LowerSaxony

True, but in 2020 already. Still says a lot about the importance of good coaches and about German sports: In relation to other big countries, Germany is not able to hire or keep the best coaches and this is only a matter of payment, resp. willingness for offer good payments. The result of this can be seen in the recent decline across (summer and winter) sports and, unfortunately, will continue.

Are there some secret sliding events that I'm not aware of? If not, I'm not sure where 29 German medals should come from? My predictions: Luge: Will be harder to medal than in previous Olympics. I hope for one medal in each event (Women's Singles maybe 2), so 4-5 medals Bobsleigh: Also one medal in each event, the 2-athlete-races may result in 2 German medals each. 4-6 medals Skeleton: After 3 years of dominance during the Olympic cycle, the women somehow lost their dominance. Hopefully, we'll see the first German skeleton medal for a man. 0-1 medal. Snowboard: Hopefully, one medal each in the PGS races and good chances in Men's SC. Hard to predict results here (except for Ledecka winning of course). We improved in the freestyle events over the last 4 years, but medals are unrealistic when the best North American athletes are present. 1-3 medals. Nordic combined: Has been a powerhouse over the last decade, but it will be hard to get Individual medals this time as Riiber and Lamparter seem to be save bets for a medal. A team medal should be relatively save (even Gold is not unrealistic). 1-2 medals. Ski jumping: Hard to predict without no foreign athlete ever made a jump in Beijing. Hopefully, Geiger and the Men's team are able to get a medal but that's far from being save. 1-3 medals. Honestly, these are all realistic medal chances in terms of probability. Of course, surprises are always possible (Dürr or the men's speed team in Alpine skiing, men's Ski cross team, Hennig in CC skiathlon/10km, Men's hockey team, Biathlon men's relay) but they all are no favorites for winning a medal. Counting the optimistic scenario's medals from above, Germany would end up with 20 medals. However, there is a high possibility that Germany will fail to reach the threshold of 19 medals from 2014 which marks the historic low since reunification.

Yeah I don't get this either.. no information in German media about this. With regard to the team event it would be understandable to have more than 2 slalom athletes. However, there are no Alpine SL or GS events - and also no Snowboard HP events - this weekend (not even on EC level), so the only reason I can think of is that they do some internal qualification races for the last spots... we'll see on Monday. Keeping the places without actually sending athletes would indeed be a total asshole move.

Germany most likely declined the second spot over 1500metres. Only Anna Seidel was nominated today.

Well, Croatia really wanted their reallocation slots - they are the first to confirm their reallocation slots for both Alpine and Snowboard

The middle tier nations, such as those qualified for team event etc., do not have too many quota places, in my opinion. Those nations suffer from this qualification system, too, as nations like Croatia, Russia, New Zealand etc. do not have that many athletes in the TOP 30 lists and, thus, do not have that many quotas. The current qualification system means: Anytime a nation manages to get an athlete below the required FIS points criteria, the available places which are allocated via the Olympic Quota Allocation List (D.3) are reduced by one. I like the idea of a broad representation of small nations, but I don't think it's good when Austria has to hope that Israel or Kenya declines a quota place in order to get their world class athlete to the Olympics. With the given number of quota places the share of "low class" athletes is simply too high, at least for Alpine Skiing. For this reason, the qualification system should state that the maximum number of athletes to qualify via "basic quota" is X and the maximum number of athletes to qualify via World Cup is Y. Ofc, the entire problem would be solved if they just raise the overall number of athletes but that likely won't happen ;-)

Disagree here. First, it's not all about medals. Even the 10th and 11th skiier from Austria could easily compete for TOP 10 results. Moreover, the qualification system would have allowed Germany to send 7 women + 3 via reallocation which is more than entire number of female German skiiers that competed in this year's WC races THAT says a lot about the qualification system. Whatever. Any future qualification system has to secure that athletes from "exotic" nations and WC level athletes do not compete for the same quota places. The qualification system for WC level athletes and those athletes who just represent their country needs to be separated, badly.

Or maybe Norway if they do not accept the reallocation?

Neise fulfilled the internal standards. The German skeleton federation will also propose Loelling for selection.

Found at the IBU points list: Is that actually a French name?!

Thank you! However, I am not reading out of this article that they will definitely and come what may send six men if Germany get six places ;-)

Okay, that's news to me. Interesting. Thx.

...and that's highly unlikely given the recent performance of the Japanese men. So I think SVK can start to prepare their relay team for Beijing. ;-)

I am not sure about that. Why the internal qualification standards then (1x TOP 8 or 2x TOP 15)? For securing the relay you can justify athlete no. 5 - but six? I don't know. But we'll see. ;-)

I think another reallocation place will be available if Germany stays in 3rd position. I doubt that Germany will nominate more than 5 men (unless Zobel having a fantastic pursuit race on Sunday). Sweden will overtake Germany for 3rd place if and only if they win the relay on Saturday (which is totally possible, esp. without Norwegian A team) and Germany finishing 3rd or worse.

Yeah, these six names seem to be a sure call. Beside that, Strolz should also be safe after today's race. Thinking of the Combined event, also Schwarz should get a place. However, AUT should get at least one additional place after reallocation. One or two (from German perspective, hopefully three at least :D) places will surely be reallocated.

Yes, the qualification criteria clearly state that the quota places are allocated to the NOC, not an athlete (https://www.fil-luge.org/cdn/uploads/beijing-2022-qualification-system-luge-v3-0-1.pdf)

Correct. Germany already selected its squad: Men's: Ludwig, Loch, Langenhan Women's: Taubitz, Geisenberger, Berreiter Doubles: Eggert/Benecken, Wendl/Arlt

ITA with three doubles among the TOP 13, but only allowed to send only 1 double. That qualification system is a shame.

At the moment, Austria only has 9 quota places for men's Alpine skiing (11 being the maximum). Pretty hard qualification system when a nation like AUT is not able to gain the full possible quota here. Even Germany has 6 places (men), but 7 athletes that meet the internal qualification criteria. I also doubt that there will be much reallocation places this year. Other than for prior Games most nations should have more athletes than quota places. However, in Women's Alpine Germany will most likely decline three of its current seven(!) places if nothing sensational happens in the last races. First reallocation places for Men's Alpine at the moment: AUT, NOR, GER, AUT, GER, USA, ITA, FRA. First reallocation places for Women's Alpine at the moment: FRA, FRA, NOR, ITA, CRO, ITA, JPN, FRA.

With the exception of sliding sports and maybe Karl Geiger and the Nordic Combined relay, there a no clear Gold medal chances for Germany.

Well, apparently Germany fell for Adolf (again) (Sorry I could not deny myself )

Unfortunately, the entire German team seems to have had no good Olympic preparation. They were dominating the last World Cups (okay, CHN was not there) but they did not manage to bring this to the Olympics. I fear, it will be an Olympics without a German sprint canoeing gold.

Oh man... 5 years of training down the drain

Looks promising so far: