Are you just going to ignore that Hafnaoui won silver in the 1500 at short course worlds in 2021 in a historically fast time behind Wellbrock who set the current world record? His long course 1500 PB remained stagnant because he spent last year focused on his studies in order to gain NCAA eligibility. Hafnaoui also beat Finke multiple times at TYR Pro meets earlier in the year so he was hardly mediocre all season long but it seems that some of the European guys pop big times early in the season (trials meets?) while Hafnaoui, Finke and Short don't need to peak until Worlds because they have no competition in their events from their own country.
1) No, i don't ignore it. I explicitely wrote "never done anything in 800/1500 free long course". I also don't ignore that his short course time was still clearly slower than Wellbrock's, who has a long course PB of 14:34. Hafanoui's short course PB doesn't in any way translate to 14:31 long course.
2) If i remember correctly he never swam any in-season time that would final at worlds. When you only need to swim/run fast once a season, then it is much easier to not fail any tests. He can basically hide all-year long and just appear at worlds. Märtens and Wellbrock could have done the same (since they were already qualified), but they chose not to do it.
3) Also interesting that you say that Short (and Finke) didn't need to peak until worlds. So Short just expected to qualify in the 400 free at 80 % against guys like Winnington? Doesn't seem plausible to me. Wellbrock and Märtens had far less reason than Finke and Short to swim fast in-season, but they still did it.
4) Mellouli's doping history, the fact that Hafanoui always comes out of nowhere for worlds/olympics and the fact that he didn't do anything in the 800/1500 free (long course) before this week and then just went clearly faster than guys like Wellbrock or Paltrinieri ever did (after years of competing at the highest level) leads me to be 100 % convinced that he is a cheater. Hopefully one day things will be sorted out.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
I did a nations ranking (only olympic events) according to the FINA scoring system* (can't guarantee that everything is correct):
925
749
499
376
356
309
307
249
237
180
171
141
125
90
67
& 63
53
52
49
46
42
40
39
30
28
27
26
23
& 21
18
& 15
14
13
12
11
10
8
& & 7
6
5
4
& & & 3
& 2
1
* Scoring for individual events: 18-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
Scoring for relays: 36-32-30-28-26-24-22-20
Not very encouraging that only one european nation finished top 6. Quite surprising that the Netherlands was so close to Italy and that Japan finished ahead of France. Japan for sure has the worst points to medals ratio. More points than France, but 1/3 of the medals of Tunisia ...
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Definitely agree that it was surprising. That being said, I believe our breaststroke issue has been fixed. Angus split a 1:06 mid during both the prelims and finals, so if she can replicate it during the Olympics (+ Oleksiak gets back into peak form) then we could challenge Australia/United States/China for gold/silver/bronze.
Absolutely don't see that happening. USA and Australia would have to massively underperform. I think beating China will be enough of a task for Canada.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Sad to see that Germany is in a good position to qualify many relays. Both the german swimming and athletics federation are using the completely wrong strategy (if their goal is/would be to improve their athletes). They should only nominate relays if they are really competitive (if 4 athletes have the individual standard or if the average of the 4 fastest athletes is faster than the individual standard). It is even worse in athletics, where you often only have to be the 6th fastest athlete (100 m or 400 m) to qualify, while other athletes (for example in long jump) have to be among the absolute best in the world to qualify. This strategy "destroys the market". If athletes see that they can get their reward that easily if they focus on the "relay distances", they won't switch to other distances (100/400 m hurdles/200 m) where they might have the chance to rank higher internationally (but a smaller chance to qualify, since those distances don't have relays). You are basically preventing the "most efficient distribution of resources" by this nomination policy. GB is chosing the right strategy and it has been paying off (Men's 4 x 100/200 free relay, apparently now women's 4 x 200 free relay as well). I guess Germany can't do this because then it would become even more apparent what a horrible job the coaches are doing (Less relays = Less qualified athletes, no relays = no reason to have specific training camps for relays in warm countries during pre-season ...), so they can't/won't change the policy because they would hurt themselves.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Surprising bronze for Canada, i thought that China would take it. Kind of depressing for the other countries that Canada wins bronze without having a decent breast/free leg.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Also Track Cycling coming up in four days at the WC in Glasgow. Still doing fine. The hard week for me will be the bridge gap between the cycling WC and the athletics WC.
Not sure how many swimming fans care about track cycling, but swimming fans should care about the U23 european championships. Guys like Märtens or Wiffen will compete.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
The 400 IM was the third fastest of all time...it’s hardly considered off.
More than a second slower than her PB, the trend is obvious for anyone who is able to look at her objectively. Her 200 m races were both PBs while her 400 m races were both at least a second behind her PB.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Miracle year for France. Before this year they were complete trash in men's medley relay and now they found a fast fly and breast leg. Always amazing when nations just switch it on for their home olympics.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
McIntosh will learn from this competition. PBs in both 200 m races (200 fly, 200 free) and rather "off" in the two 400 m races (400 IM, 400 free). The 200 free seems like the most difficult race for her to win next year.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Wellbrock has to decide what he wants his legacy to be. I think he has to recognize that he has to decide between open water and the pool. Winning a gold in the pool would be much bigger for his legacy than winning another open water gold in my opinion. I wish he would decide to only compete in the 800/1500 free next year, but sadly that doesn't seem likely. Märtens should probably focus on 2 or at most 3 events. He should definitely either drop the 200 free or the 1500 free.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
The morrocan guy is probably the most obvious case since Mellouli. Improving your PB by 30 seconds is insane for an age group swimmer, but completely unbelievable for someone of his age. This guy has never before done anything in the 800/1500 free long course. He is mediocre at best all season long and then completely smashes it at worlds. He becomes the 2nd fastest guy ever out of nowhere (ahead of guys like Paltrinieri, Wellbrock, Romanchuk or Hackett) and makes Finke look like a turtle, who himself has always made everyone else look like turtles. I hope that the german coach finds an answer to this. Wellbrock and Märtens won't stand a chance against the moroccan guy, Finke and Short unless they go all out with their doping program as well. If they aren't willing to do that, they should just retire and save the tax payers their money.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
The fight for bronze in the women’s medley relay might turn out to be more exciting than expected. China is still the favorite, but maybe Canada or Sweden can challenge. GB not making the final is somewhat surprising, but in the end they don’t really have any outstanding legs. Both their breaststroke and their butterfly leg were pretty slow.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Actually somewhat deserved for not using Miressi in prelims. They still should have beaten Germany and Canada. In the end they wouldn’t have won a medal anyways.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Too many if........ ( Many italian swimmers had a lot of health problems in last months buy i didnt mentioned because It doesnt matter , It matters only how they swim in the pool)
For next year 1 Gold with 5 total medals would be a very , very good result, 1 Gold with 4 medal good , 3 medals with no Gold not good , 2 medals a complete disaster.
I think it was you who started with what-ifs ...
I agree that 5 medals would be very good next year, not sure if i agree that 2 medals would be a complete disaster. It might be a complete disaster based on what italian fans have gotten used to, but in my opinion Italy could win "only" 2 medals without underperforming. I don't know how much money Italy puts into swimming, so that might also have an influence on whether you consider 2 medals a disaster.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
We have also to remember that Italy Lost 5 or 6 finals for hundreths of second , Razzetti twice 9th in 200 Butterfly and Medley , Poggio in 100 breastroke, De Tullio in 200 freestyle, Franceschi Dsq when she swam a time good for final , also the women 4x100 less than 2 tenths from finals so we werent so lucky in terms of finals. Medals from Martinenghi , Ceccon , Quadarella and men relay are not lucky medals.
1) If Martinenghi swims 0.01 slower, he doesn't medal.
2) In the men's 4 x 100 free relay Italy might as well have finished 4th (behind GB and the US)
3) In men's 200 free the 10th place was a huge success for De Tullio. You shouldn't forget that multiple faster guys flopped or didn't even compete (Märtens, Pan, Marchand).
4) In men's 200 fly you shouldn't forget that Milak didn't compete, otherwise Razzetti would have been 0.5 seconds away from the final.
5) In men's 200 IM multiple faster guys flopped or didn't compete (Wang, Qin, Kos).
6) Not sure if Franceschi would have made the final if McKeown, Pickrem, Wood and McIntosh would have competed/not been disqualified as well.
7) Poggio was unlucky, not sure how close he would have been to the final if Peaty and Imoudu would have competed (not to mention the two russian guys and Shymanovich who were missing as well).
Before this year i would have expected Italy to definitely to better, but in my opinion 4 medals is pretty much a perfect result for them given where they are at right now. I would give the following italian athletes a chance to medal next year:
Maybe Miressi (100 free)
Maybe Galossi (400/800 free)
Men's 4 x 100 free
Maybe men's medley relay
Martinenghi (100 breast)
Ceccon (100 back, maybe 100 free)
Quadarella (1500 free)
Pilato (100 breast)
I think 2-6 medals are realistic in my opinion (Quadarella, Ceccon, Martinenghi + X).
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
The Netherlanda with 8 individual finals in olympic events, as much as Germany and one more than Italy. Italy could also get to 8 tomorrow if Franceschi makes the final in women's 400 IM. Very good result in terms of medals for Italy if we consider this.
Italy: 7 individual finals, 4 medals
Germany: 8 individual finals, 1 medal
Hungary: 7 individual finals, 1 medal
Japan: 10 individual finals, 1 medal
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Crazy level in women's 800 free. Gose finished 5th with a time that would have been enough for silver in 2022 and for bronze in 2021. Europe is getting killed here. I have hope that it will be different next year in a different time zone, but Europe definitely has a lot of catching up to do.
European gold medals in olympic events on the women's side: 1
European gold medals in olympic events on the men's side: 7
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Very surprsing result in women's 200 back. I was sure before the start of the competition that bronze would go to White or maybe Masse, but the chinese won a very surprising bronze. At least her time was decent, but normally there should be multiple american women who can go faster than 2:06.7.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
50.14, same as Milák last year. Not as fast as peak Dressel and peak Milák in Tokyo, but they might never repeat those times.
He went from being completely irrelevant to one of the fastest all time within one year. If you would have asked experts about the favorite in the 100 fly before the start of the year, they probably would have mentioned 50 other guys before they would have mentioned Grousset. With the olympics being in Paris he has to be the favorite. I wonder what he could have done in the 50 free. I think he would have won silver if he would have competed.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Sjöström is one of the most sweet and enjoyable swimmers out there, but to be fair Phelps competed at only 6 WC (and practically 5, since he did only 1 discipline in 2001 at 15), while this is Sarah's 8th WC. Doesn't take the fact, that she is one of the greatest female swimmers ever.
You could argue that longevity is also part of the game ...
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
925
749
499
376
356
309
307
249
237
180
171
141
125
90
67
& 
63
53
52
49
46
42
40
39
30
28
27
26
23
& 
21
18
& 
15
14
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12
11
10
8
& 
& 
7
6
5
4
& 
& 
& 
3
& 
2
1
Posted
1) No, i don't ignore it. I explicitely wrote "never done anything in 800/1500 free long course". I also don't ignore that his short course time was still clearly slower than Wellbrock's, who has a long course PB of 14:34. Hafanoui's short course PB doesn't in any way translate to 14:31 long course.
2) If i remember correctly he never swam any in-season time that would final at worlds. When you only need to swim/run fast once a season, then it is much easier to not fail any tests. He can basically hide all-year long and just appear at worlds. Märtens and Wellbrock could have done the same (since they were already qualified), but they chose not to do it.
3) Also interesting that you say that Short (and Finke) didn't need to peak until worlds. So Short just expected to qualify in the 400 free at 80 % against guys like Winnington? Doesn't seem plausible to me. Wellbrock and Märtens had far less reason than Finke and Short to swim fast in-season, but they still did it.
4) Mellouli's doping history, the fact that Hafanoui always comes out of nowhere for worlds/olympics and the fact that he didn't do anything in the 800/1500 free (long course) before this week and then just went clearly faster than guys like Wellbrock or Paltrinieri ever did (after years of competing at the highest level) leads me to be 100 % convinced that he is a cheater. Hopefully one day things will be sorted out.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
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