mpjmcevoy

Technically, all twelve squads that are eligible here could post superfast times and knock out everybody from 2023 bar Great Britain

This entire fortnight is centered on quotas - and the first week has been a humdinger, almost every boat came in. They were never likely to get the WP one, frankly it was a major success just to qualify for here, and to beat one team. Otherwise it's been an enormous success. They'll want to get the men's 4 x 100 over the line, most of the others already look safe, and frankly are more likely to miss out through British Swimming's own criteria

Right on cue, rumblings from Australia - seems Commonwealth Games Aus are determined to get the event on in one form or another, probably on a dispersed regional model (which oddly is the direction of travel for CWSport anyway) - so big ticket.moneyraising sports (basically ~Athletics, Sevens, Cricket, Swimming and possibly gymnastics) will be distributed among existing venues in Aussie and New Zealand cities, while Island nations will get a few nice locally popular events that aren't too taxing venue and accomodation wise- weightlifting in Samoa, etc. Perhaps even Rugby Leaugue 9's in Papua NG. If that was used as a springboard for a Global Centenary version of the same in 2030, and an African or South Asian regional model for 2034, that might create a way to contain spot costs to keep the event viable, provide hosting opportunities for smaller nations, and even leverage fundng into those smaller nations from big sponsors - creating a decent pop-op/modular 1000 seat venue in St Lucia, or a popup velodrome in Trinidad, might be a better use of resources than another 40,000 stadium in Australia, England or Canada

The other thing is if Tarling and Hayter took technically road race/TT quotas, might that free up room for a spare in the Drome. Could the same logic extend to the women's pursuit crew, eg Josie Knight?

I'll admit I'm intrigued on who the Road Race team will be - arguably their best shot at a RR medal on a punchy parcours will likely be on the MTB course. If so, it will be intriguing to consider what team GBR would bring - especially if other options like Ethan Hayter and Ethan Vernon are in the velodrome. Is Bigham an option for the second TT spot, assuming a Giro/tour double probably knackers G?

GBR have bagged 3 open water quotas, an Artistic swimming quota the men's synchro 10m and the outstanding men's 3m quota. Grace Reid is the last quota available barring unexpected miracles in the Water Polo. And they've bagged five world medals while getting those quotas. This seems like success beyond their wildest hopes

Or put it this way - most male boxers who qualify for the Olympics will only need two wins to medal (Most will not have a round of 32 fight, so win last 16, win QF = bronze) About 8 are there already in most classes. These guys are two wins from a medal right now. The poor saps at QF1 are possibly 7-8 consecutive wins away right now * * (ignoring SF and F in the QF1 which have no effect on qualification/medalling)

An average of 50 athletes per weight class, but unlikely to be even distributed, so there may be more than 64 in some classes - so a minimum of 4 wins required to bag a spot. That is brutal.

Looking increasingly nailed on for Istanbul for the 2027 European Games. no word yet on the 2026 European Championships or Commonwealth Games. https://gamesbids.com/eng/other-games-bids/eoc-set-to-award-2027-european-games-to-istanbul-madrid-encouraged-to-bid-for-future-edition/

There are at least three serious diving medal shots left, a good shout of another artistic medal (can hardly believe I'm typing that tbh!) - and that's with Jack having two mares when in good, good shape - something hopefully ironed out by Paris. By GBR historic standards, it has been a sensational first week - six diving medals and counting in particular is absolutely wild.

Agree, and it's a little sad because Eden is a very fine diver, but such are the consequences of being such a strong nation in the sport - and GBR are arguably no 2 only to China at the moment, and certainly in the conversation along with Mexico and Italy. I think Lois' very strong result (6th overall in the world is no laughing matter) probably seals the deal for her, barring injury. Ross Haslam may well face a similar dilemna of being a world class diver who may still end up as the loser in a threeway with Laugher and Goodfellow (or even one of two losers in a four way JL, DG and Houldon), as might Grace Reid, Matty Lee, Kyle Kothari etc It's a very nice problem to have - as the late great Matthew Perry would say "My wallet's too small for my fifties, and my diamond shoes are too tight..."

Jack is not having a wonderful meet. But Haslem has dived really well for being the GBR number three really

By my raw calculation, at least six of the semi final spots taken are defunct for Paris purposes - CHN, CHN, GER, GER, MEX, ITA - not including the two continental champs AUS and EGY who already have it booked. Does this mean, therefore that all semifinalists now have a quota for Paris bagged?

Sounds about right, though I think Goodfellow is a stronger bet for the 3m. I see it more a battle between Houldan and Laugher's Knee. Cheng is unlucky, but she's not, from my understanding, even on funding now, so with Toulson's strong finish today, that looks signed and sealed. I think Grace Reid has a decent shout - she's hugely talented, but she's inconsistent. If she has a good day, she could do a worldie. Indiviudal 10m for men is an absolute bunfight. It is utterly bizarre to me that GBR are now essentially the number two global nation in diving behind the peerless chinese. But then, GBR just won a silver in artistic swimming so, you know, everything's gone bonkers at this point.

Interesting to see the generations coming through - obviously Zoe is an absolutely generational talent, but Cat Ferguson already looks a world class prospect (reminds me a bit of the cross country athletics where GBR have Megan Keith and Innes Fitzgerald coming through back to back) On the 'drome, Men's pursuit had precisely the result they wanted and will be feeling a lot better about things. Seems to me to be getting clearer that the women's sprint are going to look to bring four if they can, with Marchant focussing on Kierin.

Bronze in the Women's European skeleton too. Marcus and Matt took silver and bronze in the post Euros WC meet

I get EU is simply short for Europe here, but as a politics nerd, I still find this funny.

My bad!! Tony Roberts. Climber

If he sneaks in, the mixed team event becomes very tasty

You'd think by now they'd have worked out the GBR 'peaking' strategy... From my own viewpoint, I think GBR are going to have a lot of 'on the edge'rs; it's hard to predict how well some will do in the white heat, or if injury nails a few. Seem to be an unusual number of 'lone stars' - Gary Roberts, Sky Brown, Penny Healy, who while genuine hopes have no back up in their sport if it doesn't hapen. If I were to guess, I can see Boxing being this years Rowing (the sport with an inquiry after the games), I see a Rowing return to strength, and perhaps a Canoe Slalom hidden gem if all the pieces fall. Not sure what the record is for medals in different sports for Ireland at one games, but I feel very hopeful whatever it is will be beaten - Gymnastics, boxing, rowing, sailing, swimming, golf and athletics all have genuines with at least punchers chances in rugby sevens and Equestrian and outside shots in Taekwondo, and track cycling

Of course, I forgot, no drafting.

I assume the model must be some sense like cycle road racing; hardcore fans like the long in depth discussions, a wider group dip in and out

I think an Indian Olympics is inevitable, but I don't think it'll be 2036. It seems obvious to me that Bach et all will want 'virgin territory' for legacy purposes, and deep pockets for financial ones. I also would not be surpised if he wants the Games to return to Russia a some sort of symbolic 'welcome back' though that seems a way off, thankfully. I'd say prepare for Games in India, Saudi and either Egypt or South Africa before 2060. 2036 could be Budapest.

Not actually the worst system ever invented, and the remaining two world rankings spots create an escape route for a major nation that screws up. Certainly should raise the profile of World Relays...

Lobbed in like a hand grenade, sir! Well thrown. I'm a bit surprised he's thinking Madison, though that might suggest a Tarling-Vernon team, with E Hayter concentrating on Omnium. Tarling is a huge engine room boost for GBR - especially if Ganna is doubling up. Would also suggest to me that Tarling won't do the RR. wonder if that might see Hayter doubling up too, as Viviani seems to be...