TeamGB

Milano-Cortina 2026 Quota Simulation: 2024-25 Data Edition
 
Hello fellow Totallympians and welcome to another quota simulation. This time, the focus has shifted over to the winter Olympics. There's still a ski mountaineering world cup and some a few world championships to go but I thought I would post this while everyone is still in winter sports mode. I'll post minor updates if any data changes over the next month but I don't there'll be many changes. There's a few things to note before we begin.
 
Total # of NOC's
Overall, we have a total of 88 NOC's that are qualified/projected to qualify for the Olympics. This would represent a decrease of 4 NOC's from the 91 nations in Beijing although Russia and Belarus were competing separately then. On the other hand, with Russia/Belarus being limited to how many sports and how many athletes they can qualify, many of the major winter sports nations are projected to have their largest team ever.
 
Russian/Belarusian athletes
Speaking of Russia and Belarus, they are included in this simulation and just like in 2024, it was very annoying to factor them in considering they didn't compete in competitions in the last year at all (besides ski mountaineering). I've only included these athletes in the skating sports and ski mountaineering. The ISU has already announced a pathway for Russian/Belarusian athletes to qualify and neutral athletes are already competing in the ski mountaineering competitions. Russia was easy to simulate since it was safe to assume that one athlete would qualify in each event. Belarus was a bit harder and involved me looking at individual times/scores for their athletes this year. At the end of the day, I decided to include Belarusians in women's singles and pairs for figure skating and the men's 500m & 1000m along with all of the women's events in speed skating. All of the women's speed skating events may be a bit too generous but that was how it was in 2022.
 
Total # of athletes
In total, 2874 athletes are projected to qualify from this simulation. This is despite the athlete cap being at 2900. There are a few reasons for this discrepancy.
Bobsleigh: Only 162 of the maximum 170 quotas were used. Curling: Only 109 of the maximum 120 quotas were used. This is due to certain players being simulated to play in both the mixed doubles and 4 person events resulting in them taking up two quotas. Figure Skating: The additional 5 quotas allowed for the team event were used here. After simulating the final qualifying event, only Canada, France, Georgia, Italy and the USA had full teams so I gave an additional quotas to Great Britain in men's singles, Japan in ice dance, and South Korea in Pairs. Freestyle Skiing: Only 277 quotas were used here compared to the maximum 284 quotas. The women's halfpipe looks like it will have trouble filling up their 25 quotas as only 23 quotas were used and I believe 5 athletes simulated currently do not have the required amount of FIS points to be eligible. Men's aerials and women's ski cross originally had enough athletes to fill up the allotted quota. However, Canada and the USA were over the maximum limit so after simulating rejected quotas, those events didn't have enough athletes to fill the allotted quotas and women's aerials just made it. Henry Sildaru (EST) is also projected to qualify in both men's halfpipe and slopestyle/big air. Luge: Only 105 of the maximum 106 quotas were used here because Wolfgang Kindl (AUT) is projected to qualify in both men's singles and men's doubles Snowboarding: Only 237 of the maximum 238 quotas were used here. Cody Winters (USA) is projected to qualify in both PGS and snowboard cross.  
In addition, there are also 3 athletes expected to compete in multiple sports: Phillip Bellingham (AUS) in cross-country skiing and ski mountaineering, Ester Ledecka (CZE) in alpine skiing, and snowboarding, and Arianna Fontana (ITA) in short track and speed skating. Please let me know if there's any other possible athletes that could also be in this list.
 
Internal qualification procedures
Internal qualification procedures for countries like the Netherlands and New Zealand WERE NOT taken into account this time for the sole reason because it's fun seeing the Netherlands have an athlete in Nordic Combined 
 
Differences from the FIS quota simulations
If you have a look at the FIS quota simulations on their webpages for alpine skiing, cross-country skiing, freestyle skiing, and snowboarding, you'll notice there are some differences.
Alpine Skiing: NOC's with a man or woman that hasn't qualified yet were taken into account. If the athlete hasn't had the required amount of races to qualify but is averaging the necessary amount of points to qualify, I simulated them as qualified (e.g. Morocco). Cross-Country Skiing: FIS only simulated 138 quotas in each gender. I reallocated the remaining 10 quotas per gender based on the Olympic nations' ranking. There is a clause that if an unqualified NOC scores 300 points or less in a world cup race next season, they can qualify. However, that is very unlikely to happen (unless Russia and Belarus are invited back) since there are already athletes from qualified NOC's competing in World Cup races that get lapped. Freestyle Skiing: I took into account Canada and the USA rejecting quotas since they were both initially over the 32 athlete quota limit. I had Canada rejecting 2 quotas in women's aerials, 1 each per gender in moguls, 1 in men's halfpipe, and 2 in men's slopestyle/big air. I had the USA rejecting 1 quota in men's aerials, 1 in men's ski cross, and 2 in women's ski cross.  Snowboard: Two athletes in women's snowboard cross were not eligible to qualify and were replaced with athletes on the reserve list that were eligible.  
Speaking of athlete eligibility, there were some athletes that were simulated by FIS that didn't meet eligiblity requirements. I decided that if there was an eligible athlete on the reserve list, then the ineligible athlete would be replaced but if there wasn't an eligible athlete on the reserve list, I would keep the ineligible athlete in the quota list (e.g. Vanuatu in freeski halfpipe).
 
 
Anyways, that's enough talking. Let's begin! The numbers in brackets represent the change from the NOC's athlete total at Beijing 2022.
 
Please comment if you have any questions, thoughts or observations.
 
Africa (7 nations)
 
 Eritrea: 1 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 1)
 Kenya: 2 (+2)
(Alpine Skiing - 2)
 Madagascar: 2 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 2)
 Morocco: 1 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 1)
 Nigeria: 1 (0)
(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 South Africa: 3 (+3)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 1)
 Togo: 1 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 1)
 
Americas (12 nations)
 
 Argentina: 8 (+2)
(Alpine Skiing - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 4, Luge - 1)
 Bolivia: 1 (-1)
(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 Brazil: 15 (+5)
(Alpine Skiing - 4, Biathlon - 1, Bobsleigh - 4, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Short Track - 1, Skeleton - 1, Snowboarding - 1)
 Canada: 205 (-10)
(Alpine Skiing - 11, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 14, Cross-Country Skiing - 13, Curling - 11, Figure Skating - 12, Freestyle Skiing - 32, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 6, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 2, Ski Jumping - 3, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 20, Speed Skating - 13)
 Chile: 4 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 1)
 Colombia: 2 (-1)
(Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Skeleton - 1)
 Haiti: 2 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 Jamaica: 2 (-5)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Bobsleigh - 1)
 Mexico: 3 (-1)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 Puerto Rico: 1 (-1)
(Skeleton - 1)
 Trinidad and Tobago: 2 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 2)
 United States: 223 (-1)
(Alpine Skiing - 19, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 14, Cross-Country Skiing - 16, Curling - 6, Figure Skating - 18, Freestyle Skiing - 32, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 11, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 4, Skeleton - 4, Ski Jumping - 7, Snowboarding - 23, Speed Skating - 11)
 
Asia (18 nations)
 
 China: 115 (-67)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 3, Bobsleigh - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 6, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 24, Luge - 6, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 5, Ski Jumping - 6, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 16, Speed Skating - 14)
 Hong Kong: 2 (-1)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Short Track - 1)
 India: 2 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 Iran: 3 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)
 Japan: 124 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Curling - 7, Figure Skating - 10, Freestyle Skiing - 20, Ice Hockey - 23, Luge - 1, Nordic Combined - 3, Short Track - 9, Ski Jumping - 7, Snowboarding - 20, Speed Skating - 13)
 Kazakhstan: 43 (+9)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 8, Figure Skating - 2, Freestyle Skiing - 12, Nordic Combined - 1, Short Track - 8, Ski Jumping - 3, Speed Skating - 4)
 Kyrgyzstan: 2 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 Lebanon: 1 (-2)
(Alpine Skiing - 1)
 Malaysia: 1 (-1)
(Alpine Skiing - 1)
 Mongolia: 2 (0)
(Cross-Country Skiing - 2)
 Philippines: 2 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 2)
 Saudi Arabia: 2 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 Singapore: 1 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 1)
 South Korea: 62 (-2)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 2, Bobsleigh - 4, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Curling - 5, Figure Skating - 8, Freestyle Skiing - 5, Luge - 1, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 1, Snowboarding - 11, Speed Skating - 10)
 Taiwan: 6 (+2)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Skeleton - 1, Speed Skating - 1)
 Thailand: 4 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 United Arab Emirates: 1 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 1)
 Uzbekistan: 3 (+2)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Figure Skating - 2)
 
Europe (47 nations)
 
 Albania: 3 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 3)
 Andorra: 6 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 4, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)
 Armenia: 3 (-3)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)
 Austria: 109 (+3)
(Alpine Skiing - 22, Biathlon - 9, Bobsleigh - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 8, Figure Skating - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 13, Luge - 11, Nordic Combined - 3, Short Track - 1, Skeleton - 4, Ski Jumping - 8, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 17, Speed Skating - 2)
 Azerbaijan: 1 (-1)
(Figure Skating - 1)
 Belgium: 32 (+13)
(Alpine Skiing - 4, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Figure Skating - 2, Short Track - 5, Skeleton - 1, Ski Mountaineering - 1, Snowboarding - 1, Speed Skating - 7)
 Bosnia and Herzegovina: 5 (-1)
(Alpine Skiing - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Luge - 1)
 Bulgaria: 19 (+3)
(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 1, Ski Jumping - 1, Snowboarding - 3)
 Croatia: 14 (+3)
(Alpine Skiing - 6, Biathlon - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Short Track - 2)
 Cyprus: 2 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 2)
 Czech Republic: 123 (+10)
(Alpine Skiing - 6, Biathlon - 10, Bobsleigh - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 13, Curling - 5, Figure Skating - 4, Freestyle Skiing - 5, Ice Hockey - 48, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 5, Snowboarding - 9, Speed Skating - 4)
 Denmark: 40 (-22)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 2, Bobsleigh - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Curling - 5, Ice Hockey - 25, Skeleton - 2, Speed Skating - 2)
 Estonia: 31 (+5)
(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 8, Curling - 2, Figure Skating - 2, Freestyle Skiing - 2, Nordic Combined - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 2, Speed Skating - 1)
 Finland: 102 (+7)
(Alpine Skiing - 5, Biathlon - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 16, Figure Skating - 5, Freestyle Skiing - 8, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 1, Nordic Combined - 2, Ski Jumping - 5, Snowboarding - 2)
 France: 152 (+66)
(Alpine Skiing - 17, Biathlon - 12, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 15, Figure Skating - 10, Freestyle Skiing - 18, Ice Hockey - 48, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 3, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 6, Ski Mountaineering - 4, Snowboarding - 10, Speed Skating - 4)
 Georgia: 8 (-1)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Figure Skating - 6)
 Germany: 188 (+39)
(Alpine Skiing - 11, Biathlon - 11, Bobsleigh - 18, Cross-Country Skiing - 14, Curling - 5, Figure Skating - 6, Freestyle Skiing - 11, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 12, Nordic Combined - 3, Short Track - 1, Skeleton - 6, Ski Jumping - 7, Ski Mountaineering - 3, Snowboarding - 19, Speed Skating - 13)
 Great Britain: 55 (+5)
(Alpine Skiing - 3, Bobsleigh - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 8, Freestyle Skiing - 7, Short Track - 3, Skeleton - 5, Snowboarding - 5)
 Greece: 5 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 3)
 Hungary: 16 (+2)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 4, Figure Skating - 2, Short Track - 5, Snowboarding - 2, Speed Skating - 1)
 Iceland: 4 (-1)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)
 Ireland: 6 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Luge - 1, Short Track - 1)
 Israel: 5 (-1)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Figure Skating - 2, Skeleton - 1)
 Italy: 193 (+75)
(Alpine Skiing - 21, Biathlon - 10, Bobsleigh - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 13, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 11, Freestyle Skiing - 10, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 10, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 3, Ski Jumping - 7, Ski Mountaineering - 3, Snowboarding - 16, Speed Skating - 10)
 Kosovo: 2 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 2)
 Latvia: 70 (+13)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 9, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Figure Skating - 3, Ice Hockey - 25, Luge - 11, Short Track - 2, Skeleton - 3)
 Liechtenstein: 4 (+2)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)
 Lithuania: 17 (+4)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 4, Figure Skating - 3)
 Luxembourg: 2 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 2)
 Malta: 1 (0)
(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 Moldova: 4 (-1)
(Biathlon - 4)
 Monaco: 5 (+2)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Bobsleigh - 4)
 Montenegro: 2 (-1)
(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 Netherlands: 43 (+2)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Bobsleigh - 4, Figure Skating - 2, Freestyle Skiing - 1, Nordic Combined - 1, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 1, Snowboarding - 4, Speed Skating - 18)
 North Macedonia*: 3 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 Norway: 91 (+7)
(Alpine Skiing - 18, Biathlon - 11, Cross-Country Skiing - 16, Curling - 11, Freestyle Skiing - 5, Nordic Combined - 3, Ski Jumping - 8, Ski Mountaineering - 3, Snowboarding - 4, Speed Skating - 12)
 Poland: 59 (+2)
(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Figure Skating - 4, Luge - 6, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 7, Ski Jumping - 5, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 4, Speed Skating - 9)
 Portugal: 3 (+7)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)
 Romania: 31 (+10)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 6, Bobsleigh - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 1, Luge - 8, Ski Jumping - 2, Snowboarding - 1)
 Serbia: 4 (+2)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)
 Slovakia: 50 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 6, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 1, Ice Hockey - 25, Luge - 6, Ski Jumping - 1, Ski Mountaineering - 3, Snowboarding - 1)
 Slovenia: 41 (-3)
(Alpine Skiing - 10, Biathlon - 9, Cross-Country Skiing - 8, Nordic Combined - 2, Ski Jumping - 7, Snowboarding - 5)
 Spain: 17 (+3)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Bobsleigh - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 3, Ski Mountaineering - 4, Snowboarding - 4)
 Sweden: 117 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 12, Biathlon - 12, Cross-Country Skiing - 16, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 15, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 2, Snowboarding - 1)
 Switzerland: 10 (+13)
(Alpine Skiing - 22, Biathlon - 10, Bobsleigh - 16, Cross-Country Skiing - 13, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 3, Freestyle Skiing - 22, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 1, Nordic Combined - 2, Skeleton - 3, Ski Jumping - 4, Ski Mountaineering - 4, Snowboarding - 19, Speed Skating - 3)
 Türkiye: 7 (0)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Short Track - 1, Ski Jumping - 2)
 Ukraine: 46 (+1)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 6, Figure Skating - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 8, Luge - 8, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 4, Snowboarding - 2)
 
Oceania (3 nations)
 
 Australia: 53 (+9)
(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 1, Bobsleigh - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 8, Curling - 2, Figure Skating - 2, Freestyle Skiing - 13, Luge - 1, Short Track - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 12)
 New Zealand: 21 (+6)
(Alpine Skiing - 4, Freestyle Skiing - 11, Snowboarding - 5, Speed Skating - 1)
 Vanuatu: 1 (+1)
(Freestyle Skiing - 1)
 
Other (1 nation)
 
 Individual Neutral Athletes: 23
(Figure Skating - 9, Short Track - 2, Ski Mountaineering - 1, Speed Skating - 11)

It’s on CBCSports, just set your VPN to Canada. 

Nothing like ‘saving’ the sport of athletics by putting it behind a paywall.

What’s the point. We all know it will overrun and delay the start of the second half, making the players more prone to injury. It takes away from the actual spectacle (the football), and overall just feels like a forced way to make the game for ‘Americanised’
 
If you have ever watch the champions league final, then they do a flashy performace before the start of the match, and they boos alone tell you what the fans think of it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cge1q41np7go
 
USA moment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cge1q41np7go
 
USA moment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cge1q41np7go
 
USA moment

I think he said he was competing through training in preparation for the worlds.
 
 

I think he said he was competing through training in preparation for the worlds.
 
 

Cross-Country Skiing NOC Quota Standings after Junior and U23 World Championships
 
Updated to include the results from the World Juniors and the U23 World Championships along with the overal tour de ski results that I missed last time. Please let me know if anything doesn't look right.
 
4 quotas
3 quotas
2 quotas
1 quota
 
Men
 
Rank NOC Points 1 Norway 15541 2 Sweden 10817 3 France 10371 4 Finland 9054 5 United States 8420 6 Italy 8252 7 Germany 7883 8 Switzerland 7270 9 (+1)  Canada 5170 10 (-1) Czechia 4843 11 Austria 4751 12 Great Britain 3828 13 (+1) Estonia 3488 14 (-1) Slovenia 3441 15 Australia 2344 16 Japan 2233 17 (+1) Poland 2020 18 (-1) Latvia 1717 19 Kazakhstan 1696 20 (+1) Spain 1336 20 (-1) Andorra 1265 22 Ireland 1237 23 (+1) Ukraine 993 23 (-1) Hungary 861 25 China 671 26 (+2) Romania 383 27 (+2) Slovakia 363 28 (-2) Thailand 336 29 (-2)  Armenia 276 30  Bulgaria 247 31 (+2) Argentina 184 32 (+3) Croatia 143 33 (-2) Mongolia 137 34 (-2) Serbia 131 35 (+1) Chile 130 36 (-2) Korea 115 37 (+2) Lithuania 96 38 (new)  Greece 87 39 (+2)  Liechtenstein 83 40 (-3) Colombia 76 41 (new)  Brazil 70 42 (-2) Belgium 59 43 (new)  Iceland 51 44 (-6) North Macedonia 50 45 (new)  Montenegro 11 46 (new)  Moldova 8 47 (new)  Türkiye 5 48 (new)  Chinese Taipei 2 49 (new)  Bolivia 1  
Women
 
Rank NOC Points 1 Norway 14645 2 Sweden 12294 3 Finland 11107 4 Germany 11023 5 United States 10031 6 Switzerland 7345 7 France 6439 8 Italy 6235 9 Canada 5905 10 Czechia 4951 11 Austria 4216 12 Estonia 2310 13 Slovenia 2096 14 Kazakhstan 2005 15 Ukraine 1531 16 Australia 1449 17 (+1)  Japan 998 18 (-1) Poland 969 19 Latvia 517 20 (+1)  Andorra 386 21 (new)  Great Britain 207 22 (-2) Chinese Taipei 194 23 (new)  Argentina 136 24 (-2) Armenia 131 25 (new)  Romania 123 26 (-3) Korea 122 27 (new)  Greece 115 28 (new) Lithuania 100 29 (new) Croatia 89 30 (new)  Brazil 60 31 (new)  Chile 49 32 (new)  Hungary 37 33 (new) Slovakia 28 34 (new)  Türkiye 18 35 (new)  Moldova 9 36 (new)  Kenya 3 37 (new)  Bulgaria 2 38 (new)  Bosnia and Herzegovina 1

From my calculations, GB is on 13 'proper' world cup win's this year (Figure skating and Curling don't count due to limited fields), which would be second behind the 15 in 2022-2023.
 
This doesn't include the world championships which would give another 4 to 2023
 
 
 

Yeah no...
 
You wonder why you were (as you put it) "forced out", by people daring to disagree with you and then you come back and post why this event will be cancelled, or this team isn't competing.
 
Maybe when one of your predictions actually comes true then we'll start believing.
 
 

PART 2
 
 
Freestyle Skiing
 
Men's Aerials -  - Qi Guangpu
Men's Moguls -  - Mikael Kingsbury
Men's Dual Moguls -  - Mikael Kingsbury
Men's Ski Cross -  - Florian Wilmsmann
Men's Freeski Halfpipe -  - Alex Ferrera
Men's Freeski Slopestyle -  - Birk Ruud
Men's Freeski Big Air -  - Birk Ruud
Women's Aerials -  - Danielle Scott
Women's Moguls -  - Jakara Anthony
Women's Duel Moguls -  - Jakara Anthony
Women's Ski Cross -  - Sandra Naeslund
Women's Freeski Halfpipe -  - Eileen Gu
Women's Freeski Slopestyle -  - Tess Ledeux
Women's Freeski Big Air -  - Mathilde Gremaud
Mixed Team Aerials - 
 
Snowboard
 
Men's Parallel Giant Slalom -  - Daniele Bagozza
Men's Snowboard Cross -  - Jacob Dusek
Men's Snowboard Halfpipe -  - Yuto Totsuka
Men's Snowboard Slopestyle -  - Ryoma Kimata
Men's Snowboard Big Air -  - Kira Kimuga
Women's Parallel Giant Slalom -  - Esther Ledecká
Women's Snowboard Cross -  - Charlotte Bankes
Women's Snowboard Halfpipe -  - Cai Xuetong
Women's Snowboard Slopestyle -  - Mia Brookes
Women's Snowboard Big Air -  - Anna Gasser
Mixed Team Snowboard Cross - 
 
Cross Country Skiing
 
Men's Skiathlon -  - Johannes Hosflot Klaebo
Men's Sprint Classic -  - Johannes Hosflot Klaebo
Men's Team Sprint Free - 
Men's 4x10km Relay - 
Men's 15km Free -  - Simen Hegstad Kruger
Men's 50km Mass Start Classic -  - Johannes Hosflot Klaebo
Women's Skiathlon -  - Ebba Anderson
Women's Sprint Classic -  - Kristine Stavas Skistad
Women's Team Sprint Free - 
Women's 4x5km Relay - 
Women's 10km Free -  - Jonna Sundling
Women's 30km Mass Start Classic -  - Jessie Diggins
 
Nordic Combined
 
Men's Normal Hill -  - Jarl Magnus Riiber
Men's Large Hill -  - Jarl Magnus Riiber
Team - 
 
Ski Jumping 
 
Men's Normal Hill -  - Stefan Kraft
Men's Large Hill -  Timi Zajk
Men's Team - 
Women's Normal Hill -  - Katharina Schmid
Woman's Large Hill -  Nika Prevc
Mixed Team - 
 
Ski Mountaineering
 
Men's Sprint -  - Oriol Cardona Coll
Women's Sprint -  - Emily Harrop
Mixed Relay - 
 
 
 

Medal Table (Change from 2022)
 
 - 20 (+4)
 - 13 (+1)
 - 13 (+5)
 - 9 (+7)
 - 9 (=)
 - 7 (+2)
 - 7 (=)
 - 6 (-2)
 - 6 (-1)
 - 5 (+1)
 - 5 (+4)
 - 4 (+1)
 - 4 (-5)
 - 3 (+2)
 - 2 (=)
 - 1 (=)
 - 1 (+1)
 
 
 -5,  -2,  -2,  -2, , -1, , -1, , -1 fail to male the list
 
On 1st glance 1 feel I have underestimated Canada, Sweden and Finland, and overestimated GB (obviously) and Netherlands. 
 
If the Russians aren't competing then the Norwegians will have a field day in cross country skiing, but it is too early to tell.
 
World cups and championships aren't always the best measure for some sports but it's the best I can find. 
 
 
As an overall trend I feel this will be a strong games for the European nations (home advantage) but the Asian nations might struggle, not necessarily at the extent I predicted here but I don't think their results will be as good as Beijing. 
 
 
 

So full of christmas cheer that I will give some early predictions a go tonight, (whilst heavily fueled with pigs in blankets and beer), so stay tuned.

Medal Table (Change from 2022)
 
 - 20 (+4)
 - 13 (+1)
 - 13 (+5)
 - 9 (+7)
 - 9 (=)
 - 7 (+2)
 - 7 (=)
 - 6 (-2)
 - 6 (-1)
 - 5 (+1)
 - 5 (+4)
 - 4 (+1)
 - 4 (-5)
 - 3 (+2)
 - 2 (=)
 - 1 (=)
 - 1 (+1)
 
 
 -5,  -2,  -2,  -2, , -1, , -1, , -1 fail to male the list
 
On 1st glance 1 feel I have underestimated Canada, Sweden and Finland, and overestimated GB (obviously) and Netherlands. 
 
If the Russians aren't competing then the Norwegians will have a field day in cross country skiing, but it is too early to tell.
 
World cups and championships aren't always the best measure for some sports but it's the best I can find. 
 
 
As an overall trend I feel this will be a strong games for the European nations (home advantage) but the Asian nations might struggle, not necessarily at the extent I predicted here but I don't think their results will be as good as Beijing. 
 
 
 

Medal Table (Change from 2022)
 
 - 20 (+4)
 - 13 (+1)
 - 13 (+5)
 - 9 (+7)
 - 9 (=)
 - 7 (+2)
 - 7 (=)
 - 6 (-2)
 - 6 (-1)
 - 5 (+1)
 - 5 (+4)
 - 4 (+1)
 - 4 (-5)
 - 3 (+2)
 - 2 (=)
 - 1 (=)
 - 1 (+1)
 
 
 -5,  -2,  -2,  -2, , -1, , -1, , -1 fail to male the list
 
On 1st glance 1 feel I have underestimated Canada, Sweden and Finland, and overestimated GB (obviously) and Netherlands. 
 
If the Russians aren't competing then the Norwegians will have a field day in cross country skiing, but it is too early to tell.
 
World cups and championships aren't always the best measure for some sports but it's the best I can find. 
 
 
As an overall trend I feel this will be a strong games for the European nations (home advantage) but the Asian nations might struggle, not necessarily at the extent I predicted here but I don't think their results will be as good as Beijing. 
 
 
 

PART 2
 
 
Freestyle Skiing
 
Men's Aerials -  - Qi Guangpu
Men's Moguls -  - Mikael Kingsbury
Men's Dual Moguls -  - Mikael Kingsbury
Men's Ski Cross -  - Florian Wilmsmann
Men's Freeski Halfpipe -  - Alex Ferrera
Men's Freeski Slopestyle -  - Birk Ruud
Men's Freeski Big Air -  - Birk Ruud
Women's Aerials -  - Danielle Scott
Women's Moguls -  - Jakara Anthony
Women's Duel Moguls -  - Jakara Anthony
Women's Ski Cross -  - Sandra Naeslund
Women's Freeski Halfpipe -  - Eileen Gu
Women's Freeski Slopestyle -  - Tess Ledeux
Women's Freeski Big Air -  - Mathilde Gremaud
Mixed Team Aerials - 
 
Snowboard
 
Men's Parallel Giant Slalom -  - Daniele Bagozza
Men's Snowboard Cross -  - Jacob Dusek
Men's Snowboard Halfpipe -  - Yuto Totsuka
Men's Snowboard Slopestyle -  - Ryoma Kimata
Men's Snowboard Big Air -  - Kira Kimuga
Women's Parallel Giant Slalom -  - Esther Ledecká
Women's Snowboard Cross -  - Charlotte Bankes
Women's Snowboard Halfpipe -  - Cai Xuetong
Women's Snowboard Slopestyle -  - Mia Brookes
Women's Snowboard Big Air -  - Anna Gasser
Mixed Team Snowboard Cross - 
 
Cross Country Skiing
 
Men's Skiathlon -  - Johannes Hosflot Klaebo
Men's Sprint Classic -  - Johannes Hosflot Klaebo
Men's Team Sprint Free - 
Men's 4x10km Relay - 
Men's 15km Free -  - Simen Hegstad Kruger
Men's 50km Mass Start Classic -  - Johannes Hosflot Klaebo
Women's Skiathlon -  - Ebba Anderson
Women's Sprint Classic -  - Kristine Stavas Skistad
Women's Team Sprint Free - 
Women's 4x5km Relay - 
Women's 10km Free -  - Jonna Sundling
Women's 30km Mass Start Classic -  - Jessie Diggins
 
Nordic Combined
 
Men's Normal Hill -  - Jarl Magnus Riiber
Men's Large Hill -  - Jarl Magnus Riiber
Team - 
 
Ski Jumping 
 
Men's Normal Hill -  - Stefan Kraft
Men's Large Hill -  Timi Zajk
Men's Team - 
Women's Normal Hill -  - Katharina Schmid
Woman's Large Hill -  Nika Prevc
Mixed Team - 
 
Ski Mountaineering
 
Men's Sprint -  - Oriol Cardona Coll
Women's Sprint -  - Emily Harrop
Mixed Relay - 
 
 
 

I'm only going to predict the winners
 
PART 1
 
Biathlon
 
Men's 10km Sprint -  Johannes Thinges Bø
Men's 20km Individual -  Johannes Thinges Bø
Men's 12.5km Pursuit -  Johannes Thinges Bø
Men's 15km Mass Start -  Sturla Holm Lægreid
Men's 4x7.5km Relay - 
Women's 7.5km Sprint -  - Justine Braisaz-Bouchet
Women's 15km Individual -  - Lisa Vitozzi
Women's 10km Pursuit -  - Julia Simon
Women's 12.5km Mass Start -  - Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold
Women's 4x6km Relay - 
Mixed 4x6km Relay - 
 
Bobsleigh
 
2 man -  -  Johannes Lochner
4 Man -  -  Francesco Freidrich
Monobob -  - Laura Nolte
2 Woman -  - Lisa Buckwitz
 
Skeleton
 
Men's -  -  Marcus Wyatt
Woman's -  - Hannah Neise
Mixed Team - 
 
Curling
 
Men's - 
Women's - 
Mixed Doubles - 
 
Ice Hockey
 
Men's - 
Women's - 
 
Luge 
 
Men's Singles -  - Max Langenhan
Men's Doubles -  - Eggert/Müller
Women's Singles -  - Madeleine Egle
Women's Doubles -  - Egle/Kipp
Team - 
 
Figure Skating
 
Men's Singles -  - Ilia Malinin 
Women's Singles -  - Kaori Sakamoto
Pairs -  - Hase/Volodin
Ice Dance -  - Guignard/Fabbri
Team - 
 
Short Track Speed Skating 
 
Men's 500m -  - William Dandjinou
Men's 1000m -  - Petro Sighel 
Men's 1500m -  - Jens Van't Wout
Men's Relay -  
Women's 500m -  - Xandra Velzeboer
Women's 1000m -  - Xandra Velzeboer
Women's 1500m -  - Ariana Fontana
Women's Relay - 
Mixed Relay - 
 
Speed Skating
 
Men's 500m -  - Jordan Stolz
Men's 1000m -  - Jordan Stolz
Men's 1500m -  - Jordan Stolz
Men's 5000m -  - Patrick Roest
Men's 10000m -  - Davide Giotto
Men's Mass Start -  - Bart Hoolwerf
Men's Team Pursuit - 
Women's 500m -  - Suzanne Schulting
Women's 1000m -  - Angel Daleman
Women's 1500m -  - Angel Daleman
Women's 3000m -  - Ragne Wiklund
Women's 5000m -  - Joy Beune
Women's Mass Start -  - Marijke Groenewoud
Women's Team Pursuit - 
 
Alpine Skiing
 
Men's Downhill -  - Marco Odermatt
Men's Super G -  - Marco Odermatt
Men's Giant Slalom -  - Marco Odermatt
Men's Slalom -  - Henrik Kristoffersen
Men's Alpine Combined -  - Loic Meillard
Women's Downhill -  - Sofia Goggia
Women's Super G -  - Sofia Goggia
Woman's Giant Slalom -  - Lara Gut-Behrami
Women's Slalom -  - Michaela Shiffrin
Women's Alpine Combined -  - Federica Bridgione
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

TBH I just try to support European athletes where I can, but I do prefer some countries over others in certain sports.
 
 
 
Alpine Skiing -  
Biathlon -   
Bobsleigh -  
Cross Country Skiing - 
Curling -  
Figure Skating -   
Freestyle Skiing -  
Ice Hockey - 
Luge -  
Nordic Combined -  
Short Track Speed Skating -   
Skeleton -  
Ski Jumping -   
Ski Mountaineering -  
Snowboarding -   
Speed Skating -  
 
 
 
 

- Great Britain
Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2026 Milano Cortina
 
Ski Sports
 
Alpine Skiing  (4) - The qualification system is a bit confusing, but from what I gather the team is Guaranteed 2 quotas (one for each gender), and then more are given for rankings. I can only see 1 female qualifying, but the men's team is a bit stronger, and could improve with some juniors coming through. I would say a baseline of 3, with a max of 5, 6 if things really improve. 
Cross Country Skiing  (3) - The men's team came 11th in the world cup last year, and with some good results could move up to top 10 which would give 3 quotas, The women's team is non existant. 
Ski Jumping  (0) - Nope
Nordic Combined  (0) - Nope
Freestyle Skiing  (6) - Based on last year rankings, the athletes are ranked: M Moguls (26/30), M Ski Cross (26/32), M Halfpipe (33/25), M Slopestyle (39+40/30) W Moguls (23+42/30), W Halfpipe (3/25), W Big Air (5/30), W Slopestyle (19+22/30)  Barring Injury , thats 2 quotas on the women's side, and I would predict 4 more, with a max team of 7 or 8.
Snowboarding  (2) - W Halfpipe (34/25) is the only unknown quota, as both Charlotte Bankes and Mia Brookes should qualify easily. Huw Nightlingale may get a spot for the Mixed Team snowboard cross but I don't know how it works.
Biathlon  (0) - Nope
Ski Mountaineering  (0) - Nope
 
 
Skating Sports
 
Speed Skating  (2) - Cornelius Kersten and Elia Smelding should qualify, although they both haven't competed this year.
Short Track Speed Skating  (2) - A team of 5 went to the world but only a couple could really qualify
Figure Skating  (4) - Fear and Gibson should qualify, and the pair team is ranked 16th in the world with 19 qualifiers. 
 
 
Sleigh Sports
 
Luge  (0) - Nope
Skeleton  (6) - A full team is certainly on the cards, but with only ranking points from the next season counting a lot could change
Bobsleigh  (6) - Brad Hall and Co should qualify for both 2 and 4 man. I doubt any more will qualify from the mens side. Adele Nicholl on the womens should also qualify in both events
 
 
Team Sports
 
Curling  (12) - Anything but a full team would be a dissapointment
Ice Hockey  (0) - The men were the only chance
 
 
 
Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (60)
Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (32)
 
Total Realistic Prediction  -  (47)

I'll give you the curling comments based on your expertise. But, I will say that GB have only ever not qualified a curling team once, the mixed pair in 2018. They just have a way of upping their game when the olympics come around. 
 
I hope I'm wrong but I have a funny feeling that Huw Nightingale won't qualify and as such neither will the Mixed Team. It feels a bit like the Mixed Team Skeet in Paris, where Ben Llewellin missed out on qualifying for the individual so the team couldn't compete, despite being World Champions 2 years prior. 
 
Again, you definately know more about ice hockey than me but I feel like, apart from vs Norway, the Team wasn't outplayed in the final qualifier. Albeit intermittently, the team has been in the top division of the world championships for a few years now, so they do have the quality to compete for an Olympic Berth

- Great Britain
Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2026 Milano Cortina
 
Ski Sports
 
Alpine Skiing  (4) - The qualification system is a bit confusing, but from what I gather the team is Guaranteed 2 quotas (one for each gender), and then more are given for rankings. I can only see 1 female qualifying, but the men's team is a bit stronger, and could improve with some juniors coming through. I would say a baseline of 3, with a max of 5, 6 if things really improve. 
Cross Country Skiing  (3) - The men's team came 11th in the world cup last year, and with some good results could move up to top 10 which would give 3 quotas, The women's team is non existant. 
Ski Jumping  (0) - Nope
Nordic Combined  (0) - Nope
Freestyle Skiing  (6) - Based on last year rankings, the athletes are ranked: M Moguls (26/30), M Ski Cross (26/32), M Halfpipe (33/25), M Slopestyle (39+40/30) W Moguls (23+42/30), W Halfpipe (3/25), W Big Air (5/30), W Slopestyle (19+22/30)  Barring Injury , thats 2 quotas on the women's side, and I would predict 4 more, with a max team of 7 or 8.
Snowboarding  (2) - W Halfpipe (34/25) is the only unknown quota, as both Charlotte Bankes and Mia Brookes should qualify easily. Huw Nightlingale may get a spot for the Mixed Team snowboard cross but I don't know how it works.
Biathlon  (0) - Nope
Ski Mountaineering  (0) - Nope
 
 
Skating Sports
 
Speed Skating  (2) - Cornelius Kersten and Elia Smelding should qualify, although they both haven't competed this year.
Short Track Speed Skating  (2) - A team of 5 went to the world but only a couple could really qualify
Figure Skating  (4) - Fear and Gibson should qualify, and the pair team is ranked 16th in the world with 19 qualifiers. 
 
 
Sleigh Sports
 
Luge  (0) - Nope
Skeleton  (6) - A full team is certainly on the cards, but with only ranking points from the next season counting a lot could change
Bobsleigh  (6) - Brad Hall and Co should qualify for both 2 and 4 man. I doubt any more will qualify from the mens side. Adele Nicholl on the womens should also qualify in both events
 
 
Team Sports
 
Curling  (12) - Anything but a full team would be a dissapointment
Ice Hockey  (0) - The men were the only chance
 
 
 
Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (60)
Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (32)
 
Total Realistic Prediction  -  (47)

My knowledge of Winter sport isn't great, and I feel I tend to be over optimistic but I'll give it a go for .
 
Alpine Skiing - Never won a medal before but Zak-Carrick Smith picked up 3 including 2 golds at the Winter Youth Olympics earlier in the year. It's clearly a very outside shot but we will see how he progresses. Dave Ryding could also medal on his day, although he will be 39 in 2026
 
Bobsleigh - Brad Hall and Co have been in with a shot for a number of years now, winning numerous medals on the worlds circuit. 2026 will likely be their last but I can see them giving it a good go. Adele Nicoll is still a relative newbie but with another 2 seasons under her belt and some help from hall she could be a contender. 
 
Cross Country Skiing - Andrew Musgrave is still kicking around and he has won world cup medals in the past.
 
Curling - In 2022 our only medals came in curling. Bruce Mouat will certainly go in as one of the favourites, but the women's team is going through a bit of rebuilding. Double gold at the winter youth games bodes well for the future
 
Figure Skating - Fear and Gibson have looked good this year and could return us to the golden era of the 80's. 
 
Freestyle Skiing - Zoe Atkin and Kirsty Muir both won medals at last year world cup, and Atkin took silver at the worlds, so they would be medal contenders, but both in very crowded events
 
Short Track Speed Skating - Not really and serious opportunities after the retirement of Elise Christie. 
 
Skeleton - After an extremely disappointing Beijing, the team has bounced back well and will be competitive in all 3 events, it's nice to see the team having a range of strong athletes rather than being dominated by a couple of exceptional ones. We better not do to well though, or the American's may blame us for cheating again.
 
Snowboarding - Mia Brookes is the current world Champion, and would be the most likely to medal in 2026. In the Snowboard Cross, Charlotte Bankes will be up there, and I feel like Huw Nightingale could progress this year, after some great performances in the Mixed team event.
 
 
As is the case with British Winter Sport, there are no clear favourites in any events, but there is a nice mix of competitive athletes in a diverse range of sports. 

Coming into Beijing, I (perhaps naïvely), believed that GB could get 5+ golds. In 2026, that possibility is still there, if not slightly greater, but my expectations have been lowered. 
We are still quite far away from the games but I feel the team is shaping up quite nicely, with a nice breadth of medal contending sports as opposed to our usual medal factories.