How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026？

[phelps 8,767]

1 hour ago, BMOlympics said:

Well, it has been tested at the Dutch Olympic trials, and nearly all surprising qualifiers wore this new suit, although it's not public knowledge what skaters did or didn't wear the new suit.

still, I'm more interested in what Jutta's going to wear under the suit 

[Andre Han 185]

China's medal prospects
 
Short Track Speed Skating: This is the event with the deepest emotional ties to China's winter sports, as China's first Olympic gold medal in winter sports came from this discipline. Unsurprisingly, people have high expectations for it in this Winter Olympics. Medal prospects are mainly focused on men's individual events and the two relay events. However, considering the strong strength of William Dandjinou, I think the probability of winning gold in men's individual events is very low. Instead, the main gold medal hopes lie in the men's relay and mixed relay.
Medals: 1-3.

My guess: 1 gold;

Optimistic: 2 golds
 
Freestyle Skiing: The performance of this event is crucial to China's success in this Winter Olympics. Eileen Gu remains our super star and is highly competitive in slopestyle and halfpipe. As for the big air, if I remember correctly, she hasn't competed in this event since the Beijing Winter Olympics, so it's hard for me to make a clear judgment on her performance in this individual event.
China has the potential to compete for medals or even gold in all three medal events of freestyle skiing aerials. However, given the unpredictability of aerials, the results could be either disastrous or brilliant. Xu Mengtao will compete in her fifth Winter Olympics.
Medals: 3-6.

My guess: 3 golds;

Optimistic: 4 golds
 
Speed Skating: Similar to the situation in Beijing, the medal hopes still lie with Gao Tingyu and Ning Zhongyan. However, Stolz has shown extremely strong dominance during the Milan Olympic cycle, so I don't think there will be any gold medals in this event. Gao Tingyu has performed excellently in the previous two Winter Olympics, and I still believe he can win a medal in the 500m. Ning Zhongyan also has the potential to win medals in the 1000m and 1500m.
Medals: 1-3.

My guess: 0 gold;

Optimistic: 0 gold
 
Snowboard: Like in Beijing, Su Yiming remains the star of China's snowboarding. He has maintained a very good competitive form this season, with great chances especially in the big air event, where he will aim to defend his title. He also has the potential to win a medal in slopestyle.
Medals: 1-2.

My guess: 1 gold;

Optimistic: 1 gold
 
Skeleton: Men's events and mixed team events are opportunities to compete for medals, with Yin Zheng being the key athlete for medal contention.
Medals: 1-2.

My guess: 0 gold;

Optimistic: 1 gold
 
Curling: China will send both men's and women's teams to this event. Both teams have the ability to compete with high-level strong teams. I predict that either the men's or women's team will reach the top four.
Medals: 0-1.

My guess: 0 golds;

Optimistic: 0 golds
 
Ski Jumping: This is still a less developed event for China, but Zeng Ping has made significant progress this season, entering the top 8 in many high-level competitions. There is a chance to compete for a medal, but it will be very difficult to achieve. If it really happens, I think it will be quite incredible.
Medals: 0-1
 
I think other events have no chance of winning medals.
 
summary,

Optimistic: 8 golds and 17 medals; 
My guess: 5 golds and 14 medals; 
Worst-case scenario: 3 golds and 11 medals.

Edited January 29 by Andre Han

[Josh 13,630]

1 hour ago, phelps said:

still, I'm more interested in what Jutta's going to wear under the suit 

You and me both 

[Josh 13,630]

1 hour ago, clemsonbeav said:

I was just doing my prediction on the other thread, and then I calculated... I had 21 Gold, 8 Silver, 15 Bronze.  Probably a little too hopeful.   Oops!  (And I didn't even think I was being too optimistic as I was filling it out...guess so...)

I’ll go bungee jumping naked if that happens

[copravolley 657]

2 hours ago, phelps said:

still, I'm more interested in what Jutta's going to wear under the suit 

You'd have to ask her simpatic boyfriend from the USA about that, who is often seen at competitions with her participation

Edited January 29 by copravolley

[Josh 13,630]

1 hour ago, copravolley said:

You'd have to ask her simpatic boyfriend from the USA about that, who is often seen at competitions with her participation

[clemsonbeav 701]

On 1/28/2026 at 4:00 PM, Bear Hollow said:

 

 

Luge: 1 Medal - Likely from the women (singles) or team event.   Men's doubles is competitive as well.  Going to come down to whomever best masters the track...  Germans showing some weakness here lately but more than making up for it in bobsled.

 

 

 

 

 

 

One thing working in our favor with Luge is that Women's Doubles is just one sled per NOC, so I like our chances there.  We'll be 3rd or 4th in the Relay (one of my favorite events)...if everyone slides cleanly, we'll probably be 4th, behind , , and ...but anything can happen in the relay.  (I think in my official predictions I had us 3rd.  Wishful thinking, I suppose.)

Edited January 30 by clemsonbeav

[Topicmaster1010 6,614]

On 1/26/2026 at 7:31 PM, orangeman said:

Am I alone in feeling like there are very little predictions by publications this time around? Usually there are several online and in print predictions by now, but I can't find anything outside this site, besides a couple of figure skating and hockey ones. Not even Gracenote? 

Found a couple of prediction websites.

 

This link was posted on reddit a couple of days ago by the user thevorminatheria.

 

The Italian sports website OA Sport also came up with their own predictions. They have a link in the article to the latest magazine issue which details all of the medalists.

[copravolley 657]

2 hours ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

Found a couple of prediction websites.

 

This link was posted on reddit a couple of days ago by the user thevorminatheria.

 

The Italian sports website OA Sport also came up with their own predictions. They have a link in the article to the latest magazine issue which details all of the medalists.

The first prediction is OK for us, but the second is unfortunately disastrous... With 28 medals, only 4 gold at home? And as the same number of gold medals as the UK and Slovenia, who have a combined 6-7 medals overall? It's a disaster. Anything less than 6 gold medals and a place in the top 10 of the medal standings will be a disaster for us... Personally, I'd rather even win 22-23 medals with 6-7 of which are gold, than 28 medals with 4 gold... Yes, every medal counts, but in sport, it's all about winning; the rest are just consolation prizes. 

Edited January 30 by copravolley

[Faramir 520]

You have to distinguish the gold-silver-bronze predictions (more so if based on personal feelings likes OAsport does) from those who come up with an expected medal tally based on chances in each event. The latter Is more serious when evaluating the potential medals of countries.