[PREDICTION CONTESTS] Discussion Thread

[clemsonbeav 412]

2026 Olympic Podium Prediction Game

Results after 115/116 events

 

W Freeski Halfpipe

 

Actual Results

Gold	Silver	Bronze

 

What We Predicted

 

% of Users who had...

Correct Gold Medal Prediction: 67%

Correct Silver Medal Prediction: 24%
Correct Bronze Medal Prediction: 18%

Correct Podium Makeup: 3%

 

Overall Podium Score: 54%

(This score represents how accurately we as a group did at guessing NOCs + Placement.)

 

 

Leaderboard

 

Explanation of Points:

Correct Medalists = Number of medalists guessed correctly

Correct Podium Points = 2 points for a correct medallist, 1 point if you guessed that a medalist would be on the podium, 1 point bonus if you got the whole podium correct

[clemsonbeav 412]

2026 Olympic Podium Prediction Game

Results after 116/116 events

 

M Ice Hockey

 

Actual Results

Gold	Silver	Bronze

 

What We Predicted

 

% of Users who had...

Correct Gold Medal Prediction: 18%

Correct Silver Medal Prediction: 18%
Correct Bronze Medal Prediction: 30%

Correct Podium Makeup: 6%

 

Overall Podium Score: 48%

(This score represents how accurately we as a group did at guessing NOCs + Placement.)

 

 

Leaderboard

(coming in next post)

 

Explanation of Points:

Correct Medalists = Number of medalists guessed correctly

Correct Podium Points = 2 points for a correct medallist, 1 point if you guessed that a medalist would be on the podium, 1 point bonus if you got the whole podium correct

[clemsonbeav 412]

FINAL RESULTS

 

MOST CORRECT PODIUMS

GOLD - rafQ - 13

SILVER - orangeman - 12

BRONZE - mikto78 - 11

 

MOST CORRECT PODIUM PLACEMENTS

GOLD - valtellina - 129

GOLD - Emersons - 129

SILVER - orangeman - 127

 

MOST CORRECT PODIUM POINTS

GOLD - valtellina - 373

SILVER - rafQ - 372

BRONZE - Morten Jensen - 366

 

Full Leaderboard By Category

 

 

Note: A few of you have a couple of extra points added into your podium points score due to an unfound logic flaw.  Sorry about that!

 

 

 

DISCIPLINE-RELATED GROUP STATS COMING IN NEXT POST

[clemsonbeav 412]

MOST AND LEAST PREDICTABLE SPORTS

 

Below is a graph that shows you how we did as a group in the individual sports.  The lower the number, the lower the predictability.  The higher the number, the higher the predictability.

 

As for scoring, a score of 66% means on average, we guessed two medallists correctly, but the third medallist was not guessed at all.

A score of 50% means that we got one medallist completely correct, and then got the placement wrong for one other medallist, and the third medallist was unknown.  Or, it could mean we guessed the three podium finishers, just in the wrong order.

A score of 33% means that we got one medallist correct, but the other two were not guessed at all (even for other medals).

 

 

I think our top and bottom finishers are to be expected.

 

 

MOST AND LEAST PREDICTABLE DISCIPLINES

 

Events where we guessed the Gold Medallist 100%:

 

Events where we guessed the Gold Medallist 0% (nobody guessed it correctly, but maybe for another medal):

 

Our Average Gold Medal Correct Guess was 45%

 

 

Our Least Predictable Disciplines:

 

Our Most Predictable Disiplines:

 

Our average, across all disciplines, for total podium makeup is 48%.

 

Full Discipline Results by Predictability:

 

What I learned this Olympics: Though there are favorites...the Olympics causes anything to happen!   

 

Thanks for playing, everyone!  I won't be doing this in the future, as it took away from my enjoyment of the Olympics somewhat (both in the hosting and the predicting myself), but I look forward to the next Olympics cycle!

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by clemsonbeav

[szy123 139]

In truly Polish fashion I went from the 1st place at the start all the way down to 32nd, almost dead last 😂

[Monzanator 5,071]

On the contrary I did much better in the second week compared to a rather poor start (some alpine skiing & ski jumping upsets & less predictable snowboard/freestyle skiing cost me).

 

Thx @clemsonbeavfor counting all the data! 

[valtellina 6]

Grazie a chi ha gestito tutto in modo professionale. 

Partito forte e finito al 1 posto a punti con sorpasso alle ultime tre gare domenicali.