JockCartier

Is it better, worse, or about the same as Make or Break?

I don't medal pick, per se... I assign probabilities/expected-values and total them up. So I don't have a gold medal estimate... but if you want one, divide those numbers by three and you'll be pretty close! I imagine Norway, Italy and Netherlands and maybe Canada will probably skew a bit higher on golds, and US, Germany, and Sweden will skew a little lower... so maybe: Norway - 14 US - 11 Germany - 11 Italy - 11 Canada - 10 Austria - 8 Netherlands - 8 Japan - 7 Sweden - 6 France.- 6 I was surprised seeing Italy come in that high, I was figuring 22-23, but I guess they've been do well on the World Cups.

Apparently the skeleton program is resorting to subterfuge https://www.skysports.com/olympics/news/12040/13493523/skeleton-canada-facing-investigation-amid-claims-2026-winter-olympics-skeleton-qualifier-was-sabotaged

My medal count predictions a month out. - 35 - 34 - 31 - 28 - 26 - 22 - 21 - 20 - 19 - 18 Italy is setting up to have a helluva boost from the home Olympics *Again, these projections are highly unscientific and and nothing more than an exercise in my willingness to be wrong in public

Updated my medal projections from last March. Have Canada winning 26, up from 23 (mostly thanks to an improvement in our distance speed skating prospects, thank you Ms. Weidemann). Overall that would leave us 5th for total medals USA - 35 GER - 34 NOR - 31 ITA - 28 CAN - 26 Again, these projections are highly unscientific and and nothing more than an exercise in my willingness to be wrong in public

Yet people got their undies in a wad none the less at the time... and the effect on the end result will be exactly the same as this time, nil

Before 2014 Canada dropped the last four straight... in 2018 the US lost the last five straight... both went on to gold

Getting thumped in the rivalry series is usually a precursor for gold for both teams 🤷‍♂️😆

Stellato and Deschamps have an absolute trainwreck and drop to second. Pererria and Michaul take the title! Unfortunate way to end it, saw several other very strong skates. The future looks bright in pairs

Really going out on a limb predicting those two in the final 🤣

Yeah, they want to send a message to the international judges... at least that's how they spin it So yeah, there is good reason they don't count towards world records

The proof will be in the pudding... but I think there is a lot more of a hangover from Trials than most people appreciate. It's hard to peak for a gauntlet like that, especially when you've been focused on it for years, then recover, regroup and refocus. I think this accounts for a lot of our spotty record historically at the Olympics in curling. It's not quite like tapering for athletics or swimming, that's more of a physical thing. Though there are similar elements, and you cannot peak twice in short order. It often takes months to properly peak again. I wish we'd hold trials the season before like the mixed doubles do now, and several other top countries do. Let the teams plan their seasons around the Olympics, focus on that and properly prepare.

Because ice dance is not a just world, never has been Figure Skating in general is bad, but ice dance is nothing but a vipers nest of politics

Assuming clean programs: Gold - Fournier-Beaudry and Cizeron Silver - Lajoie and Lagha Bronze - Guinard and Fabbri if I had to pick a name... but between 3-6 there are a lot of close teams between G/F, G/P, C/B, Z/K, good but flawed teams, actually maybe I'd give the nod to Zingas/Kolesnik as they aren't no much flawed as young

To be honest, skating wise, LFB and Cizeron are BY FAR the best team out there. It’s not even close. Great speed, great ice coverage, and just amazing edges. She was skating circles around her old partner for years, now teamed up with someone like Cizeron 🤩 Not that ice dance typically rewards the best team… but by actual ability they’re miles better than everyone else. Chock and Bates have been propped up for years and just keep getting slower and have terrible ice coverage… and his back is so bad he can’t even bend over anymore. Gilles and Poirier, are, well Gilles and Poirier. Good all around, but lack the finish to be great. Honestly, in a just world I think L&L would probably be a favourite for a medal, IMO they’re our strongest team, but have been pushed down to try to keep G&P up At least that’s my opinion.