Southeast Asian Games 2025

[dcmdtruefan 40]

10 hours ago, PHI2019 said:

Latest news from the local press is that Carlos Yulo will be skipping the Southeast Asian Games.

It is a shame that a stupid rule has chased away who is likely considered to be the best world class Southeast Asian athlete within the Olympic Sports. 

[dcmdtruefan 40]

I have been gone for more than a month as I have been busy with work and studies. I have just finished an exam that has implications towards my efforts in attaining a work certification. Now, I have the time to write more about my thoughts about this year's SEA Games. As I have stated in my previous posts, I will write my predictions of the gold medal winners in the Olympic events in the SEA Games in the upcoming days. I don't want to predict the winners for the non-Olympic events because I don't have the desire to do research and make a prediction to who is going to win some event in Pencak Silat or Thai boxing.

 

However, I want to give a historical context in the past 3-4 decades of the SEA Games medal tally in Olympic events in order to give some context to the performance trends of notable countries. Based on wikipedia research and sources, I was able to make a gold medal tally of Olympic events in the SEA Games from around 1985 until 2023. My artibrary definition of what counts as an Olympic event in each of the past SEA Games is that in what Olympic year is that particular SEA Games edition is preceding for. For instance, in an 1988 Olympic cycle, the preceding SEA Games editions were 1985 and 1987. Therefore, the olympic events for the 1985 and 1987 SEA Games will be ones that are listed in the 1988 Summer Olympics.

 

So, here's the list of gold medal tallys in Olympic events in the past SEA Games editions since 1985:

 

1985-Thailand: Total (154 out of 237 Olympic events in 1988 hosted): Thailand 54, Indonesia 33, Philippines 27, Malaysia 20, Singapore 11, Burma 8, Not accounted 2 

1987-Indonesia: Total (189/237): Indonesia 90, Philippines 31, Thailand 30, Malaysia 23, Singapore 9, Burma 6, Not accounted 1

1989-Malaysia: Total (182/257): Indonesia 65, Thailand 38, Malaysia 36, Philippines 18, Singapore 15, Myanmar 8, Brunei 1

1991-Philippines: Total (178/257): Indonesia 60, Thailand 47, Philippines 43, Malaysia 17, Myanmar 7, Singapore 3, Vietnam 2

1993-Singapore: Total (175/271): Indonesia 57, Thailand 40, Philippines 32, Malaysia 20, Singapore 18, Myanmar 6, Vietnam 2, Not accounted 1

1995-Thailand: Total (195/271): Thailand 96, Indonesia 44, Philippines 24, Malaysia 14, Singapore 14, Vietnam 4, Myanmar 1

1997-Indonesia: Total (249/291): Indonesia 108, Thailand 57, Malaysia 34, Philippines 27, Vietnam 13, Singapore 13

1999-Brunei: Total (122/300): Thailand 47, Malaysia 29, Indonesia 21, Singapore 13, Philippines 7, Vietnam 4, Laos 1

2001-Malaysia: Total (229/302): Thailand 80, Malaysia 58, Indonesia 41, Singapore 15, Philippines 13, Vietnam 11, Myanmar 9

2003-Vietnam: Total (234/301): Thailand 65, Vietnam 55, Indonesia 33, Malaysia 32, Philippines 27, Singapore 17, Myanmar 7

2005-Philippines: Total (233/302): Thailand 53, Philippines 44, Vietnam 34, Malaysia 33, Indonesia 31, Singapore 29, Myanmar 10

2007-Thailand: Total (254/302): Thailand 85, Malaysia 37, Vietnam 36, Indonesia 35, Singapore 30, Philippines 27, Myanmar 6

2009-Laos: Total (181/302): Thailand 44, Vietnam 27, Malaysia 26, Indonesia 26, Singapore 24, Philippines 21, Laos 7, Myanmar 5

2011-Indonesia: Total (254/302): Thailand 71, Indonesia 58, Vietnam 52, Malaysia 31, Singapore 27, Philippines 14, Myanmar 2, Laos 1

2013-Myanmar: Total (205/306): Thailand 58, Vietnam 31, Indonesia 29, Singapore 27, Malaysia 26, Philippines 18, Myanmar 12, Laos 4, Cambodia 3

2015-Singapore: Total (215/306): Vietnam 49, Thailand 45, Singapore 43, Malaysia 31, Indonesia 26, Philippines 19, Myanmar 3

2017-Malaysia: Total (207/340): Malaysia 54, Vietnam 45, Thailand 40, Singapore 32, Indonesia 21, Philippines 15, Myanmar 1, Cambodia 1

2019-Philippines: Total (227/339): Vietnam 53, Philippines 46, Thailand 43, Indonesia 37, Singapore 27, Malaysia 21, Cambodia 1

2022-Vietnam: Total (234/329): Vietnam 89, Thailand 42, Indonesia 31, Singapore 28, Philippines 25, Malaysia 21, Cambodia 1

2023-Cambodia: Total (196/329): Vietnam 48, Thailand 37, Singapore 37, Indonesia 27, Philippines 20, Malaysia 16, Cambodia 10, Myanmar 1

Note: The name of the host country of each listed edition is next to the year of that particular edition.

 

Here is my observation and analysis of these numbers:

 

Observations:

 

• The host country usuallly has a boost in their gold medal numbers in comparison of their usual performance outside of their home country.
• Indonesia dominated the Olympic events tally during the 1980's and early 1990's while only losing to Thailand when the latter gets to host the SEA Games. This trend correlates with the numbers of the actual overall SEA Games gold medal tally in which Indonesia wins about every one of them during the time period.
• Thailand dominated the tally by being the # 1 country from 1999-2013. Since then, it has been generally been either # 2 or # 3. This trend correlates with Thailand's performance in the overall tally which sees them usually in # 2 in editions hosted in major powerhouses and in # 1 in editions hosted in non-powerhouse countries such as in Laos, Brunei and Myanmar with the exception of 2015 in that Thailand won the overall tally in Singapore, but was only # 2 in the Olympic events tally.
• Vietnam has been the best performing country in the Olympic events tally since 2019. They have been usually in the top 3 since the 2003 edition.

 

Analysis of trends:

 

• It is my belief that the explanation of the fluctuating performances of the major powerhouses is correlated with their socio-economic development. Indonesia's dominance in the 1980's and 1990's came along with their relative positive economic development trend until the Asian Economic crisis in 1998 in which saw a huge economic downturn and political turmoil within the country. Since 1997, Indonesia has never won the gold medal tally in a SEA Games hosted outside of its country.
• Thailand 's dominance during the 1999-2013 correlated with the period of relative economic prosperity that came with the boom of tourism and services sector, while its gradual drop-off since 2015 coincided with the the country's failure to increase its pace of economic development as well as having an internal political turmoil since the 2006 coup.
• Vietnam's rise coincides with the gradual rise of its economic development as a result of receiving an increase of foreign investment money from foreign businesses.
• The reason why economic development is a main reason for a country's performance in the gold medal tally is due to the fact that all countries' sports programs are funded by their respective state government. Thus, the better economic shape a country can be in, the more likely they're going to do well in the gold medal tally. Economic development is more of a key factor when you consider the fact that gentically, none of the SEA countries have a huge competitive advantage in terms of their physical features/structure over others.
• I would admit though, that there is a flaw in my argument as Singapore, the most prosperous country in the region has never won the gold medal tally, although they have been getting better in the past decade.

[dcmdtruefan 40]

As I have stated earlier I would write up my SEA Games predictions for the Olympic sport events. Here is my detalied predictions with the name of the country winning in each of the 262 Olympic events hosted in LA 2028 and 5 weighlifting events hosted in Paris 2024

 

Total: Thailand 90, Singapore 50, Vietnam 47, Indonesia 33, Philippines 24, Malaysia 20, Cambodia 2

 Aquatics-Artistic Swimming (2): Singapore 1, Thailand 1

 W: Duet: Singapore; MX: Team: Thailand

 

Aquatics-Diving (3): Malaysia 2, Thailand 1

 Men: 3 m Springboard: Thailand, Synchronized 3 m: Malaysia

 Women: Synchronized 10 m: Malaysia

 
Aquatics-Swimming (40): Singapore 24, Vietnam 6, Philippines 4, Thailand 3, Malaysia 2, Indonesia 1

 Men: 50 m Freestyle: Singapore, 100 m Freestyle: Singapore, 200 m Freestyle: Malaysia, 400 m Freestyle: Malaysia, 1,500 m Freestyle: Vietnam, 50 m Backstroke: Singapore, 100 m Backstroke: Singapore, 200 m Backstroke: Singapore, 50 m Breaststroke: Indonesia, 100 m Breaststroke: Vietnam, 200 m Breaststroke: Vietnam, 50 m Butterfly: Singapore, 100 m Butterfly: Singapore, 200 m Butterfly: Thailand, 200 m Individual Medley: Vietnam, 400 m Individual Medley: Vietnam, 4 x 100 m Freestyle Relay: Singapore, 4 x 200 m Freestyle Relay: Singapore, 4 x 100 m Medley Relay: Singapore, 10 km Open Water: Vietnam

 Women: 50 m Freestyle: Singapore, 100 m Freestyle: Philippines, 200 m Freestyle: Singapore, 400 m Freestyle: Singapore, 800 m Freestyle: Singapore, 50 m Backstroke: Philippines, 100 m Backstroke: Philippines, 200 m Backstroke: Philippines, 50 m Breaststroke: Singapore, 100 m Breaststroke: Singapore, 200 m Breaststroke: Singapore, 50 m Butterfly: Singapore, 100 m Butterfly: Singapore, 200 m Butterfly: Thailand, 200 m Individual Medley: Singapore, 400 m Individual Medley: Thailand, 4 x 100 m Freestyle Relay: Singapore, 4 x 200 m Freestyle Relay: Singapore, 4 x 100 m Medley Relay: Singapore, 10 km Open Water: Singapore

 
Aquatics-Water Polo (2): Singapore 1, Thailand 1

 Men’s Team: Singapore; Women’s Team: Thailand

 

Archery (6): Indonesia 4, Vietnam 1

 
Men: Olympic Recurve Individual: Indonesia, Olympic Recurve Team: Indonesia

Women: Olympic Recurve Individual: Indonesia, Olympic Recurve Team: Indonesia

 Mixed: Olympic Recurve Team: Vietnam, Olympic Compound Team: Indonesia

 
Athletics (47): Thailand 15, Vietnam 15, Indonesia 7, Philippines 4, Singapore 4, Malaysia 2

 Men: 100 m: Thailand, 200 m: Thailand, 400 m: Vietnam, 800 m: Malaysia, 1,500 m: Thailand, 5,000 m: Thailand, 10,000 m: Thailand, 3,000 m Steeplechase: Vietnam, 110 m Hurdles: Singapore, 400 m Hurdles: Singapore, 4 x 100 m Relay: Thailand, 4 x 400 m Relay: Vietnam, Marathon: Indonesia, 20 km Walk: Indonesia, High Jump: Thailand, Pole Vault: Philippines, Long Jump: Vietnam, Triple Jump: Thailand, Shot Put: Philippines, Discus Throw: Malaysia, Hammer Throw: Thailand, Javelin Throw: Indonesia, Decathlon: Thailand

 Women: 100 m: Singapore, 200 m: Singapore, 400 m: Vietnam, 800 m: Vietnam, 1,500 m: Vietnam, 5,000 m: Vietnam, 10,000 m: Indonesia, 3,000 m Steeplechase: Vietnam, 100 m Hurdles: Indonesia, 400 m Hurdles: Philippines, 4 x 100 m Relay: Thailand, 4 x 400 m Relay: Vietnam, Marathon: Indonesia, 20 km Walk: Vietnam, High Jump: Vietnam, Pole Vault: Indonesia, Long Jump: Vietnam, Triple Jump: Vietnam, Shot Put: Thailand, Discus Throw: Thailand, Hammer Throw: Thailand, Javelin Throw: Thailand, Heptathlon: Philippines

 MX: 4 x 400 m Relay: Vietnam
 

 

Badminton (5): Malaysia 2, Thailand 2, Indonesia 1

 Men’s Singles: Thailand, Women’s Singles: Indonesia, Men’s Doubles: Malaysia, Women’s Doubles: Malaysia, Mixed Doubles: Thailand

 
Basketball (2): Philippines 2

Men’s Team: Philippines, Women’s Team: Philippines

 

Basketball 3x3 (2): Philippines 1, Thailand 1

 Men’s 3x3 Team: Philippines, Women’s 3x3 Team: Thailand

 
Boxing (11): Thailand 7, Philippines 4

Men: -57 kg (-55 kg): Philippines, -60 kg: Thailand, -63.5 kg (-65 kg): Thailand, -69 kg (-70 kg): Thailand, -80 kg: Philippines

 Women: -50 kg (-51 kg): Thailand, -54 kg: Thailand, -57 kg: Thailand, -60 kg: Philippines, -66 kg (-65 kg): Thailand, -70 kg: Philippines

 
Canoeing (5): Thailand 4, Vietnam 1

 Men: Slalom: C1: Thailand, K1: Thailand

 Women: Sprint: C2 500 m: Vietnam; Slalom: C1: Thailand, K1: Thailand

 
Cycling (8): Thailand 5, Malaysia 3

 Men: Road Race: Thailand, Time Trial: Thailand, Team Sprint: Malaysia, Team Pursuit: Malaysia, Keirin: Malaysia, BMX: Thailand

 Women: Road Race: Thailand, Time Trial: Thailand

 
Equestrian (6): Thailand 5, Philippines 1

 Mixed: Dressage Individual: Philippines, Dressage Team: Thailand, Eventing Individual: Thailand, Eventing Team: Thailand, Show Jumping Individual: Thailand, Show Jumping Team: Thailand

 

Fencing (12): Singapore 9, Philippines 1, Thailand 1, Cambodia 1

 Men: Eppe Individual: Singapore, Foil Individual: Philippines, Sabre Individual: Thailand, Eppe Team: Singapore, Foil Team: Singapore, Sabre Team: Singapore;

 Women: Eppe Individual: Singapore, Foil Individual: Cambodia, Sabre Individual: Singapore, Eppe Team: Singapore, Foil Team: Singapore, Sabre Team: Singapore

 
Field Hockey (2): Malaysia 2

 Men’s Team: Malaysia, Women’s Team: Malaysia

 

Football (2): Thailand 1, Vietnam 1

Men’s Team: Thailand, Women’s Team: Vietnam

 
Golf (2): Thailand 2

Men’s Individual: Thailand, Women’s Individual: Thailand

 
Gymnastics (12): Vietnam 4, Singapore 2, Thailand 2, Malaysia 2, Philippines 1, Indonesia 1

 Men: Floor Exercise: Thailand, Pommel Horse: Vietnam, Rings: Vietnam, Vault: Philippines, Parallel Bars: Vietnam, Horizontal Bar: Indonesia

 Women: Floor Exercise: Thailand, Vault: Vietnam, Uneven Bars: Malaysia, Balance Beam: Singapore, Rhythmic All-Around: Singapore, Rhythmic Group: Malaysia;


Handball (2): Thailand 1, Vietnam 1

Men’s Team: Thailand; Women’s Team: Vietnam

 
Judo (9): Thailand 6, Vietnam 2, Philippines 1

 Men: -73 kg: Thailand, -81 kg: Thailand, -90 kg: Vietnam, -100 kg: Philippines

 Women: -57 kg: Vietnam, -70 kg: Thailand, -78 kg: Thailand, +78 kg: Thailand  

 Mixed: Team: Thailand

 
Rowing (7): Vietnam 3, Thailand 2, Indonesia 2

 Men: Single Sculls: Indonesia, Double Sculls: Indonesia, Coastal Single Sculls: Thailand

 Women: Double Sculls: Vietnam, Quadruple Sculls: Vietnam, Fours: Vietnam, Coastal Single Sculls: Thailand   

 
Rugby (2): Thailand 2

Men’s Sevens: Thailand, Women’s Sevens: Thailand

 
Sailing (7): Thailand 5, Singapore 2

 Men: iqFoil: Thailand, ICLA 7: Singapore, Kiteboarding: Singapore  

 Women: iqFoil: Thailand, ICLA 6: Thailand, Kiteboarding: Thailand

 Mixed: 470: Thailand

 
Shooting (13): Thailand 4, Vietnam 3, Singapore 3, Malaysia 2, Indonesia 1

 Men: Rifle 3x 40: Thailand, Air Pistol: Malaysia, 25 m Rapid Fire Pistol: Vietnam, Trap: Singapore, Skeet: Malaysia

 Women: Air Rifle: Thailand, Rifle 3x 40: Singapore, Air Pistol: Vietnam, 25 m Pistol: Vietnam, Trap: Thailand, Skeet: Thailand

 Mixed: Air Rifle Team: Singapore, Air Pistol Team: Indonesia

 
Skateboarding (4): Indonesia 2, Thailand 1, Philippines 1

 Men: Street: Indonesia, Park: Philippines

 Women: Street: Thailand, Park: Indonesia

 
Sport Climbing (6): Indonesia 3, Thailand 2, Singapore 1

 Men: Bouldering: Thailand, Lead: Thailand, Speed: Indonesia

 Women: Bouldering: Singapore, Lead: Indonesia, Speed: Indonesia

 
Table Tennis (5): Singapore 3, Thailand 2

Men’s Singles: Singapore, Women’s Singles: Thailand, Men’s Doubles: Singapore, Women’s Doubles: Thailand, Mixed Doubles: Singapore

 

Taekwondo (8): Thailand 5, Vietnam 3

 Men: -58 kg: Thailand, -68 kg: Thailand, -80 kg: Thailand, -87 kg (+80 kg): Thailand

 Women: -49 kg: Thailand, -57 kg: Vietnam, -67 kg: Vietnam, -73 kg (+67 kg): Vietnam

 
Tennis (5): Indonesia 3, Thailand 2

Men’s Singles: Thailand, Women’s Singles: Indonesia, Men’s Doubles: Thailand, Women’s Doubles: Indonesia, Mixed Doubles: Indonesia

 
Triathlon (3): Indonesia 3

Men’s Individual: Indonesia, Women’s Individual: Indonesia, Mixed Relay Team: Indonesia

 
Volleyball (2): Indonesia 1, Thailand 1  

Men’s Team: Indonesia, Women’s Team: Thailand

 
Beach Volleyball (2): Indonesia 1, Thailand 1

Men’s Beach: Indonesia, Women’s Beach: Thailand
 

 

Weightlifting (5): Thailand 4, Philippines 1

 Men: -61 kg: Thailand, -73 kg: Thailand

 Women: -49 kg: Thailand, -59 kg: Thailand, -71 kg: Philippines

 
Wrestling (12): Vietnam 7, Indonesia 3, Philippines 1, Cambodia 1

 Men's Freestyle: -57 kg: Philippines, -65 kg: Vietnam, -74 kg: Vietnam, -86 kg: Cambodia

Men's Greco-Roman: -60 kg: Vietnam, -67 kg: Indonesia, -77 kg: Indonesia, -87 kg: Indonesia

Women's Freestyle: -50 kg: Vietnam, -53 kg: Vietnam, -57 kg: Vietnam, -62 kg: Vietnam
 

 

Baseball & Softball (2): Philippines 2

Men’s Baseball: Philippines, Women’s Softball: Philippines

 
Cricket (2): Malaysia 1, Thailand 1

 Men’s T20: Malaysia, Women’s T20: Thailand

 
Squash (2): Malaysia 2

Men’s Singles: Malaysia, Women’s Singles: Malaysia

 

Most of my predictions were made in combination of factors of performances in international competitions in 2025 as well as in the 2024 Olympics and the lastest SEA Games. Some sports that I don't have enough information to go by such as Judo or Wrestling has forced to make those predictions with a less than 50 percent certainty.  

About 2-3 months ago, I would have guess that Thailand's numbers would be nearer to 80 rather than 90 as their quality in major Olympic Sports (i.e. Athletics, Swimming, Shooting, Gymnastics) have declined over the past decade or so. According to my predictions, despite such struggles, Thailand's overall quality in other Olympic Sports is enough to paper through the cracks in the development of its Olympic sports program. It would be an embarassment to myself at least if Thailand is not able to win the gold medal count in either of the four major Olympic sports.

 

Singapore would finish second due to its enormous strength in swmming as well as improving in athletics, gymnastics and shooting. I wouldn't expect Vietnam to win only 47 Olympic events as it has dominated the Olympic events count for the past three editions, but their lack of adequate funding may explain the reason of their potential underperformance in these predictions. 

 

Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines all have lower numbers of expected Olympic events won in this year's edition as they are impacted by the number of Olympic events that was cut from the SEA Games, especially in gymnastics, cycling, canoeing and rowing. 

 

If I have the time in the enxt week or so before the games begins, I will preview some of the key Olympic Sports hosted at Thailand with some highlights of interesting events and likely rising stars. And of course, at the end of the games, we will look back at how accurate my predictions are.   

[PHI2019 309]

Cambodia pulls out of eight sports at Thai SEA Games over ‘safety’ as border row simmers
 

https://www.straitstimes.com/sport/cambodia-pulls-out-of-eight-sports-at-sea-games-over-safety

[Griff88 2,008]

First event to start tomorrow... but the result page is still coming soon.

 

The local Thais are unhappy with the mess in ticketing and preparation in general. Some even commented "you are preparing like a TV cooking show" in the official Facebook page

[dcmdtruefan 40]

1 hour ago, Griff88 said:

First event to start tomorrow... but the result page is still coming soon.

 

The local Thais are unhappy with the mess in ticketing and preparation in general. Some even commented "you are preparing like a TV cooking show" in the official Facebook page

Some Thai made a joke online by saying that the name of the soundtrack  music for this year's Sea Games, which is titled "1 Percent", actually refers to the amount of preaparation and readiness that the Thai organization has in hosting the Sea Games. Many Thais know that they like to prepare things in the last minute. It's bascially a cultural thing.  

 

All that Thailand has is their claim to be the host that cheats the least and actually hosts the most Olympic sports events among the Sea game shost countries. And if they're willing to list to online voices from foreign sources, they are going to have to accept that such belief is not true anymore. 

 

I think the challenge for most Thais is to accept that their country is actually not that different from others in terms of earnestness in hosting sports events and that they have taken short cuts such as cutting a number of olympic sports events from this year's competition. It doesn't help that the Thai media does not like to report negative stuff about Thai governing sports bodies. For instance, Thai media has omitted the true reason why Carlos Yulo has withdrawn from this year's competition. The Thai media simply states that he chose to skip these games.   

[dcmdtruefan 40]

2 hours ago, Griff88 said:

First event to start tomorrow... but the result page is still coming soon.

 

The local Thais are unhappy with the mess in ticketing and preparation in general. Some even commented "you are preparing like a TV cooking show" in the official Facebook page

Any predictions on how well Indonesia will do in the sea games, especially in Olympic events?

[Griff88 2,008]

20 hours ago, dcmdtruefan said:

I think the challenge for most Thais is to accept that their country is actually not that different from others in terms of earnestness in hosting sports events and that they have taken short cuts such as cutting a number of olympic sports events from this year's competition. It doesn't help that the Thai media does not like to report negative stuff about Thai governing sports bodies. For instance, Thai media has omitted the true reason why Carlos Yulo has withdrawn from this year's competition. The Thai media simply states that he chose to skip these games.   

Same thing happened to the sport climbing, the Indonesian Olympians are not joining, so we send junior athletes instead (which has better times than most Southeast Asian climbers anyway). The Indonesian Sport Climbing Federation president said that "there are pressure to ensure we do not include our top athletes".

Edited Wednesday at 03:52 AM by Griff88

[Griff88 2,008]

20 hours ago, dcmdtruefan said:

Any predictions on how well Indonesia will do in the sea games, especially in Olympic events?

I think business as usual, because we are not mining medals in swimming and athletics. At best we could be third on the medal tally.

 

Our aquatics federation did a lot of preparation compared to previous editions, let's see how they fare against Singapore and Vietnam. Athletics held training camp in Japan and Kenya. In badminton we only send the best young athletes, but people expect Thailand to dominate as they send all their world class players (as you might expect from a host).

Edited Wednesday at 03:59 AM by Griff88

[dcmdtruefan 40]

25 minutes ago, Griff88 said:

Same thing happened to the sport climbing, the Indonesian Olympians are not joining, so we send junior athletes instead (which has better times than most Southeast Asian climbers anyway). The Indonesian Sport Climbing Federation president said that "there are pressure to ensure we do not include our top athletes".

As you said, the Indonesian youth climbers are still good enough to win the speed events. The quote from the Indonesian sport climbing federations makes me see that there are more political machinations behind the scenes, especially from the host country, more than I realized in terms of coercing others into who they can or can't send to the competition. 

 

I don't like it, but I guess is a part of life especially in the region that is known for underhanded/indirect dealings in terms of governance.