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Квалификационо пролеће 2024.


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Нико од атлетичара није искористио шансу на националном да се докопа Париза. Слично је било и на ЕП у воденим спортовима.

 

Ако сам ја добро рачунао, имаћемо 111 такмичара. Квоте су сигурне за Синанчевића у кугли и за Ању на 400 мешовито. Колашинац ће врв испасти са те последње позиције на листи. Од осталих нико нема шансу ни у атлетици, ни у пливању. 

 

Само 5 атлетичара и 3 пливача (рачунајући само сингл трке) је по мени јако јако слабо

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Što se tiče Asmira - nije baš celu godinu loš, imao je 4 ili 5 takmičenja preko 20 metara, doduše najduže samo 20.41 što je daleko od ranijih godina, ali je glavni problem bio što su to bila ili takmičenja slabog ranga ili je bila B kategorija, a slab plasman. Od kada se računa ovaj prosek najboljih takmičenja - mora se postizati najbolji rezultat na najvažnijim takmičenjima jer se samo tako postiže maksimalni prosek za određeni nivo rezultata. Imao je npr 2. juna na nekom malo poznatom takmičenju u Sarajevu 20.27, a onda na 2 uzastopna velika takmičenja, evropsko i državno bacao katastrofalno. Ukoliko postoji neki zdravstevni problem onda je šteta što nije mogao bolje, ukoliko je slaba forma onda bolje i da ne ide.

 

Što se tiče samog plasmana, proveravao sam neke takmičare iza njega, mislim da su ga najmanje dvojica već prešla, jer su pobednici državnih prvenstava u Portugaliji i Švedskoj bacili debelo preko 20 metara, a bili su između 33 i 40 na listi.

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Nema pouzdane informacije kada rade "update" na rang listi atletičara za OI, ali izgleda da je završeno danas i ovo je poslednja lista, do četvrtka se potvrđuje ko sigurno učestvuje, a u petak i subotu popunjavaju prazna mesta po disciplinama i u nedelju izlazi konačan spisak.

 

Od naših trenutno Strahinja Jovančević 35/32 (treća rezerva), Armin Sinančević 17/32 (prošao na OI), Asmir Kolašinac 34/32 (druga rezerva), Elzan Bibić 44/42 (druga rezerva), Marija Vučenović 36/32 (4. rezerva), ...

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Baš će biti šteta za Elzana, ali šta da se radi, svima ovima će ovo biti samo protokolarno učešće. Sad da vidimo šta ćemo uspeti da dobijemo iz ovog broja učesnika. Ja sam pesimista ali videćemo. 

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Za tenis konačna lista mora da izađe do ponedeljka 8. jula (za singlove i dublove), a onda se prave od istih igrača i miks dublovi do 24. jula. Postoje najave da će ITF objaviti i malo ranije ovaj prvi spisak, tj. u četvrtak ili petak.

 

Za atletiku do četvrtka moraju da odbiju oni koji su trenutno upali preko kvote ili rang liste. Onda u petak i subotu određuju zamene i u nedelju konačna lista.

 

Za streljaštvo je već prošla procedura 28. juna. Ostaje samo univerzalni datum 08. jul - primetio sam da u skoro svim sportovima ima taj datum  - verovatno je u pitanju datum posle koje nema promene spiskova, moguće zbog administrativnih poslova.

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Neki najbolji scenario po meni je sledeći: 

 

Atletika (Španovićka)

Basket 3x3

Košarka muškarci

Odbojka žene

Tenis Đoković

Rvanje

Streljaštvo

 

Ostalo bi bilo bonus:

 

još jedna do dve medalje iz borilačkih sportova (rvanje, tekvondo, džudo)

druga medalja iz streljaštva (mada realnije je da tu bude 0 nego 2)

druga medalja iz atletike (gde mi opet realnije da ni ivana ne uzme nego da uzmu i ona i angelina)

neki totalni bonus neočekivani kao recimo kajak

 

Mislim da je ipak realnije malo da imamo loš ciklus i da završimo sigurno ispod onih 9 medalja iz Tokija. Nekih 7 medalja mislim da bi bilo realno. 

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