Made an account just to share my thoughts for medal chances of 20% or higher for The Netherlands in all events
All in all, I'd say based on the following percentages I'd come to around 30 medals, and factoring in Sifan Hassan and some unexpected medals (especially in Athletics, Tennis, Swimming and Judo), my fair estimate would be around 31-37 medals. 10+ gold should be realistic.
3X3 Basketball Men's team - 50% chance
Athletics 4x400M (W) - 80% chance
4x400M (Mixed) - 60% chance
Shot Put (W) - 30% chance
400M Hurdles (W) - 99% chance
Heptathlon (W) - 70% chance
1.500M (M) - 20% chance
Marathon (M) - 20% chance
Additionally, Sifan Hassan is a big X-factor. She hasn't yet announced what events she will perform in (1.500M, 5.000M, 10.000M, and/or marathon), but I expect at least 1 medal from her
Track Cycling
Team Sprint (M) - 99% chance
Keirin (M) - 80% chance
Individual Sprint (M) - 99% chance
Madison (M) - 20% chance
Keirin (W) - 20% chance
Madison (W) - 20% chance
Beach volleyball
Men - 30% chance
Women - 20% chance
BMX
Racing (W) - 30% chance
Breakdancing
Men - 30% chance
Women - 50% chance
Handball
Women - 40% chance
Field Hockey
Men - 70% chance
Women - 99% chance
Judo
-81kg (M) - 20% chance
-63kg (W) - 50% chance
-70kg (W) - 20% chance
Mixed event - 20% chance
Mountainbike
Women - 90% chance
Equestrian
Jumping (Individual) - 30% chance
Jumping (Team) - 30% chance
Dressage (Individual) - 20% chance
Dressage (Team) - 20% chance
Rowing
M1x - 80% chance
M2x - 80% chance
M4x - 90% chance
M4- - 20% chance
M8+ - 40% chance
W1x - 95% chance
W2x - 20% chance
W2- - 90% chance
W4x - 50% chance
W4- - 50% chance
Synchronised Swimming
Duet (W) - 60% chance
Water Polo
Women - 70% chance
Road cycling
Men's race - 40% chance
Women's race - 70% chance
Women's time trial - 50% chance
Sailing
49er (M) - 70% chance
ILCA 7 (M) - 20% chance
IQFoil (M) - 80% chance
49er FX (W) - 80% chance
ILCA 6 (W) - 40% chance
IQFoil (W) - 20% chance
Nacra17 (Mixed) - 50% chance
Swimming
100m breaststroke (M) - 30% chance
200m breaststroke (M) - 30% chance
100m freestyle (W) - 20% chance
100m breaststroke (W) - 30% chance
200m breaststroke (W) - 40% chance
200m medley (W) - 20% chance
10km Open Water (W) - 60% chance