I believe the Academy has finally thrown in the towel and started handing out awards to the commerically successful films the last few years? Times do change, I still remember some of the old days when extremely random movies floated around the palmares because "critics loved them"
This of course means some of these awards are extremely predictable but we're talking about an industry where everyone has a giant ego one way or another. If Tom Cruise was born 25 years later maybe even he would have won it!