heywoodu

What the hell. At the ski cross in Idre Fjäll, the men finished all their 1/8 finals, the first women were ready for their quarter finals and suddenly 'Ladies competition - Cancelled'. Ok, one might think that's it for the day. But literally a minute or so later, the men's quarter finals were announced and started as if nothing happened

France

We're just gonna keep hoping Isabel somehow miraculously sneaks in the final and has some more luck there

Sweep potential Alpine skiing (women's downhill): Italy, apparently

That would be awesome, once every 8 years

Nah, not comparable, since Australia has dozens of athletes and separate biathlon and cross-country federations instead of Brazil's handful of adults (and a lot of teenagers) and one single federation for all snow sports

Shaun White makes the US team with a perfect 100 on the halfpipe http://olympics.nbcsports.com/2018/01/13/shaun-white-perfect-100-video-snowboarding-halfpipe/

Schedule (Local time) The American teams have been announced, sadly no Lolo Jones in it. Of course Elana Meyers Taylor and Jamie Greubel Poser as drivers, with Aja Evans and Lauren Gibbs as brakeswomen. http://olympics.nbcsports.com/2018/01/13/lolo-jones-olympic-bobsled-team/

Oops

Well this was kinda close

The Australian women missed today's final by a handful of seconds

They qualified as the host anyway, so didn't need to focus on the World Cup this season, so they have been getting in ten million runs in Pyeongchang, I guess

Unrealistic means not realistic Unlikely indeed, but if I'd have to name a decent number of events, 'gun to the head', for someone who loves seeing sweeps, this would be one I'd tell this person to keep an eye on. And yeah I agree, I prefer as many 3-nation podiums as possible

Oh and for my adopted nation, I'm going for 1 medal: some Steven Bradbury-like luck is gonna take Isabel Clark Ribeiro to Brazil's historic first medal

And Italy in women's GS (Brignone, Bassino, Goggia, Moelgg) is not entirely unrealistic, though of course not likely.

Ah yeah, it should say Germany/Norway/Poland. And not exactly, especially De Vries winning a medal would be a small surprise (since he's sort of the Janine Flock of speed skating) and Blokhuijsen isn't a guaranteed medal shot neither.

Which makes me think of another question: which events do you think are the most likely to see a one-country podium? To be clear, mentioning an event doesn't mean you actually expect this to happen, just that in your opinion it's a bigger possibility than other events (for example I don't think men's 5000m will be swept by the Netherlands, but it's still 100% more likely than the women's 500m ). Women's luge - Germany Men's ski jumping (normal and large hill) - Germany/Norway Nordic combined (both individual events) - Germany/Norway Cross-country (several events) - Norway This came to mind real quick

It's not North America neither, so women's sweep is far from unrealistic.

Anyway, it's always hard of course. To use Dutch speedskating as an example: there's medal chances in literally every event, some higher than others. But saying there is a chance in women's 500m (which of course there is) doesn't mean I actually think that's going to happen The Dutch team could realistically get a total of 10 medals, but also a total of 20 medals. Which is why coming up with a total is nearly impossible when looking at every event individually

Well like I said, no sweep is of course more likely than a sweep, but it absolutely would not be the biggest surprise ever if Germany does sweep the luge men's podium.

Germany winning 6 medals only in singles (in luge) isn't even impossible (though not highly likely, especially 3 in the men's is not the most expected outcome), I'd say a realistic maximum for Germany in terms of medals there is 9 (if everything works out perfect, but not entirely impossible). If I was a German luge fan, I'd be disappointed with anything less than 6 medals.

I wasn't talking about ice hockey

Looking at it per event doesn't really work well when trying to come up with a total number of medals, but alright, here we go: No speed skating Snowboarding: maybe 1 medal if someone pulls off an upset, not entirely unrealistic, but 0 medals is more likely Shorttrack: most likely option is 0 medals, 1 is still far from unlikely and 2 would be great Skeleton: depending on whether or not our NOC is being an asshole, an outsider Speed skating W 500m: 1 medal if everything works out perfect, most likely is 0 medals W 1000m: 1 medal should be possible, 0 is just as much possible and on a fantastic day 2 is not impossible neither W 1500m: should be 1 medal, possibly 2. 0 would be disappointing from a Dutch perspective W 3000m: 1 medal, 0 and 2 is possible as well W 5000m: not more than 1 medal W TP: 1 medal if nothing weird happens W mass start: 0 is the most likely, though 1 is almost just as much possible M 500m: 10-20 medal contenders, so anything from 0-3 is possible. Most realistic would be 1 M 1000m: 2 medals is quite realistic, so is 1. 3 is not impossible neither (albeit with a smaller chance of course), 0 is not very realistic M 1500m: at least 1 is rather likely, 2 is quite possible as well M 5000m: should definitely be at least 1 medal, 2 medals would be a small surprise M 10000m: should definitely be 1 medal, but 2 is pretty likely M TP: 1 medal if nothing weird happens M mass start: 0 is the most likely, though 1 is almost just as much possible Which could make for a total of around....15/16

Yeah, we have no idea who you've got your Slovak hopes on....

Well, just like GBR's domination in track cycling, Dutch domination in speed skating is not a good thing for anyone who's actually a fan of the sport instead of purely cheering for the flag behind someone's name. So I hope a repeat of Sochi won't happen and realistically, a repeat of that domination is simply not likely