[POLL] Should the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games be cancelled, postponed or held at any cost?

[Quaker2001 291]

USA Swimming calls for Tokyo 2020 postponement

[Quaker2001 291]

4 hours ago, phelps said:

 

I don't have any solution, unfortunately...

 

and no, I'm not blaming the USA for defending their interests...

 

we all know that the USA are the strongest political powerhouse in the sports world and that the US TV Networks are those who pay the highest amount of money for the tv rights of almost every event...

 

therefore we have to keep in mind what's easy to adjust and what might be complicated and make all the required adjusments very difficult if not impossible...

 

it's not a question of blaming someone or not, it's only a question of analyzing every situation in depth, without stopping on the surface (which could lead to wrong conclusions or excessive semplification of any question)...

 

You're still making this about the United States' interests.  That's not what will motivate the IOC to make a decision.  They're going to look at their interests and that of Japan to decide the best course of action.  And the amount of money the IOC receives in rights fees from NBC does not change if the Olympics get postponed.  

 

Clearly there are a lot of things for the IOC to look at.  But the usual lead-up to the Olympics has been severely compromised.  If they are to hold the Olympics this summer, they're doing so without the usual level of preparation.  So what it will likely come down to.. do they want to host the Olympics this Summer (if they can) knowing that everyone is not fully ready?  Or do they postpone until next year, even with all the challenges that will come with, and give everyone a chance to prepare.  The answer to that question will have nothing to do with American interests.

[Quaker2001 291]

10 hours ago, Olympian1010 said:

There’s no solution. It’s a lose/lose issue at this point. There’s already of shortage of hosts, and now very few countries are seeing an economic benefit in the events that they are hosting. 
 

More than just World Athletics (no longer IAAF ) will be affected by the Olympics moving. Many smaller, but vital events, will be affected as well, and it would take years for them to recover from this. 
 

The problem with moving the World Athletics Championships from Eugene is the amount of money they’ve invested into them. Why would any country to pay to host the championships, upgrade their venues, upgrade their public infrastructure, etc. if there’s no guarantee the events will happen (same goes for potential Olympic hosts).
 

FINA would lose so much money because of that though, and so would the Japanese government. I agree the Universaide might not be affected, but the field of athletes would be weaker than what we’ve seen in the past few editions. World Games wouldn’t be affected athlete wise, but they’d take a huge market hit. The World Games need protection as well, because they are just as vital to international sports as the Olympics (and that’s according to Thomas Bach). There are dozens of sports that require the World Games to stay in operation. Olympics sports have larger and more supportive fan bases, so they could survive a cancellation, but I fear many of the World Games sports couldn’t.

 

I’m not actually sure how much World Athletics, FINA, IJF, etc. need the Olympics. I think they make more physical capital off their markee events, but I could be wrong. I just think there are a lot of negatives that come with postponing the Olympics, and it’s a messy issue. I’m not sure the Olympics can survive cancellation either. There’s just no good options here really.

 

You have noble intentions, but you have your priorities bass ackwards.  Yes, the cascade of changes to the calendar that might come into play of the Olympics got postponed to 2021 would be difficult to deal with.  My response to that is... "So??"

 

Your line about "why would any country want to host" line is misguided.  This is a historically unprecedented circumstance.  It's not something every potential event host needs build into their agreements any more than they would consider a potential natural disaster that prevents them from hosting their event.

 

You bring up smaller events.. yea, they would suffer if the Olympics got moved to next Summer, but the IOC and the Olympics will always take priority over them.  The World Games are just as vital as the Olympics?  They're being held in Birmingham.  No disrespect to the good people of Alabama, but the list of prior host cities tells me all they need to know about their place in the world.  The IOC will not and likely need not care about what moving to next Summer might mean.

 

As to your last point.. really?  Do you know how many people are watching athletics and swimming during the Olympics compared to the World Championships?  Not even close.  Michael Phelps didn't become a household name from anything he did at a World Championships.  That's crazy to think those organizations don't need the Olympics.  The amount of sponsorship dollars they're generating there far outweigh what they're getting otherwise.

 

We agree that postponing the Olympics is messy.  There may not be another option though.  As the famous saying goes.. "The Games must go on."  And yes, the future of the Olympics would probably be irreparably damaged if they were cancelled outright.

[AmericanHero40 243]

4 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

 

You have noble intentions, but you have your priorities bass ackwards.  Yes, the cascade of changes to the calendar that might come into play of the Olympics got postponed to 2021 would be difficult to deal with.  My response to that is... "So??"

 

Your line about "why would any country want to host" line is misguided.  This is a historically unprecedented circumstance.  It's not something every potential event host needs build into their agreements any more than they would consider a potential natural disaster that prevents them from hosting their event.

 

You bring up smaller events.. yea, they would suffer if the Olympics got moved to next Summer, but the IOC and the Olympics will always take priority over them.  The World Games are just as vital as the Olympics?  They're being held in Birmingham.  No disrespect to the good people of Alabama, but the list of prior host cities tells me all they need to know about their place in the world.  The IOC will not and likely need not care about what moving to next Summer might mean.

 

As to your last point.. really?  Do you know how many people are watching athletics and swimming during the Olympics compared to the World Championships?  Not even close.  Michael Phelps didn't become a household name from anything he did at a World Championships.  That's crazy to think those organizations don't need the Olympics.  The amount of sponsorship dollars they're generating there far outweigh what they're getting otherwise.

 

We agree that postponing the Olympics is messy.  There may not be another option though.  As the famous saying goes.. "The Games must go on."  And yes, the future of the Olympics would probably be irreparably damaged if they were cancelled outright.

 

I feel like the longer they go without announcing postponement the worst it will get as far as damage to the olympics, and more power those anti olympics groups will get. Just enough to see the replies on twitter to each of their posts about the fire flying to tokyo, and not just by noylmpicsla, but a lot of people calling for that.

[phelps 8,404]

6 hours ago, Quaker2001 said:

 

You're still making this about the United States' interests.  That's not what will motivate the IOC to make a decision.  They're going to look at their interests and that of Japan to decide the best course of action.  And the amount of money the IOC receives in rights fees from NBC does not change if the Olympics get postponed.  

 

Clearly there are a lot of things for the IOC to look at.  But the usual lead-up to the Olympics has been severely compromised.  If they are to hold the Olympics this summer, they're doing so without the usual level of preparation.  So what it will likely come down to.. do they want to host the Olympics this Summer (if they can) knowing that everyone is not fully ready?  Or do they postpone until next year, even with all the challenges that will come with, and give everyone a chance to prepare.  The answer to that question will have nothing to do with American interests.

 

that's what I meant when I wrote that we have to look deeper...

 

it doesn't change for the Tokyo Games, but do you really think that the Olympic brand would keep the same value if the Olympics are held in the original date and work perfect under any aspect rather than they are postponed/cancelled/experiencing something tragic?

 

no way...

 

the IOC would lose billions if something goes wrong (and having a conflict with some sports federations/nocs/sponsors means that something went wrong)...

 

p.s. moreover, do you really think that IOC takes any decision in the interest of Japan and in general of the organizing committee of the Games?

then, tell me why do we have the swimming finals late at night (Rio 2016) and/or in the morning (Beijing 2008 and Tokyo 2020)?

why in Tokyo do we have the men's Basketball Bronze Medal match scheduled after the Gold Medal match?

why do we have things like Skateboarding, Surfing, BMX Freestyle, so many events in Swimming and Gymnastics, next time round Break Dance and so on in the Olympic schedule?

 

c'mon!

as I wrote, I'm not blaming anybody, but the US being the main sports politics powerhouse and the US TV Networks' interest being more protected than any other because they are the main contributors of IOC and some international federations is a fact...

and because of that, it's one of the main factors to be taken into account when analyzing pros and cons of taking any decision...

[phelps 8,404]

51 minutes ago, Maxim Fastovsky said:

 

I feel like the longer they go without announcing postponement the worst it will get as far as damage to the olympics, and more power those anti olympics groups will get. Just enough to see the replies on twitter to each of their posts about the fire flying to tokyo, and not just by noylmpicsla, but a lot of people calling for that.

 

but honestly, what if they announce right now the postponement of the Games and let's say by the end of May we run into a drastic slowdown of new positive cases and by the end of June we don't have almost any sick people in the world?

 

the damage in such case would be incomparable...

 

so, I understand their POV and their attempt to gain as much time as they can, even if this is a stressful situation (and of course I hope they have a plan B well underway, even if they keep saying they don't have it and that they still have to analyze the less favourable options)...

[AmericanHero40 243]

1 minute ago, phelps said:

 

but honestly, what if they announce right now the postponement of the Games and let's say by the end of May we run into a drastic slowdown of new positive cases and by the end of June we don't have almost any sick people in the world?

 

the damage in such case would be incomparable...

 

so, I understand their POV and their attempt to gain as much time as they can, even if this is a stressful situation (and of course I hope they have a plan B well underway, even if they keep saying they don't have it and that they still have to analyze the less favourable options)...

 

But you'll have athletes who can't even train, you will have athletes who will refuse to go. You're from italy, is any italian athlete still training? 

[phelps 8,404]

9 minutes ago, Maxim Fastovsky said:

 

But you'll have athletes who can't even train, you will have athletes who will refuse to go. You're from italy, is any italian athlete still training? 

 

some of them are, others don't...

 

it depends on sports (no outdoor activity is allowed anymore, so, cyclists for instance can't train) and sometimes on single location...some of our top swimmers are allowed to use (all alone, I mean, the small group under the same coach) the national training pools in Rome and Verona, but those who have to rely on public infrastructures in other cities have their facilities closed...

 

however, the official POV from almost every Italian athlete and sports federation is to postpone the Games to 2021 (at least)...

 

I think no one of them would eventually go to Tokyo fully trained and focused if the Games are held this July/August...

[Vektor 3,326]

37 minutes ago, phelps said:

 

that's what I meant when I wrote that we have to look deeper...

 

it doesn't change for the Tokyo Games, but do you really think that the Olympic brand would keep the same value if the Olympics are held in the original date and work perfect under any aspect rather than they are postponed/cancelled/experiencing something tragic?

 

no way...

 

the IOC would lose billions if something goes wrong (and having a conflict with some sports federations/nocs/sponsors means that something went wrong)...

 

Eh, the Olympics will be fine. It survived Munich, which was a LOT more tragic than what a potentially messy postponement would be. We shouldn't be so dramatic about this, just two years ago the "brand" was able to survive the NHL mess, and unless the NBA does something similar, this postponement will actually be less of an issue for the games than the NHL boycott. 

 

And there really isn't much to discuss about this. Everyone will most likely lose a lot more money if they host the games this year. It's obvious at this point that a postponement to next year is the best course of action for everyone involved (unless by some miracle the pandemic will be over in one or two weeks). 

[thepharoah 2,413]

Japan can host Olympics at its time but the main concern will be are athletes really ready for going to Olympics apart from those many athletes whom won't be able to qualify even to Olympics as so I think postponing it to October for example would be a nice idea