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Artistic Gymnastics PAGU American Championships 2021


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  • 3 weeks later...

Tomorrow is the final day for nations to send the nominative list of gymnasts who are going to compete at the Pan American Championships.

:MEX and :ARG published their women's teams, but I couldn't find anything else about the other nations. :USA will probably not send any women and :CAN was on the fence about sending a team, so I'm curious about what they ultimately decide.

It's too hard to predict which nations will take the men's quotas. :USA is the clear favorite for one of the quotas, but no one is sure if they will even send anyone to the Pan Ams. The second quota could be anyone's game. I'd say that each of these nations have a chance: :BRA, :CAN:CHI:MEX, :ARG, :GUA, :DOM, :VEN and :COL.

 

On the women's side, :BRA and :CAN are the clear favorites, with :ARG closely behind. :VEN might surprise, though. Not too sure about :MEX as of now.

Since Argentina and Mexico are the only nations which announced their women's teams, I can safely say that, at least on paper, Argentina has a stronger team than Mexico. I have a good idea of who is going to make the Brazilian and Canadian teams, and both teams will be 1-2 unless anything bad happens. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Argentina takes the bronze medal in the team competition, to be honest.

I hope we are given the nominative list of gymnasts before the event. I'll be able to comment a little bit more after I know who is going to participate.

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4 hours ago, thiago_simoes said:

Since Argentina and Mexico are the only nations which announced their women's teams, I can safely say that, at least on paper, Argentina has a stronger team than Mexico.

Yes, we have a pretty mediocre women's team right now, except for Moreno whose current form is unknown to me, as to tell if she will make the final in Tokyo.

 

4 hours ago, thiago_simoes said:

The second quota could be anyone's game. I'd say that each of these nations have a chance: :BRA, :CAN:CHI:MEX, :ARG, :GUA, :DOM, :VEN and :COL.

I think Mexico will be in contention with De Luna if he is in his best shape. The other gymnast are real bad.

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1 hour ago, mrv86 said:

Yes, we have a pretty mediocre women's team right now, except for Moreno whose current form is unknown to me, as to tell if she will make the final in Tokyo.

 

I think Mexico will be in contention with De Luna if he is in his best shape. The other gymnast are real bad.

According to Twitter, Mexico's team is composed of Paulina Campos, Natalia Escalera, Victoria Mata and Daniela Briceño, with Cinthia Ruiz as the alternate. I suppose Elsa Garcia will join the team if she's not seriously injured. Moreno will not even be part of the team, so Mexico is taking all their chances to see if they get an Olympic quota -- which is the wisest thing to do, in my opinion. I wonder what happened with Nicolle Castro. She could challenge for an Olympic quota, but she has been missing in action since mid-2019.

Argentina has a shot at qualifying with Magistrati, even though Rebeca Andrade from Brazil and Ava Stewart from Canada are the two gymnasts I believe will get the quota. Still, when it comes to the team competition, Argentina has a huuuge chance ahead of them with Dominici, Magistrati and Carraro. The head coach from Argentina is actually Brazilian and he had a pretty nasty fight with our federation, and it was one of the dumbest things that could have happened because he's an excellent coach and would be great for our junior gymnasts. 

On the men's side, I really can't make a sensible prediction. Everyone is so close and one fall could literally end someone's hope of qualifying.

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7 minutes ago, thiago_simoes said:

According to Twitter, Mexico's team is composed of Paulina Campos, Natalia Escalera, Victoria Mata and Daniela Briceño, with Cinthia Ruiz as the alternate. I suppose Elsa Garcia will join the team if she's not seriously injured. Moreno will not even be part of the team, so Mexico is taking all their chances to see if they get an Olympic quota -- which is the wisest thing to do, in my opinion. I wonder what happened with Nicolle Castro. She could challenge for an Olympic quota, but she has been missing in action since mid-2019.

Argentina has a shot at qualifying with Magistrati, even though Rebeca Andrade from Brazil and Ava Stewart from Canada are the two gymnasts I believe will get the quota. Still, when it comes to the team competition, Argentina has a huuuge chance ahead of them with Dominici, Magistrati and Carraro. The head coach from Argentina is actually Brazilian and he had a pretty nasty fight with our federation, and it was one of the dumbest things that could have happened because he's an excellent coach and would be great for our junior gymnasts. 

On the men's side, I really can't make a sensible prediction. Everyone is so close and one fall could literally end someone's hope of qualifying.

 

Yea Ava came out of nowhere it seems. She scored 55.000 in the all-around 2021 Canadian Elite virtual competition this past weekend. 

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Canada withdrew from Pan Ams

 

"Athletes and coaches did have the opportunity to appeal this decision, and GymCan went through the Sport Dispute Resolution Centre of Canada (SDRCC) arbitration process with these individuals to show transparency around the decision. The result of that appeal, which ruled in GymCan’s favour, was delivered to all parties on May 6th, 2021"

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1 hour ago, intoronto said:

Canada withdrew from Pan Ams

 

"Athletes and coaches did have the opportunity to appeal this decision, and GymCan went through the Sport Dispute Resolution Centre of Canada (SDRCC) arbitration process with these individuals to show transparency around the decision. The result of that appeal, which ruled in GymCan’s favour, was delivered to all parties on May 6th, 2021"

Disappointing news.

The logical explanation for this decision is that Stewart is too valuable for the team competition, so Canada is afraid to send her to Brazil because, well, covid.

No other Canadian gymnast eligible for a quota would have been able to qualify, anyway. Canada has a serious problem with the depth of the team right now, unfortunately. Of course, Black and Steward are incredible, and if Olsen and Moors return in time for the Olympics, the team will be quite strong, but currently the options are very limited.

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On 06/05/2021 at 23:04, thiago_simoes said:

Mexico's team is composed of Paulina Campos, Natalia Escalera, Victoria Mata and Daniela Briceño, with Cinthia Ruiz as the alternate. I suppose Elsa Garcia will join the team if she's not seriously injured. 

Yes that’s the squad. And García did get injured, after all she’s a veteran. But with Canadian team getting cut before time, I don’t think any of these women could end with a better note than a Brazilian or Argentinian gymnast.

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18 hours ago, mrv86 said:

Yes that’s the squad. And García did get injured, after all she’s a veteran. But with Canadian team getting cut before time, I don’t think any of these women could end with a better note than a Brazilian or Argentinian gymnast.

Yeah, I'm afraid so. I hope Elsa Garcia recovers in time. She could make things a lot more interesting. But she needed time to polish her skills and being injured seriously affects her chances of improving her execution.

I strongly believe one of the women's quotas is going to :BRA. Rebeca Andrade is very strong right now, and Jade Barbosa, Christal Bezerra and Lorrane Santos have enough potential to qualify even if something bad happens.

The other quota will probably either go to :ARG Magistrati or :VEN Lopez. I have no idea how Lopez is doing, so I bet Magistrati will get it. Even if Lopez is back to her old form, Magistrati could very well give her a run for her money. I hope we can add Elsa Garcia to this picture.

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Ok, this is turning into a monologue, but here we go.

The lists of gymnasts who will participate at the Pan American Championships have been released. No big surprises here, but with the nominative lists I can at least make a slightly better prediction.

Women's Olympic quotas:

:BRA 99,99% chance
:ARG 50% chance
:VEN 40% chance

:BRA Rebeca Andrade is the clear favorite here, but since everybody else from Brazil but Flávia Saraiva is also eligible for the quota, only a major upset would prevent Brazil from obtaining one of the quotas. I expect :ARG Magistrati to get the second quota, but maybe :VEN López might surprise and contend for the spot.


Now, for the medals in event finals, I expect :ARG Dominici and the aforementioned gymnasts to earn most, if not all, of the medals. The other ones with a chance of getting medals are :DOM Pena, :MEX Campos, :GUA Palacios and :CHI Santi. I was impressed with the :CRC girls at the 2019 Pan American Games. I sincerely hope they qualify to one of the finals. It's a shame :JAM will not participate. I know Danusia Francis has already qualified to the Olympics, but she could win a medal here. Bummer.


Men's Olympic quotas:
:USA 95% chance
:COL 40% chance
:CHI 40% chance
:BRA 10% chance

:USA Whittenburg should qualify easily, but Bock and Guimaraes could also surprise. Anyway, it's safe to assume that one of the quotas will go to the US. For the second quota, at least on paper, it should be a fierce battle between :CHI Sepulveda and :COL Calvo. :BRA Soares has an outside chance, but he would have to perform on the same level he performed at the 2020 American Cup. Basically, a perfect competition and no mistakes. :ARG Mayol would need major mistakes from the other gymnasts to have a chance. Not sure if any of the :MEX guys can surprise.

The event finals should be interesting with lots of gymnasts fighting for the medals. 

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