How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026？ Road to Milano Cortina 2026

[Josh 11,734]

56 minutes ago, Book said:

Someone has to tally USA up, I'll make it as short as I can.
 

• Bobsled: 1-3. Women's monobob team has the former gold medalist (Lindsey Humphries), the most recent world champion (Kaysha Love), and a medalist in both (Elana Meyers Taylor). Two medals in the event is very possible with a two woman as a chance. 1 gold in monobob
• Short Track Speed Skating: 0-1. There's 8 events the US has qualified for, it's a chaotic sport, one odd medal seems possible but not likely. 0 likely
• Skeleton: 0-1. Mystique Ro won 2 medals at the most recent world's albeit on home ice in Lake Placid. She has 2 chances to show up in individual and mixed relay and could win a medal. Bronze to Ro. 1
• Snowboard: 0-4. This is a rough year for US snowboarding. Although we invented the sport, like skateboarding, the Japanese have mastered it. Chole Kim sits as the sole star for the team and if she's recovered from her recent injury should win halfpipe, but it's a looming question. There's chances in men's slope and big air from Ollie Martin or maybe Red Gerrard. The 4th medal would come from Men's snowboard cross where there's 4 top athletes. Maybe a bit harsh, we could go 5 or 6 if things align, but we could also reasonably get nothing. 3 seems doable, 1 gold to Kim, 1 bronze to Martin, 1 cross medal in men's or mixed team. 3

Very nice analysis, a few things here.

 

Bobsleigh: In Love's last 7 races, she hasn't finished better than 8th, unlikely she’ll medal. Also just a small correction, it's Kailie, you must've got her confused with someone else 

Short Track Speed Skating: I'd say there's a really good chance you win at least 2-3 medals. Stoddard has been on fire this season, she's won 8 medals in 12 events, Santos Griswold has a decent chance in each of the women's distances, mainly the 500m. Women's relay won medals at two of the WCs, and the mixed relay has a chance if other top nations (Korea, Netherlands, Canada, China) crash in the semifinals, don't think they match up raw power wise. 

Snowboarding: Choi, Shimizu, and possibly Kudo (more inconsistent) will push Kim if she is indeed at her best, but it's hard to bet against someone like her. Mastro is an outside chance in halfpipe, competition might be too much for her. Men's snowboard cross has no chance , and mixed team with Gaskill/Baumgartener or Vedder is probably an outside chance. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Josh

[Book 73]

37 minutes ago, Josh said:

Bobsleigh: In Love's last 7 races, she hasn't finished better than 8th, unlikely she’ll medal. Also just a small correction, it's Kailie, you must've got her confused with someone else 

And I had her wikipedia page open when I wrote that. Good catch, pretty clear which Lindsey I was thinking about at the moment.

Interesting on the short track, I wasn't looking that deeply at is but good to know there's some medal chances. Might balance out a potential snowboarding collapse. 

[Bear Hollow 6]

OK, so here is my first post ever on this site.  Have been a lurker for a few years.  Huge fan of the Olympics dating back to Barcelona.  A statistics junky.  Drives my family crazy.  I really like seeing the perspectives of the various nationalities on here.  However, make no mistake I root for the Red White and Blue.  I keep my own medal total predictions for each four-year cycle and update them as the various world cup competitions, injuries, etc. occur.  Here's my USA predictions:

 

Alpine Skiing:  4 Medals - Vonn's return is huge.  Macuga's injury hurt in the speed events but Vonn makes that up.  Johnson is an outside threat.  Shiffrin certainly a favorite in Slalom.  The new combined event will be interesting.  Moltzan and Shiffrin are threats in GS.  Men not likely to medal but an outside shot in the speed events.  

 

Biathlon:  1 Medal - Campbell Wright has a shot (pun intended).  Would be USA first in biathlon.  Women won't be close.  Mixed relay will be competitive (top 8).  Probably optimistic here with Wright but would be neat for first medal in this event.

 

Bobsled: 2 Medals - This one is tough for me.  Humphries and Meyer-Taylor are the veterans and very competitive and threat to medal in both women's events but likely their last hurah as they are getting older.  Love is a wildcard.  All comes down to the actual track on the sliding events.  Very unlikely the men even threaten a medal.  Delu Duca can be competitive in the two-man but won't beat the German men.  Can anyone stop the German sweeps in the men's events?  

 

Cross Country Skiing: 2 Medals - Assuming two from Diggins.  Could be more.  Individual sprint is classical so that dampens the threat a bit.  Would love to see the US women medal in the relay but prolly not.  Schumaker is making some noise for the men and an outside shot to medal.  

 

Curling: 0 Medals - Had Shuster qualified I think he would have competed for a medal but good time to pass the torch.  Team Casper needs to get some good experience here for the  future.  Women not likely to medal.  Mixed doubles would be the best chance but not a favorite per se.  

 

Figure Skating: 4 Medals - Manlin, Chock/Bates, Team and one of the women.  Pretty straightforward here.  

 

Freestyle Skiing: 8 Medals - All about the men in Halfpipe, BA and Slopestyle, need a double medal in one of those...women in those events would be a long shot but possible.  If only Gu competed foe USA.   Need 4 medals there.  Womens Moguls hopefully good for 2 considering there are two events.   Men have an outside shot.  Dual moguls event helps here.  Pick-up two more in aerials (likely men and team...maybe the women's).

 

Ice Hockey: 2 Medals - I say women for Silver but are the actual favorites for gold this time just never know with the CAN match-up.  Men with NHL should be fun.  We should medal but chemistry will be key for the all the men's teams.  

 

Luge: 1 Medal - Likely from the women (singles) or team event.   Men's doubles is competitive as well.  Going to come down to whomever best masters the track...  Germans showing some weakness here lately but more than making up for it in bobsled.

 

Nordic Combined: 0 Medals - Men are getting better but not close to medal contention.  If the women were in there would be one here.  

 

Short Track: 3 Medals - Banking on Stoddard and Santos.  Those two also make the women's relay and mixed teams very competitive.  As everyone says this is so unpredictable.  Men are becoming more competitive.  Kim and Heo could find themselves in a final.  If you're there. anything can happen.

 

Skeleton: 1 Medal - Prolly my least confident guess.  Ro was looking strong but fell off this World Cup season.  Decent shot in the mixed team with Florian.  Men won't medal by themselves.  

 

Ski Jumping: 0 Medals - Men are getting competitive especially a couple of younger fellas.  My dark horse pick for a US medal in 2030 is here.  Women are not there with this current group.

 

Ski-Mo: 0 Medals - Only qualified with the continental quota.  I really don't know too much but seems like a European sport.  Guess that balances with Flag Football showing up in 28'  

 

Snowboarding: 3 Medals - This is tricky and could be a zero for the first time.  Banking on Kim being ok, but she might not be Gold worthy.  Barbieri is young and competitive on the men's side of the half pipe.  A couple men should threaten in SS and BA.  Women and men in cross will compete.  Non are favorites to medal but this is also unpredictable.  

 

Speed Skating: 6 Medals - Counting on Stolz for 4 including Mass Start which he did well in during the fall.  500m is going to be real tough with the young Pole.   Dawson can compete in top 5 at 5,000 and 10,000.  Men's Pursuit should medal.  On the women's side Bowe in her farewell has been consistent top 5 at 1,000 and 1500 i don't see a medal for her but maybe two top-5's.  Jackson will compete in the 500m.  Women's pursuit could challenge for Bronze.  Mangenello medaled in Mass Start multiple times this fall.  Looking at Stolz for 4, Team Pursuit for 1 and need one other to medal.  

 

So this puts us at 37 and not being overly aggressive/optimistic.  Previous best was Vancouver in 2010 with 37 and home at Salt Lake with 34.  I see us right in that mix, a nice round number would be 35.  Best golds was SLC with 10.  Could really threaten to top that.  Regardless, I am hoping this is the best for Team USA outside of North America.  

 

Winter OG are by far my favorite.  As a fan, much easier to follow most all events.  

 

Feel free to give me feedback on the predictions.  My other overall thoughts are:

 

1. Germany will have an off games.....outside of mens Bobsled.

2. Netherlands will be off from previous speed skating highs

3. As always Italy will surprise.  I see a lot of pessimism form their fans on here but I have confidence in the home field.

4. Cannot put a finger on where CAN will land.  Part of me sees them with a strong games but I can also see them disappointing.  

 

 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Bear Hollow

[CCB 611]

"2. Netherlands will be off from previous speed skating highs"

 

For sure, only in some women's events we can win gold medals, but I'm afraid won't even make the top 8 this time. But I like to be surprised by the short trackers, so who knows, maybe it will still work out well.

[Book 73]

11 minutes ago, Bear Hollow said:

So this puts us at 37 and not being overly aggressive/optimistic. 

Interesting to see another take and one 7 medals higher then what I was saying but in agreement on most events. I have no vision into speed skating long or short so I wouldn't be surprised if I discounted that. On one hand it seems crazy to have 12 more medals then in 2022 but you just need a couple athletes in high medal count sports to have a good games and that's easily achievable. 

I have a sense that because of a lot of other things happening here there's very low engagement with the games right now, but general patriotism and olympic patriotism are two different things and if we get 37 medals a couple weeks from now I'll be riding that high till LA.  

[clemsonbeav 239]

32 minutes ago, Book said:

Interesting to see another take and one 7 medals higher then what I was saying but in agreement on most events. I have no vision into speed skating long or short so I wouldn't be surprised if I discounted that. On one hand it seems crazy to have 12 more medals then in 2022 but you just need a couple athletes in high medal count sports to have a good games and that's easily achievable. 

I have a sense that because of a lot of other things happening here there's very low engagement with the games right now, but general patriotism and olympic patriotism are two different things and if we get 37 medals a couple weeks from now I'll be riding that high till LA.  

Glad to see you and @Bear Hollow with your predictions.  I haven't made my predictions yet, but I agree with most everything y'all have said.  I don't know freestyle skiing or snowboard as well...but the other sports seem pretty locked in.

 

I was hoping for better results from Campbell Wright in Biathlon during the WC season...if not '26, then hopefully in '30!

 

My biggest question mark is how the Women's figure skating podium will be.  Alysa won gold in the GP Final simply because she skated cleanly...but if any of the Japanese skaters skate cleanly, they'll come out ahead.

Edited 1 hour ago by clemsonbeav