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How Many Athletes will Your Nation Qualify for the Summer Olympic Games 2020?


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Just now, Maxim Fastovsky said:

 

Probably more like 600, with the softball and baseball (if they qualify) teams at 25 each, no reason to think that there will be less

I expect at least 1,000 and will settle for no less (and yes I know this impossible). 

“Sport has the power to change the world. It has the power to inspire. Sport can create hope where once there was only despair” - Nelson Mandela

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:ISV if we get more than 2, I’ll be happy. Our best chances are Athletics, Swimming, Sailing. Maybe we’ll get lucky with a wild card for archery. Golf and Basketball have no chance. I don’t really know of any other sports active on the island besides bobsleigh, and we really fucked that up the last time around :mad:.

 

:ISV At worse: 2

:ISV At best: 5

:ISV most likely: 3

“Sport has the power to change the world. It has the power to inspire. Sport can create hope where once there was only despair” - Nelson Mandela

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On 19/09/2019 at 13:09, Gianlu33 said:

Let's do a review after 1 year...

 

Let's start :d
 

 Hi My friend, add my count and a nuemeric review (opt, realistic, pessimistic)

 

 

icon_oly01.png Archery: Some troubles with the team... We can still qualify both team  (6-4-2)

icon_oly03.png Artistic Swimming: We improve in the last 10 years, like in Rio the objective in archive the full quota.(10)

icon_oly02.png Athletics: In London and in Rio we qualified 38 athletes, in Doha around 65. 40 will be a good number. (60-50-40)

icon_oly04.png Badminton: No anyone, maybe Caponio with a lot of luck.(1-0-0)

icon_oly29.png Baseball: Netherlands is still the favourite, it will be close  NO ONE, PASS FOR ISR (0)

icon_oly05.png Basketball: With some luck our men's team can back at the games.(12-0-0)

icon_oly26.png Beach Volleyball: Probabily 3 pairs (2 M +1 W) (6-6-6)

icon_oly06.png Boxing: From 4 to 6 quotas I THINK A LITTLE MORE, 2-3 W AND 4-5 - (8-7-6)

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Slalom: Full quota set (4-3-3)

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Sprint: Around 6 athletes... I hope UHM VERY HARD (6-5-4)

icon_oly08.png Cycling - BMX: With a lot of luck, only Fantoni.(1-0-0)

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Mountain Bike: 3 men and 1 woman. (4-4-4)

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Road: Italy will easy qualify the max contigent (5-5-5)

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Track: Both pursuit team and the omnium. (5-5-5)

icon_oly03.png Diving: Let's hope that Cagnotto will back... Around 5-6 (6-5-4)

icon_oly09.png Equestrian: Italy qualified the eventing team, and for the jumping will be a 50-50 (6-6-3)

icon_oly10.png Fencing: 24 athletes, why not? :d (24-22-20)

icon_oly15.png Field Hockey: No anyone (0-0-0)

icon_oly11.png Football: What flop...(0)

icon_oly13.png Golf: 2 M + 1 W MAYBE SECOND WOMAN (4-3-3)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Artistic: Around 6 athletes HOPE BOTH MEN AND WOMEN (9-5-2)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Full quotas :) (7-7-7)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Trampoline: Our biggest athlete is a 37 years old and he will watch the Games on his sofa (0)

icon_oly14.png Handball: Italian handball? What is? (0)

icon_oly16.png Judo: From 3 to 9 quotas 3? NOT SO TERRIBLE! (8-7-6)

icon_oly29.png Karate: Very strict qualification process, from 3 to 5. AND MORE FROM QUALIFYNG TOURNAMENT (6-5-4)

icon_oly17.png Modern Pentathlon: We have a great women's team and a nice men's team.. 3/4 quotas I guess (4-3-2)


icon_oly18.png Rowing: From 23 to 29 quotas (29-27-25)


icon_oly19.png Rugby Sevens: What? :p 0

icon_oly20.png Sailing: Like in Rio, 13 quotas.(14-13-11)

icon_oly21.png Shooting: From 8 to 12 (12-10-8)

icon_oly29.png Skateboarding: Sure at last 2, maybe one women too in the street event. (3-2-2)

icon_oly29.png Softball: Full quota 15

icon_oly29.png Sport Climbing: 2 quotas (3-2-1)

icon_oly29.png Surfing: 1 or 0 (1-1-0)

icon_oly03.png Swimming: From 30 to 40 (40-36-34)

icon_oly22.png Table Tennis: 1 or 0 (1-0-0)

icon_oly23.png Taekwondo: Dell'Aquila is the biggest chance, maybe Rotolo and Alessio. (2-1-1)

icon_oly24.png Tennis: 6 or 4 (6-5-4)

icon_oly25.png Triathlon: It's hard to say.. maybe 4 or 5. (5-5-4)

icon_oly26.png Volleyball: Both teams (24)

icon_oly03.png Water Polo: Both teams (22)

icon_oly27.png Weightlifting: From 2 to 3 (3-2-1)

icon_oly28.png Wrestling: Chamizo is the only one that is sure to archive the qualification. Maybe other 2 (4-3-2)

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Qualified: 119

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Optimistic Total Athletes: 406(difference betweet 2018: 0) 390


2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Realistic Total Athletes: 321 (dif. +26) 360

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 254 (dif. +13) 310

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

 

PREDICTION  FOR JAPAN  ::JPN

 

 

 

 

 

icon_oly01.png Archery:              6 6 6

icon_oly03.png Artistic Swimming: 8 8 8

icon_oly02.png Athletics: 136 56 29           

icon_oly04.png Badminton: 16 14 2

icon_oly29.png Baseball: 24 24 24 

icon_oly05.png Basketball:  32 32 32  

icon_oly26.png Beach Volleyball: 8 6 4

icon_oly06.png Boxing:     13 8 6 

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Slalom:4 4 4 

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Sprint:18 10 7       

 

 

icon_oly08.png  - Road:   9 4 4 

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Track: 15 5  0

 

icon_oly08.png Cycling - BMX:          6 4 4 

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Mountain Bike:    6 2 2 


icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Trampoline:     4 3 2  

icon_oly14.png Handball:           28 28 28    

icon_oly16.png Judo:       14 14 14 

icon_oly29.png Karate  :   8 8 8 

icon_oly17.png Modern Pentathlon: 4 3 2   

 icon_oly18.png Rowing:      48 6 2 

icon_oly19.png Rugby Sevens :  24 24 24 

icon_oly20.png Sailing:   15 15 15 

icon_oly21.png Shooting : 30 15 12

icon_oly29.png Skateboarding:    12 8 4 

  icon_oly29.png Softball  15 15 15 
icon_oly29.png Sport Climbing:  4 4 4

icon_oly29.png Surfing: 4 4 2

icon_oly03.png Swimming: 60 50 24

icon_oly22.png Table Tennis : 6 6 6

icon_oly23.png Taekwondo:  8 5 4

icon_oly24.png Tennis:  12 6 0 

icon_oly25.png Triathlon:  6 4 4 

icon_oly26.png Volleyball: 24 24 24

icon_oly03.png Water Polo:  22 22 22 

icon_oly27.png Weightlifting: 8 6 6

icon_oly28.png Wrestling:  18 12 8 


2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Total Sports: 44

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Optimistic Total Athletes: 809


2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Realistic Total Athletes: 583

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 474

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  • 1 month later...
  • 1 year later...

My predictions for Greece :GRE 
 

icon_oly01.png Archery: 0-1 (Evangelia Psarra is probably our only chance, it would be her 6th Olympic appearance but she is old now so I don't know)

icon_oly03.png Artistic Swimming: 2-8 (We will definitely qualify in the duet. Team is 50/50)

icon_oly02.png Athletics: 23-40 (We currently have 5 and there are many more who I'm 99% sure will make it off ranking, some others if they improve this year can make it and also hoping for a women's 4x400. We have many good young athletes that might not be ready for Tokyo but in Paris I expect a big team)

icon_oly04.png Badminton: 0

icon_oly29.png Baseball: 0 of course (but our former national team player Nick Markakis was an MLB All-star in 2018 :d, and Moustakas in 2015/17/19)

icon_oly05.png Basketball: 0-12 (our men's team should make it but they always choke and have bad luck with injuries in Olympic years)

icon_oly26.png Beach Volleyball: 0-2 (Arvaniti/Karagkouni have some chances to qualify. Would be Arvaniti's 4th Olympics. They missed 2016 because of her pregnancy and got lucky with the postponement of Tokyo because she had an ACL injury and would've missed 2020)

icon_oly06.png Boxing: 0-3

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Slalom: 0-1 (small chance for Tsakmakis to make his fourth Olympics)

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Sprint: 0-1 (I don't know much about this sport but I know we have a young guy Dimopoulos who is decent but probably too young/inexperienced for Tokyo)

icon_oly08.png Cycling - BMX: 0

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Mountain Bike: 1

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Road: 1

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Track: 1

icon_oly03.png Diving: 1-2

icon_oly09.png Equestrian: 0

icon_oly10.png Fencing: 1-2

icon_oly15.png Field Hockey: 0

icon_oly11.png Football: 0

icon_oly13.png Golf: 0-1 (there is some Greek guy from South Africa who is trying to qualify for Greece but I know nothing about golf and don't know if he is any good)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Artistic: 1-2 (assuming Petrounias makes it)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0-1 (chance for Eleni Kelaiditi. Our group surely won't qualify which would be the first time since 1996. They aren't good anymore)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0

icon_oly14.png Handball: 0

icon_oly16.png Judo: 3-4

icon_oly29.png Karate: 0-2 (Eleni Chatziliadou was world champion in 2018 so she should make it, but she was injured and her ranking fell so I'm not sure what her current status is)

icon_oly17.png Modern Pentathlon: 0

icon_oly18.png Rowing: 4-10 (we already qualified women's pair and will almost certainly make it in women's single sculls and men's single sculls. Also a very good chance for lightweight women's double sculls. Outside chances for women's double sculls, men's four and men's lightweight double sculls but a lot of these athletes are too young and probably will make it in 2024)

icon_oly19.png Rugby Sevens: 0

icon_oly20.png Sailing: 8-10 (we already have 8)

icon_oly21.png Shooting: 3

icon_oly29.png Skateboarding: 0

icon_oly29.png Softball: 0

icon_oly29.png Sport Climbing: 0? (I know absolutely nothing about this sport)

icon_oly29.png Surfing: 0? (I also don't have a clue)

icon_oly03.png Swimming: 10-18 (we already have 7 and I think we'll get several more. Outside chance for men's 4x200 freestyle which would give us more athletes that probably can't make it individually)

icon_oly22.png Table Tennis: 1-2

icon_oly23.png Taekwondo: 0-4 (Telikostoglou should make it as he won silver at 2019 World Championships. Tzeli was a medalist at the 2018 Youth Olympics and should have a better chance to make it now that she got an extra year. We have a few others with outside chances)

icon_oly24.png Tennis: 2

icon_oly25.png Triathlon: 0? (no idea)

icon_oly26.png Volleyball: 0

icon_oly03.png Water Polo: 13 (unless South Africa and/or Russia don't go and our women make it too)

icon_oly27.png Weightlifting: 2

icon_oly28.png Wrestling: 1-2


2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Total Sports: 28

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Optimistic Total Athletes: 154

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Realistic Total Athletes: 117

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 78

 

(My math might be off. Every time I added them up I got different numbers :lol:

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  • 3 months later...

My updated predictions for Greece :GRE 
 

icon_oly01.png Archery: 0-1 (Evangelia Psarra is probably our only chance, it would be her 6th Olympic appearance but she is old now so I don't know)

icon_oly03.png Artistic Swimming: 2-8 (We will definitely qualify in the duet. Team is 50/50)

icon_oly02.png Athletics: 23-35 (We currently have 6 and there are many more who I'm 99% sure will make it off ranking, some others if they improve this year can make it and also hoping for a women's 4x400. We have many good young athletes that might not be ready for Tokyo but in Paris I expect a big team)

icon_oly04.png Badminton: 0

icon_oly29.png Baseball: 0 of course (but our former national team player Nick Markakis was an MLB All-star in 2018 :d, and Moustakas in 2015/17/19)

icon_oly05.png Basketball: 0-12 (our men's team should make it but they always choke and have bad luck with injuries in Olympic years)

icon_oly26.png Beach Volleyball: 0-2 (Arvaniti/Karagkouni have some chances to qualify. Would be Arvaniti's 4th Olympics. They missed 2016 because of her pregnancy and got lucky with the postponement of Tokyo because she had an ACL injury and would've missed 2020)

icon_oly06.png Boxing: 0-3

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Slalom: 0-1 (small chance for Tsakmakis to make his fourth Olympics)

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Sprint: 0-1 (I don't know much about this sport but I know we have a young guy Dimopoulos who is decent but probably too young/inexperienced for Tokyo)

icon_oly08.png Cycling - BMX: 0

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Mountain Bike: 0-1 (Our team ranking fell a lot in recent months and we are no longer in the qualification zone)

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Road: 1

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Track: 1

icon_oly03.png Diving: 1-2

icon_oly09.png Equestrian: 0

icon_oly10.png Fencing: 1

icon_oly15.png Field Hockey: 0

icon_oly11.png Football: 0

icon_oly13.png Golf: 0-1 (there is some Greek guy from South Africa who is trying to qualify for Greece but I know nothing about golf and don't know if he is any good)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Artistic: 1 (assuming Petrounias makes it)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0-1 (chance for Eleni Kelaiditi. Our group surely won't qualify which would be the first time since 1996. They aren't good anymore)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0

icon_oly14.png Handball: 0

icon_oly16.png Judo: 2-4

icon_oly29.png Karate: 0-2 (Eleni Chatziliadou was world champion in 2018 so she should make it, but she was injured and her ranking fell so I'm not sure what her current status is)

icon_oly17.png Modern Pentathlon: 0

icon_oly18.png Rowing: 4-10 (we already qualified women's pair and men's single sculls and will almost certainly make it in women's single sculls. Also a decent chance for lightweight women's double sculls. Outside chances for one or two more boats, but a lot of these athletes are too young and probably will make it in 2024 instead)

icon_oly19.png Rugby Sevens: 0

icon_oly20.png Sailing: 8

icon_oly21.png Shooting: 3

icon_oly29.png Skateboarding: 0

icon_oly29.png Softball: 0

icon_oly29.png Sport Climbing: 0? (I know absolutely nothing about this sport)

icon_oly29.png Surfing: 0? (I also don't have a clue)

icon_oly03.png Swimming: 10-18 (we already have 7 and I think we'll get several more. Outside chance for men's 4x200 freestyle which would give us more athletes that probably can't make it individually)

icon_oly22.png Table Tennis: 1

icon_oly23.png Taekwondo: 0-4 (Telikostoglou should make it as he won silver at 2019 World Championships. Tzeli was a medalist at the 2018 Youth Olympics and should have a better chance to make it now that she got an extra year. We have a few others with outside chances)

icon_oly24.png Tennis: 2

icon_oly25.png Triathlon: 0? (no idea)

icon_oly26.png Volleyball: 0

icon_oly03.png Water Polo: 12 (unless South Africa and/or Russia don't go and our women make it too)

icon_oly27.png Weightlifting: 1-2

icon_oly28.png Wrestling: 1-2


2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Total Sports: 28

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Optimistic Total Athletes: 140

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Realistic Total Athletes: 103

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 74

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  • 3 weeks later...

My predictions for Turkey  :TUR
 

I think we will definitely exceed 2016 (103 athletes) and we might exceed 2012 which is our best (114 athletes)

 

 

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Total Sports: 19

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Optimistic Total Athletes: 128

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Realistic Total Athletes: 106

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 95

 

 

 

 

icon_oly01.png Archery: 2-4 (depending on team qualifications in which I think we have a decent chance)

icon_oly03.png Artistic Swimming: 0

icon_oly02.png Athletics: 20-25 

 

icon_oly04.png Badminton: 2-3

icon_oly29.png Baseball: 

icon_oly05.png Basketball: 0-12 (I think our men team's chance to qualify is around 30%)

icon_oly26.png Beach Volleyball: 0


icon_oly06.png Boxing: 4-7

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Slalom: 0

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Sprint: 0

icon_oly08.png Cycling - BMX: 0

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Mountain Bike: 0

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Road: 2

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Track: 0

icon_oly03.png Diving: 0

icon_oly09.png Equestrian: 0

icon_oly10.png Fencing: 1

icon_oly15.png Field Hockey: 0

icon_oly11.png Football: 0

icon_oly13.png Golf: 0

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Artistic: 5

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0

icon_oly14.png Handball: 0

icon_oly16.png Judo: 4-6

icon_oly29.png Karate: 5-7


icon_oly17.png Modern Pentathlon: 1-2

icon_oly18.png Rowing: 1-3

icon_oly19.png Rugby Sevens: 0

icon_oly20.png Sailing: 8

icon_oly21.png Shooting: 4-5

icon_oly29.png Skateboarding: 0

icon_oly29.png Softball: 0

icon_oly29.png Sport Climbing: 0

icon_oly29.png Surfing: 0

icon_oly03.png Swimming: 8-10

icon_oly22.png Table Tennis: 0-1

icon_oly23.png Taekwondo: 5

icon_oly24.png Tennis: 0-1

icon_oly25.png Triathlon: 0

icon_oly26.png Volleyball: 12

icon_oly03.png Water Polo: 0

icon_oly27.png Weightlifting: 2-3

icon_oly28.png Wrestling: 9

 

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25 minutes ago, merlinsbeard said:

icon_oly10.png Fencing: 1-2


icon_oly20.png Sailing: 8-10 
 

I'm pretty sure all fencing and sailing qualifications are already done.

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2 minutes ago, Makedonas said:

I'm pretty sure all fencing and sailing qualifications are already done.

Thanks, made the correction

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    • Would you believe the NCAA Indoor season has already started?      
    • Some changes that I've noticed:   3x3 Basketball: With the expanded 12 team field, one extra team per gender qualifies through world rankings, one extra team qualifies through the universality driven tournament and there's now an Olympic Qualifier series to award the final quotas.   Beach Volleyball: Continental qualifiers have have priority over the World championship and World Rankings quotas and there's now Olympic Qualifier Series quotas.   Canoe Sprint: World ranking system now in place and will be used instead of awarding world championship quotas. Road Cycling: 2 nations ranking quotas per gender moved to universality.   Track Cycling: Sprint and Keirin ranking list is now combined and will award 14 quotas per gender. Previously it was 7+7. Team pursuit down to 8 quotas from 10. 2 of the quotas have been moved to madison (one additional team) and 6 to the omnium.   Fencing: Can get a Continental quota of you finished in the top 24 of the rankings. It was previously top 16.    Hockey: 2 pro league quotas replace two qualification tournament quotas.   Judo: 5 less universality places and 4 more Continental places. For men, there's two more spots for Asia, one less for Oceania and 1 more for the Americas. For the women, there's one more spot for Europe, one less for Oceania and two more for Asia.   Modern Pentathlon: Less quotas awarded through world rankings as a result of quota cuts.   Open Water Swimming: Introduction of world ranking qualifier.   Sailing: In general, seems to be more quotas awarded at the last chance regatta and less quotas at the World Championships   Shooting: One less quota handed out at each World Championship and the return on World Cup qualifiers.   Swimming: Olympic qualification and consideration times renamed to A and B standard. B standard is now 1% slower than the A standard compared to 0.5% in 2024. Stroke 50s have their own direct qualification events and have minimum time standards instead of A and B standards. Qualification times have been nuked again. B standard selection process has also changed.   Volleyball: New revised format. Continental championships first, then world championships followed by world rankings. In 2024, it was 3 qualification tournaments and then world rankings. Only 3 countries per gender will qualify by world rankings now compared to 5 in 2024
    • For Italy, the match against Japan and likely the final match against Estonia will be a safe/relegation game, but I'm think that whether the match against Estonia will be decisive on anything, if we have 0 points after 4 matches. We're currently the worst team here – we have 0 points and are taking significantly fewer shots than our opponents in each match. Japan and Estonia are looking better for now and unfortunately, without significant improvement play starting tomorrow, we'll likely be relegated to the fourth division. With the absence of Russia and Belarus, this will be a shame, even for the weaker 2006/2007 age generation. Especially, since we are playing this tournament at home. For anyone could have competed with a good shape, except perhaps Hungary, who are currently the best team in the tournament.
    • They shouldn't promise additional spots to countries that qualify 3 athletes in each distance, because then taking those spots away isn't fair. For example, in Italy, Previtali won the 500m QO for country but he would likely have to stay at home because the staff probably would have chosen Casinelli for the relay (Casinelli won't be competing individually at all). I don't know what the situation is in Canada with the fifth-place skater? Will this person only compete in the relay, or will he also be a reserve there? 
    • That's too bad. Athletes who finish in the top 32 (or 36 for the 1590m) should be the priority over the 5th athlete from a relay country.   So Croatia loses their 2nd women's quota, Hong Kong loses their only women's quota and Poland loses their 3rd women's quota.   This means that Great Britain, Slovakia and Ukraine should fill up the rest of the 1500m field since they are the highest placed reserves that doesn't require an additional quota.    
    • Philip Rivers' possible return to NFL while being a semifinalist for the Hall of Fame certainly wasn't on my bingo card. But well. So far he's only on the practice squad
    • Thursday December 11th, 2025 - Round-Robin Day 4 Schedule (GMT +1)   12:30   Austria vs Ukraine 16:00   Norway vs Kazakhstan 19:30   Slovenia vs France
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