JockCartier

It's an interesting question, Norway is certainly expanding their efforts into a number of new sports. So, that cannot help but to peal off a few more natural athletes. I know their training methods are kinda rocking the world in a number of summer endurance sports. I can't really speak to they dynamics of their development program. Their men's nordic programs largely always seem to be ridiculously deep, overwhelmingly so the last decade or so.

In the 60's I think it was USSR, Norway, Finland, Sweden... DDR came to prominence in the 70's into the 80's, when they were running on the premium gas

Is it better, worse, or about the same as Make or Break?

I don't medal pick, per se... I assign probabilities/expected-values and total them up. So I don't have a gold medal estimate... but if you want one, divide those numbers by three and you'll be pretty close! I imagine Norway, Italy and Netherlands and maybe Canada will probably skew a bit higher on golds, and US, Germany, and Sweden will skew a little lower... so maybe: Norway - 14 US - 11 Germany - 11 Italy - 11 Canada - 10 Austria - 8 Netherlands - 8 Japan - 7 Sweden - 6 France.- 6 I was surprised seeing Italy come in that high, I was figuring 22-23, but I guess they've been do well on the World Cups.

Apparently the skeleton program is resorting to subterfuge https://www.skysports.com/olympics/news/12040/13493523/skeleton-canada-facing-investigation-amid-claims-2026-winter-olympics-skeleton-qualifier-was-sabotaged

My medal count predictions a month out. - 35 - 34 - 31 - 28 - 26 - 22 - 21 - 20 - 19 - 18 Italy is setting up to have a helluva boost from the home Olympics *Again, these projections are highly unscientific and and nothing more than an exercise in my willingness to be wrong in public

Updated my medal projections from last March. Have Canada winning 26, up from 23 (mostly thanks to an improvement in our distance speed skating prospects, thank you Ms. Weidemann). Overall that would leave us 5th for total medals USA - 35 GER - 34 NOR - 31 ITA - 28 CAN - 26 Again, these projections are highly unscientific and and nothing more than an exercise in my willingness to be wrong in public

Yet people got their undies in a wad none the less at the time... and the effect on the end result will be exactly the same as this time, nil

Before 2014 Canada dropped the last four straight... in 2018 the US lost the last five straight... both went on to gold

Getting thumped in the rivalry series is usually a precursor for gold for both teams 🤷‍♂️😆

Stellato and Deschamps have an absolute trainwreck and drop to second. Pererria and Michaul take the title! Unfortunate way to end it, saw several other very strong skates. The future looks bright in pairs

Really going out on a limb predicting those two in the final 🤣

Yeah, they want to send a message to the international judges... at least that's how they spin it So yeah, there is good reason they don't count towards world records

The proof will be in the pudding... but I think there is a lot more of a hangover from Trials than most people appreciate. It's hard to peak for a gauntlet like that, especially when you've been focused on it for years, then recover, regroup and refocus. I think this accounts for a lot of our spotty record historically at the Olympics in curling. It's not quite like tapering for athletics or swimming, that's more of a physical thing. Though there are similar elements, and you cannot peak twice in short order. It often takes months to properly peak again. I wish we'd hold trials the season before like the mixed doubles do now, and several other top countries do. Let the teams plan their seasons around the Olympics, focus on that and properly prepare.

Because ice dance is not a just world, never has been Figure Skating in general is bad, but ice dance is nothing but a vipers nest of politics

Assuming clean programs: Gold - Fournier-Beaudry and Cizeron Silver - Lajoie and Lagha Bronze - Guinard and Fabbri if I had to pick a name... but between 3-6 there are a lot of close teams between G/F, G/P, C/B, Z/K, good but flawed teams, actually maybe I'd give the nod to Zingas/Kolesnik as they aren't no much flawed as young

To be honest, skating wise, LFB and Cizeron are BY FAR the best team out there. It’s not even close. Great speed, great ice coverage, and just amazing edges. She was skating circles around her old partner for years, now teamed up with someone like Cizeron 🤩 Not that ice dance typically rewards the best team… but by actual ability they’re miles better than everyone else. Chock and Bates have been propped up for years and just keep getting slower and have terrible ice coverage… and his back is so bad he can’t even bend over anymore. Gilles and Poirier, are, well Gilles and Poirier. Good all around, but lack the finish to be great. Honestly, in a just world I think L&L would probably be a favourite for a medal, IMO they’re our strongest team, but have been pushed down to try to keep G&P up At least that’s my opinion.

Also had 4 ski jumpers in 2022, not three. Forgetting the great Olympic mixed team medalist Matthew Soukop, tsk tsk

I thought we gave up on that theory back in November...

Can definitely see that. Typically have big lively crowds and a ton of urgency for those respective trials... and Olympic curling doesn't have much urgency until the playoffs, and the crowds tend to be smaller and disengaged. Hopefully being back in Europe at least the speed skating crowds should be a bit more lively and get more travelling fans, it's been awhile since we've had that.

Yeah, the Dutch trials are must see viewing with huge crowds and top notch production values... and ours is on a stream with 26 people watching and appears to be shot on oversaturated security cameras!

I imagine whomever is typically the alternate for the women’s team pursuit is probably a shoo in, just incase Those 1,000’s and 1,500’s are gonna be high stakes. Too bad about Howe

I think it depends on the sport. On one hand, I admire the meritocracy of trials for Dutch speed skating or US athletics... but I don't think it's necessarily a recipe for optimal results forcing athletes to run the gauntlet at incredibly competitive trials, then turn around and try to peak again in short order at the Olympics. It's something Canada does for our curling teams, and I think it's been a big part of the reason we've underperformed internationally more than one would expect. The successes we've had I feel are largely in spite of the qualification system, not because of it. Granted curling is a much different sport, but in it's case and it were up to me, I'd do like Sweden or GB, select the team the prior season then let them properly plan their seasons around the Olympics and preparing properly... rather than needing to peak for trials, and pouring whomever survives onto a plane for the Olympics a few weeks later For speedskating, I like the Canadian system. It's a mix of international results and trials. The medal contenders largely have their spots sewn up, so trials are a none-issue... and the rest are mostly just making up the numbers, so a heavier weighting on trials results is fair enough as no one else in that situation has done enough to solidify their position prior, so might as well play the hot hand. The Dutch having such incredible depth would obviously need to set the pre-qualification bar higher, but I don't think it would hurt them. But then again, their entire system is build around performance on demand... and that's produced great results, even if a few Ted-Jan Bloeman's wash out along the way

Wow... kinda limiting your hosting options when you'll only go somewhere with a long-track oval With figure skating often being a cash cow, you'd think you'd want a lot more flexibility in moving it around

The damn Swiss! To borrow from Cool Runnings