My prediction of india medals at tokyo Olympics event wise is as under (considering the experience at rio am predicting on realistic approach):
Archery
0 medals
Deepika may be in tremendous form in world cups but there were no korean, chinese taipei and chinese archers at the world cups....also time after time we have seen her faltering at the crucial time in Olympics
Shooting
2 medals
India might have topped many world cups leading into olympics...but world cup at crotia should be eye opener as we have won 3 (olympic events) medals that too agaiin with out shooters from china, korea and japan.
2 medals am expecting from the events where saurabh choudhary is partcipating (individaul and mixed) as he is one shooter who was consistent and more composed.
Boxing
2 medals
Am expecting one from amit panghal and another from women boxers mary/lovlina/simranjeet
Weightlifting
1 medal
From Mirabhai....she hjust has to complete one valid lift in both snatch and clean & jerk....in olympics we never had this luxury...most likely she will win silver
Wrestling
2 medals
One from vinesha and another from either bajrang/ravi dahiya...... bajrang has to be at his best as his weight category is most competitive one
Badminton
1 medal
One from Sindhu...am giving it to her considering her big match play and no fans at olympics which would help her against yamaguchi.... most likely bronze as i don't see her overcoming Tai Tzu ying in semis
Hockey
0 medals
True to world ranking India mens team might finish at 4...it all depends on who they face in quarters
Athletics
0 medals
I would love to have neeraj winning medal but considering long lay off from injury and minimum competitive experience he will find it difficult and might finish at 4th position again narrowly missing medal in athletics at olympics
Rowing, Equestrian, Fencing, Sailing, Swimming, Table Tennis, Judo, Golf
0 medals.
Only we can expect good performance in TT mixed doubles...other wise its good experience of participating in olympics
All in all on realistic approach am going with 8 medals for India !! (combined total of rio and london)
On optimistic approach India can win following additional medals:
Shooting - 2more medals (one in mixed air rifle event and another from any shooter who can perform best on their day)
Wrestling - 1 more medal in womens category
Archery (mixed team event)/ Hockey / Athletics - 1 medal
All in all on optimistic approach am going with 12 medals for India !! (combined total of Rio, London, Bejing and Athens)