MedalChampion

Day 5 Update
 
Right now, at the end of Day 5, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
 5 gold medals (-6 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 9 gold medals (-3 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 8 gold medals (+5 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
 China - 35 gold medals
 USA - 33 gold medals
 France - 15 gold medals

Day 5 Update
 
Right now, at the end of Day 5, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
 5 gold medals (-6 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 9 gold medals (-3 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 8 gold medals (+5 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
 China - 35 gold medals
 USA - 33 gold medals
 France - 15 gold medals

I think it is the same as with many developing poor countries with big population: the access to sport facilities, nutrition, corruption (benefits to some elites) and poor organization managment has make a toll on the success. It was until the late 1990s and early 2000s that things starte to change, first at the Central American and Caribbean Games and then Pan American Games, where Guatemala started winning more medals. things are changing and hopefully the trend will continue.
 
To be out of the list of countries benefited by Universality quotas, qualifying directly about 70% to 80% of total athletes is the changes that  is seeing.
 
I will add that Football has been the most popular sport in the country for decades, and the budget, facilities and promotion of it dominates over individual sports. So, that situation also influence in what sports kids and teenagers practice. 
 

17 medals by Day 5 is a record for .

I feel you being politely under-stating France?  You have a big chance of 20+!

Day 4 Update
 
Right now, at the end of Day 4, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
 4 gold medals (-5 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 6 gold medals (-3 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (+3 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
 China - 35 gold medals
 USA - 34 gold medals
 France - 13 gold medals
 
Of course, all of this can change very quickly, I will update this table regularly.

Day 4 Update
 
Right now, at the end of Day 4, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
 4 gold medals (-5 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 6 gold medals (-3 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (+3 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
 China - 35 gold medals
 USA - 34 gold medals
 France - 13 gold medals
 
Of course, all of this can change very quickly, I will update this table regularly.

Right now, at the end of Day 3, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
 3 gold medals (-4 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (-1 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (+4 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
 China - 37 gold medals
 USA - 35 gold medals
 France - 14 gold medals
 
Of course, all of this can change very quickly, I will update this table regularly.

Day 4 Update
 
Right now, at the end of Day 4, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
 4 gold medals (-5 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 6 gold medals (-3 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (+3 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
 China - 35 gold medals
 USA - 34 gold medals
 France - 13 gold medals
 
Of course, all of this can change very quickly, I will update this table regularly.

Day 4 Update
 
Right now, at the end of Day 4, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
 4 gold medals (-5 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 6 gold medals (-3 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (+3 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
 China - 35 gold medals
 USA - 34 gold medals
 France - 13 gold medals
 
Of course, all of this can change very quickly, I will update this table regularly.

Right now, at the end of Day 3, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
 3 gold medals (-4 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (-1 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (+4 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
 China - 37 gold medals
 USA - 35 gold medals
 France - 14 gold medals
 
Of course, all of this can change very quickly, I will update this table regularly.

Right now, at the end of Day 3, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
 3 gold medals (-4 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (-1 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (+4 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
 China - 37 gold medals
 USA - 35 gold medals
 France - 14 gold medals
 
Of course, all of this can change very quickly, I will update this table regularly.

Right now, at the end of Day 3, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
 3 gold medals (-4 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (-1 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 5 gold medals (+4 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
 
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
 China - 37 gold medals
 USA - 35 gold medals
 France - 14 gold medals
 
Of course, all of this can change very quickly, I will update this table regularly.

I think we are a bit ahead, despite some big disappointments (gymnastics, skateboarding, W rugby sevens..). 
But two things :
- Getting Gold medals is and will always be a challenge for us. We still don't have many big favorites for the gain of titles (less than 10 I would say). 
- The first week is very good for us (thanks to fencing and judo), and the second will be more difficult. 
 
I think Japan will be third at the end (they seem to overperform?) . Then it will be the announced fight between , , ,  and . 
 

First or second no. Best case scenario for   is third, which will be a huge achievement, because it will mean 20+ gold medals.

That's some first post on a forum !
 
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