British Swimming Championships 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[RussB 102]

11 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

I agree, but my point (which, again, is me rambling more than anything else) is that Tom has a better shot than Jacob, imo. Not as good as Matt obviously but a shot. 

 

Who knows, maybe Tom didn't want the spot either, like Duncan? Lots of moving parts that we don't know about.

 

 

Assuming that Guliano hasn't dropped the 100m - in which case his replacement would be some unknown called Caeleb Dressel! - then he would be the only US swimmer impacted by the 100m/4x200m conflict. The rest of their 4x2 swimmers aren't sprinters really.

Guliano is who I had in mind; on inspection Alexy is not doing the individual 200m.

no idea about Tom’s desires but from a pure outsider’s perspective it would look like a team call. Tom v Jacob to me is a toss up, I’d lean Tom but ultimately I don’t see either of them making the final in the 100m so we have to do what we can to ensure all the men’s relays make the finals, without sacrificing genuine individual medal chances 

[mpjmcevoy 306]

1 hour ago, RussB said:

Guliano is who I had in mind; on inspection Alexy is not doing the individual 200m.

no idea about Tom’s desires but from a pure outsider’s perspective it would look like a team call. Tom v Jacob to me is a toss up, I’d lean Tom but ultimately I don’t see either of them making the final in the 100m so we have to do what we can to ensure all the men’s relays make the finals, without sacrificing genuine individual medal chances 

Realistically, who are the genuine individual medal chances?

[RussB 102]

9 minutes ago, mpjmcevoy said:

Realistically, who are the genuine individual medal chances?

In total medal chances(regardless of relays), not predictions, but actual chances:

proud (50 free)

richards (100 and 200 free)

scott (200 free and 200 IM)

peaty (100 breast)

Morgan (100 back) (not sure about 200)

Litchfield (400 IM)

Colbert (400 IM)

Evans (100 breast)

and at a real stretch given the level of competition but Wood (200 IM).

I realise I’ve not included Luke for the 200 back.. I was bullish at his return at the end of 2023 but momentum seemed to drop off in 2024. I think the 200m back is quite open for the minor medals so maybe they both have a “chance” but it’s unlikely.

Edited July 13 by RussB

[mpjmcevoy 306]

I see Amelie Blockridge won the Euro Jr 5km open water today, backing up her 1500, 800 Jr double a couple of weeks ago...

[RussB 102]

1 minute ago, mpjmcevoy said:

I see Amelie Blockridge won the Euro Jr 5km open water today, backing up her 1500, 800 Jr double a couple of weeks ago...

Yeah although “only” winning by 20 secs this year after demolishing the field by a minute last year 🤣

she swam another 16m 10 in the 1500 which seems to have been her mini final plateau lately, but swam 8m 30 in the 800 which I believe is another age record..

[Cinnamon Bun 494]

19 minutes ago, RussB said:

In total medal chances(regardless of relays), not predictions, but actual chances:

proud (50 free)

richards (100 and 200 free)

scott (200 free and 200 IM)

peaty (100 breast)

Morgan (100 back) (not sure about 200)

Litchfield (400 IM)

Colbert (400 IM)

Evans (100 breast)

and at a real stretch given the level of competition but Wood (200 IM).

I realise I’ve not included Luke for the 200 back.. I was bullish at his return at the end of 2023 but momentum seemed to drop off in 2024. I think the 200m back is quite open for the minor medals so maybe they both have a “chance” but it’s unlikely.

I agree with everyone on that list, the only ones I'd add are Stephens and MacInness (200m Fly), Pardoe (10km) and at a real stretch Shanahan (200m Back). I can't remember a games (2012 - present) where the vast majority of events across individuals and relays have at least 4-5+ serious medal contenders, this will be a games where we either come away with a lot more than expected or a lot less. 

[RussB 102]

Just now, Cinnamon Bun said:

I agree with everyone on that list, the only ones I'd add are Stephens and MacInness (200m Fly), Pardoe (10km) and at a real stretch Shanahan (200m Back). I can't remember a games (2012 - present) where the vast majority of events across individuals and relays have at least 4-5+ serious medal contenders, this will be a games where we either come away with a lot more than expected or a lot less. 

Ah fair I wasn’t including open water (but Hector has a chance)

 

I still think Honey finishes as top

Brit in the 200m but to crack the top 3 looks impossible.

 

the 200m fly on the women’s side is very open, so it’s not impossible one or both get in the mix (with fingers crossed!)

[Cinnamon Bun 494]

4 minutes ago, RussB said:

Ah fair I wasn’t including open water (but Hector has a chance)

 

I still think Honey finishes as top

Brit in the 200m but to crack the top 3 looks impossible.

 

the 200m fly on the women’s side is very open, so it’s not impossible one or both get in the mix (with fingers crossed!)

200m back is a massive stretch given that a low 2:06 will realistically be needed at the very least to clinch a medal (which would be a 1 second PB for Shanahan), but given that a lot of the top athletes in this event have multiple swims across the meet I wouldn't be too surprised if a 2:06.6 or a 2:06.7 is just enough to sneak a medal. 

[Epic Failure 209]

You've both missed Tom Dean in the 200 IM.

[RussB 102]

6 hours ago, Epic Failure said:

You've both missed Tom Dean in the 200 IM.

He definitely is in the bracket of “a chance”, I did consider it but couldn’t get there as anything more than an outside shot. Same reasoning I excluded our 200m back girls.

With Marchand in the race (I just can’t see him out the medals) and Duncan (who I don’t see Deano getting past) it obviously very much limits a medal chance. Throw in Wang, Casas and Foster all of whom have gone 1m 55 (at least). I think Tom enters 7th fastest on a 1m 56.1 in past 12 months, so it’ll be a big ask to make the podium.

 

Maybe there is an argument that due to his lighter schedule than others, when the final occurs on 2nd August he will be slightly more rested.