GB Athletics

[RussB 189]

1 minute ago, Epic Failure said:

Apologies, my lack of proof reading meant I said something I didn't intend. I meant to say that "that doesn't mean our athletes believe that their best chance of gold is the mixed relay".

 

I'm sure they believe that they can/should medal and I'm sure they believe that they have a decent chance of gold.

 

But MHS surely believes the same about his individual slot. The others maybe less so, but can they win without him? I'm not sure.

 

I guess I'm just not as convinced as you that them going all in on the mixed is statistically more likely. Prior to 2022, sure, I'd agree. But MHS is absolutely a serious gold medal contender. Arguably right now he's the favourite.

 

I certainly would not be classifying MHS as favourite as things stands so yes we do differ. I’m not confident he will deliver his best when it matters in the final. Just my gut feeling and his tendency to go too hard (a la 2023 world champs final) means I can’t have him to be fav. The men’s 400m this year is super open, so perhaps I’ll qualify my statement as I don’t think there is going to be a clear favourite come Paris.

 

I would LOVE to be wrong, I’ll be in the stadium shouting myself coarse for Matt or Charlie to take the title. 
 

Out of curiousity, if you disagree with our top 4 being favs in the mixed relay, which squad do you have as beating us? If the US, what likely personnel does that involve?

 

 

[Epic Failure 355]

4 hours ago, mpjmcevoy said:

The genuine disappointments/concerns are relatively few, albeit they are real and bad - KJT, Eilish, Men's relay, Jessie Knight, Maybe Jemma Reekie in terms of kick. I'm not sure 1, 2 and 4 are fixable, I'm sure 3 is, I'm sure 5 isn't, but not certain that matters.

 

1 and 2 are definitely fixable, albeit not guaranteed. Eilish clearly just needs more miles in her legs. Whether she can get it in time for Paris is very debateable but the problem is pretty easy. She was saying coming into Rome that she was surprised that she was ahead of schedule. She did 5k yesterday, which would on its own be 10th in Britain on time.

 

KJT is the same. You would hope that this was nothing more than an attempted cobweb blowing, so to speak. She realised that she wasn't at top form and if she did have a niggle, there's just no point in risking Paris even 1% for the Euros. Obv with the hept there is always the jeopardy of injury but certainly nothing to worry about right now.

 

Jemma's kick will be less important in the 800m unless both Keely and Mu are injured. Because one of them will be trying to grind the others down. The only time it would be a problem would be if everyone lets Moraa dictate the tempo. It probably still won't be enough for Jemma but I'm not sure there's much more she can do.

 

The relay is immediately fixable with something closer to a first team out - Azu and Hughes would be nailed on the first 2 legs. What the make up of the others is remains to be seen, but there's a perfectly likely possibility that none of the 4 in Rome will even be in the Paris squad.

 

Jessie just looks past her best. Hopefully she'll prove me wrong, but no disgrace if she is. It happens to us all sooner or later.

[Epic Failure 355]

8 minutes ago, RussB said:

I certainly would not be classifying MHS as favourite as things stands so yes we do differ. I’m not confident he will deliver his best when it matters in the final. Just my gut feeling and his tendency to go too hard (a la 2023 world champs final) means I can’t have him to be fav. The men’s 400m this year is super open, so perhaps I’ll qualify my statement as I don’t think there is going to be a clear favourite come Paris.

 

I would LOVE to be wrong, I’ll be in the stadium shouting myself coarse for Matt or Charlie to take the title. 
 

Out of curiousity, if you disagree with our top 4 being favs in the mixed relay, which squad do you have as beating us? If the US, what likely personnel does that involve?

 

 

 

I mean, obviously some degree of guesswork, but let's take the 4th and 5th fastest US runners on SB right now.

 

For the women this year that's Aaliyah Butler (SB 49.79) and Isabella Whittaker (SB 50.17).

 

For the men, that's Christopher Bailey (SB 44.42) and Johnnie Blockburger (SB 44.51)

 

All 8 athletes (both ours and theirs) SB are also PB.

 

Our top 4 beats that team by about 0.15s on SB/PB.

 

The presence of Rai Benjamin and SML in the US list skews things slightly, as I strongly doubt either of them will be in the mixed.

 

But even still, that makes it the 3rd and 4th best US this year basically being the equal of our best. Their depth is terrifying.

 

I'm obviously oversimplifying because that doesn't take into account the fact that some people are better relay runners than others.

 

The US aside, a full strength Jamaican team on full PB form would beat us although that relies on them being on that form *and* choosing to do that mixed relay. I doubt they will. Bahamas the same.

 

[Epic Failure 355]

GBR going with Harries - Ohoize - Davey - AHW in the 4x4, so fair to say they don't really care whether they medal here.

[Epic Failure 355]

Women's 4x100m is interesting - DAS - Henry - Hunt - Neita. Lots of change from the heats.

[RussB 189]

8 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

GBR going with Harries - Ohoize - Davey - AHW in the 4x4, so fair to say they don't really care whether they medal here.

what a disappointment. So frustrating

[RussB 189]

Just now, Epic Failure said:

Women's 4x100m is interesting - DAS - Henry - Hunt - Neita. Lots of change from the heats.

Asha Phillip was not very impressive in the heat so this is the right change. They should be winning gold here with a clean run

[Epic Failure 355]

3 minutes ago, RussB said:

what a disappointment. So frustrating

I mean, they were fairly clear ahead of time that this was a development meet for the relays.

[Epic Failure 355]

3 minutes ago, RussB said:

Asha Phillip was not very impressive in the heat so this is the right change. They should be winning gold here with a clean run

With a clean run, sure. But doing this has meant that all 4 legs are different from the heats (in terms of handoffs). Will be a good test of how well drilled they are to deal with that many changes.

[RussB 189]

1 minute ago, Epic Failure said:

I mean, they were fairly clear ahead of time that this was a development meet for the relays.

They have a chance, a good chance, to win a major title, with all individual events done and no one over worked, and they pass it up. Sorry, as a fan of GB athletics, its pretty pathetic to me to just mail it in with a much weaker team. Why is Charlie C being rested?! Alex has shown utterly no form over two individual races already at this champs, throwing him in the closing leg is going to do more harm than good