Your safest Gold Medal Picks for Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[dodge 1,024]

Hayter won the European championships this year on count back in the final race. Even a single extra point for Larsen would have beaten him. 
 

He’s favourite, but no way is he a lock 

[Faramir 363]

No individual in:
- bunch races;
- knockout tournaments;
- short races where you have only one attempt and one small mistake makes you lose

should be considered a lock. 

[Surreal 5]

Lets talk about Athletics:

 

Sydney Mclaughlin  : W 400M Hurdles

Kipyegon  : W 1500m

Ingebrigtsen  : M 5000M

Crouser  : M Shot Put

Duplantis  : M Pole Vault

 

They all seem like pretty safe gold medal picks to me - Thoughts?. Anyone missing?

 

Edited July 3 by Surreal

[Surreal 5]

3 hours ago, dodge said:

Hayter won the European championships this year on count back in the final race. Even a single extra point for Larsen would have beaten him. 
 

He’s favourite, but no way is he a lock 

True, although I will say that he normally tends to start his seson slowly and build into it, he was much better at the nations cup in Miton and should be better still in Paris.

[AsensioWillemsen 158]

3 hours ago, Faramir said:

No individual in:
- bunch races;
- knockout tournaments;
- short races where you have only one attempt and one small mistake makes you lose

should be considered a lock. 

Isn't that like 90% of the sports?

 

Shows sports are basically category 3, most of athletics and cycling is category 2 and all combat and ball sports as well as archery are category 1.

 

The only thing that doesn't fit the bill is shooting, sailing, weightlifting and golf (and maybe athletics field/combined events as well as mid-long distance swimming), of which 2 out of 4 I wouldn't exactly call predictable anyway. Weightlifting and Sailing (as well as field events and mid-long distance swimming) tend to be the more predictable sports where there is often a clear winner however.

[heywoodu 15,135]

1 hour ago, Surreal said:

True, although I will say that he normally tends to start his seson slowly and build into it, he was much better at the nations cup in Miton and should be better still in Paris.

But most of the top riders should be better in Paris  

 

There is no way anyone in the omnium would even get anywhere near having like a 90% win chance...

[Faramir 363]

20 hours ago, AsensioWillemsen said:

Isn't that like 90% of the sports?

 

Shows sports are basically category 3, most of athletics and cycling is category 2 and all combat and ball sports as well as archery are category 1.

 

The only thing that doesn't fit the bill is shooting, sailing, weightlifting and golf (and maybe athletics field/combined events as well as mid-long distance swimming), of which 2 out of 4 I wouldn't exactly call predictable anyway. Weightlifting and Sailing (as well as field events and mid-long distance swimming) tend to be the more predictable sports where there is often a clear winner however.

yes, shooting, golf, etc. are unpredictable. A lot of athletics and swimming events are predictable but you need to dominate to be considered a lock (Crouser, Duplantis, etc.). There's also rowing (ok, only singles since I was talking individuals), diving, some cycling.

Those criteria that I wrote were a sort of reply to "locks" previously mentioned in the the thread in the omnium, 50m freestyle, tennis.

[AsensioWillemsen 158]

3 hours ago, Faramir said:

yes, shooting, golf, etc. are unpredictable. A lot of athletics and swimming events are predictable but you need to dominate to be considered a lock (Crouser, Duplantis, etc.). There's also rowing (ok, only singles since I was talking individuals), diving, some cycling.

Those criteria that I wrote were a sort of reply to "locks" previously mentioned in the the thread in the omnium, 50m freestyle, tennis.

If you are dominant, you are dominant. Women's Basketball is a KO format, but no way anybody but USA will win it.

There are some sports that are never locks though. Like Taekwondo, individual Archery, Tennis, Boxing..

[Faramir 363]

Just now, AsensioWillemsen said:

If you are dominant, you are dominant. Women's Basketball is a KO format, but no way anybody but USA will win it.

Ok but the premise was "no individual in...", team sports or team events are where most locks can be found.

[Somebodyyouknow 87]

How has somebody not mentioned Weightlifting till now? It is probably the most predictable sport in the Olympics.

Going by the easiest gold medallists, I think Li Fabin  (Men's 61 kg), Lasha Talakhadze  (Mens 102+kg), Hou Zhihui  (Women's 49 kg) and Li Wenwen  (Women's 81+kg) are guaranteed gold medallists.