t seen the details of their prediction yet, but 16 golds seems to be on the optimistic side. Predictably the main medal providers are rowing and cycling (both road and track). More surprising the third sport mentioned is athletics. Just 3 years ago you would have been laughed away for making a prediction like that about athletics.
Edited by Noorderling29ExpandDAY 11 - August, 6th
ATHLETICS - Women's Hammer Throw
1.
B. Andersen
2.
3.
H. Skydan
ATHLETICS - Men's Long Jumo
1.
M. Tentoglu
2.
W. Pinnock
3.
S. Ehammer
ATHLETICS - Men's 1500m
1.
J. Ingebrigtsen
2.
M. Katir
3.
A. Kipsang
ATHLETICS - Women's 3000m Steeplechase
1.
2.
S. Almayew
3.
ATHLETICS - Women's 200m
1.
2.
J. Alfred
3.
DIVING - Women's 10m Platform
1.
C. Yuxi
2.
3.
A. Oroczo
EQUESTRIAN
1.
H. von Eckermann
2.
3.
P. Weishaupt
SKATEBOARDING
1.
S. Brown
2.
K. Hiraki
3.
R. Ventura
SAILING - Women's Dinghy
1.
A.M. Rindom
2.
M. Érdi
3.
M. Jonker
SAILING - Men's Dinghy
1.
P. Kontides
2.
T. Štipanović
3.
WRESTLING - Men's Greco-Roman 60kg
1.
E. Nazaryan
2.
M.S. Mohsen Nejad
3.
Z. Sharsenbekov
A. Sultangaliy
WRESTLING - Men's Greco-Roman 130kg
1.
R. Kayaalp
2.
3.
I. Kajaia
A. Alexuc-Ciuciariu
WRESTLING - Women's Freestyle 68kg
1.
2.
3.
I. Rîngaci
BOXING - Women's 60kg
1.
2.
K.A. Harrington
3.
J. Lambora
Y.J. Oh
TRACK CYCLING - Men's Team Sprint
1.
2.
France
3.
Australia
Very little chance of Jonker being selected ahead of Bouwmeester in the Dinghy.
Well, Wijler finished 6th at the World Champs and 5th in the men’s team event in 2023 (9th in the mixed event). so not so bad. Schloesser was part of the women’s team that took a completely unexpected 4th place in the team event.
Edited by Noorderling29ExpandI don't know where you read that Belgium is going to win 10 gold medals (or Kopecky winning 3) in my post (which is clearly the base of your answer)
my ranking only lists real medal chances (not gold, just medals), possible but improbable chances and remote chances (which would be big surprises in case they come, as I wrote)
and for those guys/teams that this year missed out on the qualification, nothing stops them to get it next year, the same for those who didn't perform well in 2023...they could improve a lot as much as they could even fail to qualify (or get injured)
and we all know that in practice the conversion rate between chances and actual medals is between 1/3 and half (unless you're San Marino in Tokyo
)
it's just a "pour parler", hypothesis, sometimes hope...not science nor a serious prediction...so, you just can't consider only those who are truly expected to deliver in such kind of thread
See post by CCB, right after yours
Very possible.
Noor Vidts: if she could not win a medal in Budapest in a weak competion, she’s never going to do it at World level.
There’s a big question mark about Thiam’s return. But even then, Anna Hall must be the favorite for Gold.
The Rowing LWX2 did not make it to final of the World Champs, and failed to win a quotum.
The 4x400 relay Men narrowly failed to qualify for the final in Budapest: time really seems to be up for the incredible Borlee twins and Belgium has failed to find comparable replacements. The women finished 5th, and that was in a race without the Americans.
Of the five Judoka’s mentioned, only one won a medal at this years World Champs.
Kopecky winning 3 golds?: next year’s Road race is far less ideal for her than the one in Glasgow, she’s really not the favorite for the time trial, and her chances in the Madison are heavily influenced by if the doping suspension of her partner will stand or not.
Hockey: the women are just as capable as sucker punching the Dutch in the final as finishing 7th. Also, they haven’t always been lucky in qualifying. The men failed to win their last two tournaments, and are in a bit of transition, with some of their older players retiring or not being selected.
show jumping really is completely unpredictable. In Tokyo Belgium won bronze in the team event on the back of the refusal of one the French horses (IIRC).
Belgium certainly has a lot of opportunities, but I once read somewhere for most teams only 1/3 of those,come to fruition.
Belgian medal tally has been below 10 since 1924, but everything’s possible I suppose. Belgium certainly has been underperforming, but the inventory of Belgian medal chances seems a bit on the optimistic side.
End of September the World Championships Gymnastics will see further qualifications, both team and individual.
Also the OQT Volleybal. The women first (I believe this weekend) and then the men. A total of 12 teams will qualify (I.e. halve of participating teams)
According to AD newspaper, they indeed predict Van Vleuten winning two medals.apparently their policy is to only discard athletes that have actually quit, not those that have only announced they will do so.
41 medals is not impossible, but very very unlikely. Everything will have to go our way to achieve that goal.
Edited by Noorderling29
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Posted (edited)
TeamNL has 41 fewer top 8 places than Germany, but wins one medal more.
Edited by Noorderling29Link to post
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