Mhm, you surely did the calculations for yourself, but:
144 quota places for Women available (w/o host country)
- x quota places allocated via D.1 (max 1 per NOC)
- 65 quota places allocated via D.2 (max 4 per NOC)
- 35 quota places allocated via D.3, rounds 1-3 (max 3 per NOC)
---
= leaving 44-x quota places to be allocated via round 4 of D.3
A rough count of the results of the WCh races so far show 31 nations qualified via D.1 + 2additional nations (TUR, LIE) qualified from Under 23-WCh (all with one athlete with less than 300 FIS points). Thus, x=33 (at least around 33, I maybe made a counting mistake)
--> 11 quota places to be allocated via D.3/round 4 (max 1 per NOC, starting with 6th place of Nation's Ranking as TOP 5 nations already reached the maximum of 8 places).
--> Thus, if all nations confirm their places, the NOC ranked 16th in the Nations ranking will earn the last available spot (ignoring the host country places so far)
--> The nation ranked 31th would be on 15th position of the reallocation list as the IOC document reads "If an allocated quota place is not confirmed by theNOC by the confirmation of quota place deadline, or is declined by the NOC, the quota place will be reallocated according to Round 4 in D.3 to the next eligible NOC."
--> In 2018, the nation ranked 28th on the reallocation list still earned a spot via reallocation. However, we cannot compare this process to 2022 as there was a combined reallocation list for men and women.
But still: Given BRA is ranked 31th on the final reallocation list, there is still a realistic chance for getting a second spot for the Olympics (One is safe for BRA from D.1) as there will surely be some middle to smaller nations who will not confirm their 3rd or 4th spot (f.e. Thailand). If they somehow manage to get on 30th place, there is even a chance for 3 quota places for BRA.
Additionally, the host country will surely have 1 or 2 places from the "normal" allocation process, meaning it's more realistic that the nation ranked 31th will be on 13th or 14th position of the reallocation list.
I hope I did not forget sth... that's ofc just a rough calculation