MHSN

didn't check the list of non-qualified nations, is Afghanistan still there ? they have two chances here, one of them more realistic at 58kg

Asian Qualifier Entry list https://worldtkd.simplycompete.com/eventDetails/11eebc5b-c0f8-558d-872c-06ec6d5493b5/5 it's possible to calculate the bracket , that will be based on the March ranking. from what I see our M+80 athlete has a clear path to the quota but W49kg looks tough, she will run into Asian Games Champion Su Po-ya in the semifinal. South Korea also decided to send someone at W57kg. it's the first time after so many years that they are forced to participate in the Asian OQT.

I expect them to release the list in a week or two. Asian Champs list should be published first though but with UWW there is no timeline for this, they publish the lists whenever they want for example African Champs and African/Oceania Qualifier will happen before the Euro Qualifiers but still no list which makes me wonder if there is a change yeah it makes sense to send two different teams, I expect most Asian top teams (Iran, Japan, Korea, India, China, KGZ, UZB, KAZ, MGL) to do the same.

it's hard to tell without having the brackets because even order of matches matter but I can make a short list of favorites for now , of course I will write in details after getting the draw in no order 60 67 77 87 97 130

Entry list for the European qualifier, the list is not final but will have only few changes https://arena.uww.org/weight-category/1eedaad3-a110-6ece-86c8-65c730caa373 the seeding is correct but most of better wrestlers are unseeded making it almost useless. no Armenia at all, for obvious reasons it seems participating here is necessary to compete in the last World Qualifier. but Armenia will be an exception and UWW will allow them to wrestle. Russia didn't register a freestyle team yet. and their 97kg Greco guy (and that's Sargsian and not the Oly Champs Evloev) is wrongly listed for 97kg FS. they will enter a freestyle team for sure. no Kurugliev for GRE at 86kg which means he still has paperwork to do.

well both Shahbakhsh and Gheshlaghi survived the first night to fight another day. I don't have much hopes (for obvious reasons, mostly the officiating) but let's see how far they can go in this tournament

ah, that sucks, being the first team below the qualification line only if they were lucky with one more result going in their favor in other matches.

It is not as far as I know per UWW's weird rules NOCs have to participate in continental Champs to be eligible for the continental qualifiers (with the same number of wrestlers) and there is an African Champs (for all age groups including seniors) listed in UWW website for few days later. I just checked their website and the event is still there. so unless they changed something which I doubt, African Games has nothing to do with the Olympics

because it's not. anything king Tommy touches is worse than anything he doesn't touch

that was disappointing to compete with the best of the World we need a good 3rd guy which we don't (and won't) have after Abedini's retirement. but it was/is a good tournament in term of Olympic Qualification. by my count only a silver/gold medal for Japan or Gold for China in the last WC can take the quota away from Iran. that's unlikely but far from impossible.

yeah that was a tense match, Iran was leading by 9 or 10 pts at some point but they found a way to fall behind and won it more dramatically they lost to Egypt in the previous World Cup though they are getting close to the finish line, but they also need Japan to lose and not win a medal.

I can also name Suriano, Spencer Lee, Daton Fix etc. USA has 4 or 5 wrestlers better than this guy at 57kg. but he won the trials last year and per their rules he had the right to wrestle here, the other could challenge him but didn't want to, they probably thought that's useless to tire themselves, let him winning the quota. we will beat him at the trials. US usually underestimates the Pan-Am qualifiers. I mean they should had their trials before this event but they want their trials to be something special, calling it "Final X" in all 6 Olympic weights. it will be hard for anybody who wins the trials to cut weight again in 3 weeks and go to the last chance qualifier in Turkey. btw most of wrestling nations won't send the same guy twice. I mean if any of our guys fail to qualify in Asia, his chance is gone and the next guy in line will take his place.

If they send the same guys, yes I agree but they have some better wrestlers. I don't know how these guys managed to win their trials last year. they will have their Olympic trials in April and whoever wins the trials in these 2 weights has to win the quota himself in May. for example guys like Diakomihalis or Arujau are well capable of winning the quota.

looks like today is the day for Mexico, they had two huge surprise wins already Austin Gomez beat Nick Lee of USA 22-12 despite being down by something like 6 or 8 pts at some point and at 86kg, Valencia pinned the Cuban guy while he was down big points

European Qualification tournament entry list https://worldtkd.simplycompete.com/eventDetails/11eec0f0-5a3f-0ed9-8152-0644ce79712b/5

so, I got what I asked for. lots of surprises and Cuba will not have a full Greco team in Paris after all, of course Gregorich is good and has a chance to qualify from the last World Qualifier (not a big chance but still realistic) I hope I can see the match later, Woods had hard time against the Honduras wrestler in QF, this is a big big result for him specially after US team lost two SFs where they were supposed to be the favorite.

no, absolutely no chance in Greco-Roman

finally we had a big surprise Alejandro Sancho got pinned by Almanza and won a real quota by a Chilean wrestler (not a Cuban mercenary) no stream for this session for me, I'm just following the results ! no surprise at 60kg, and qualified

we had no upset in the first session. even not a single real surprise! but there were two close/important matches and both of them didn't went the way I was expecting. CUB beating USA at 60kg and Julfalakyan losing to K. Bey. there were supposed to be 50/50 matches, so no real surprise here too. hope to see some in the afternoon session

no Olympics for Arsen Julfalakyan, at least not here (and I highly doubt he can qualify from the last qualifier) he had his chances twice, he had Kemal Bey lifted on to the air for a 4pts throw but for some reasons didn't throw him. I think some injury happened to his leg.

yes. more than a couple of years. Cuba already qualified the weight at the 2023 Worlds Oscar Pino won the bronze and qualified the weight. Lopez still plans to go to Paris. but the last thing I heard from him, his preparation didn't go as planned and he had to skip the Pan-Am Games I don't think they send Lopez right away anyway. he has to beat Pino (who is very good too) to earn his place in Paris.

and Greco , but keep in mind Greco is less predictable because it's not only about technique, you can win matches by just being very strong physically 60kg I think Rodriguez (VEN) will benefit a lot from being the top seed. he has an easy road to the quota. he will face MEX and probably COL. won't be a huge surprise if he loses to any of these guys. I'm not familiar with the Mexican wrestler but he is probably somehow good. the QF match between CUB and Hafizov determines the quota. Hafizov who is 36 beat the Cuban at the Pan-Am Games final but he is getting older, Cubans are always dangerous ... for a change this time I don't pick the Cuban, so 67kg on paper it looks easy for Sancho (USA) but he beat the Chilean guy narrowly last weekend, so there is a chance for an upset maybe ? in bottom half I expect ECU and COL battling for the quota in the SF, Montano is a bit old, he used to be very good. he beat Hora 2-1 last weekend, kind of interesting that it's possible to have exactly the same semifinals this weekend ! I think the same guys win again 77kg, this is the most interesting weight, most of the favorites wrestled last weekend and we had some surprising results in top half I think Pena (CUB) and Joilson (BRA) will decide the quota, the Brazilan surprised Pena and pinned him few days ago, that can happen again but I think Pena learned his lesson. at the bottom half we have the biggest name of all, the great Arsen Julfalakyan who just decided to wrestle for Argentina ! at the age of 36 he wrestled in a tournament few weeks ago and did OK (not great though) he will face Kamal Bey, the best American Greco talent in the QF and most probably either VEN or COL in the SF. any of those 4 guys can win the quota. it will be interesting to know that Cuero (COL) beat Kamal Bey last weekend. still I think that was just an accident. Bey is a very good wrestler. he is explosive, can score against anybody but can also lose big points against anybody. my picks 87kg I doubt anybody beats Daniel Gregorich in the top half. still Woods (USA) might be a challenge for him in bottom half I see COL and VEN in the SF wrestling for the quota but Vargas (MEX) won the quota last time (didn't go to the Olympics though) I think maybe he has a chance too. I say 97kg, with Cuba already qualified it's a great chance for the rest Kevin Mejia is 99% locked for the quota. I can't see him losing unless some accidents happen for the bottom half, I think USA and VEN decide the quota. Vera (USA) won 5-3 last weekend, so I say 130kg, different format since we have only 6 wrestlers I think it's very clear that only 4 guys are wrestling for 2 quotas, all 4 of them will advance from their groups to meet in the SF. Acosta is very boring and annoying but he can gets the job done by 1-1 or 2-1. Schultz can throw anybody. I think these 2 guys will qualify but Perez (VEN) and Soghomyan (BRA) can do something. but still most probably

I assumed that still even a 50% Dehsi should qualify easily

taking a look at freestyle draw first 57kg, balanced draw, surprisingly no cuban wrestler in top half four guys has a realistic chance COL, VEN, CAN and MEX. I think RBY from MEX and Tigreros will wrestle for the quota. there are 2 or 3 NCAA wrestlers in bottom half but I think it will be PUR vs USA in the final. Richards won't be happy to face Cruz in the SF. but still my picks 65kg, still balanced draw Nick Lee is the weakest member of US freestyle team, still good enough for the quota. I think only Gomez (MEX) might be able to threaten him. just maybe the QF match between ARG and CUB will most probably decide the quota. I would have picked Destribats but he was terrible few days ago and almost lost to Bahamian wrestler (American though) I think Valdes has the upper hand since he didn't wrestle last weekend. BAH guy is here, another NCAA wrestler, might have a very small chance. my picks 74kg This weight is wide open with no clear favorite in both sides. but there are some NCAA wrestlers representing other countries. I'm not familiar with some of them, they might be very good. in a normal day I would pick Garzon without hesitation but he was terrible last weekend. he lost to a guy who later lost to this DOM guy. so on paper DOM should be the favorite, still when it comes to the Olympics, Cubans wrestle differently. also can't write off this guy from URU, I believe he is American too at the bottom I think the winner comes from the last quarter, CAN, PUR or VEN. my picks 86kg, I can see 6 guys with a chance and 4 of them is in the bottom half I think top half will be decided between COL and PUR. I think Ramos has more chance because the Colombian wrestled in Pan-Am Champs last weekend at the bottom half, Moore (CAN) has an easy route to the SF but there are 3 clear favorites in the 4th quarter. it's really hard to pick one between these 3 and Moore also has a good chance because he hast to beat only one of them. Valencia (MEX) is the brother of American Zahid Valencia but since he is new into this weight, my picks are 97kg top half is much much easier, I think it will be between VEN and DOM, hard to compare them, it looks 50/50 the Cuban guy is the favorite but he wrestled last weekend and had a good match vs Kyle Snyder. which might give a chance to Randhawa (CAN) and maybe Lacey (CRC). my picks 125kg I barely even know anybody from the top half. it's PUR's quota to lose, I just saw he beat the HON wrestler only 2-1 last weekend, so there is a chance for HON's quota. maybe at least Amar Dheshi is a head and shoulder better but he didn't wrestle much recently (injury maybe?). I'm not really aware of his current shape. still he has to win 3 not-so-easy matches to qualify. American guy of Jamaica, the old guy from VEN and the Cuban (the worst of the Cuban team). my picks I know I gave too much credit to Cuban wrestlers. I mostly rate them high because of their past. their freestyle program is somehow dead. I don't think they are going to win 4 quotas with 5 wrestlers.

If you mean the draw (which I doubt) the answer is no but of course the competition will be streamed on UWW website (like all of their official competitions), which is not free anymore. no "final" or repechage this time, only the direct elimination competition with semifinals (Olympic Qualification matches) later at the evening session