MHSN

I have to give credit to Rafiq Huseynov for winning the quota. he won 4 hard matches at this old age to do so. and that was my prediction too but he had some helps from the refs in all 4 matches, some small helps and some big big helps like the India match, to me Sunil Kumar clearly got robbed in the last second. Sunil also got robbed in Asian Qualifiers against Berdimuratov. poor guy

so ... Aik Mnatsakanian won the quota without doing much offensively. with just good defense he won his first match against a weak opponent by just a gut wrench but from then in his next 3 matches he was intentionally passive early to receive the first caution to eventually win the match 1-1. yeah that worked for him 3 times. I can't blame the wrestlers for taking advantage of shitty rules. it's unbelievable they are not fixing this after 3-4 years. lots of matches finished 1-1 today.

my take on what happened so far we had lots of surprises as expected. but I'm mostly impressed with that Belarus kid at 130kg. he is a 97kg but has to wrestle here because they already won the 97kg quota. and boy he is World Junior and World U23 Champion for a reason, even against guys 20-30 kg heavier than himself. Nakazato of Japan also surprised me a lot. he beat 3 strong European wrestlers to give himself a chance. The Ukrainian at 97kg fought his heart out against the beast Sargsian, really unlucky to lose the match on criteria by bogus cautions. disastrous day for Hungary, Szoke was unlucky but Vancza and Levai simply didn't take advantage of their favorable draw. both Turkish wrestlers got eliminated early. terrible day for the host. CUB and EGY had 5 quotas already, their last wrestler lost here but still can have a repechage chance. so far AZE, RUS and GEO are doing better. they suffered defeats but they will be happy with 3 in the SF.

Semifinals (Quota matches) 60: vs / vs 67: vs / vs 77: vs / vs 87: vs / vs 97: vs / vs 130: vs / vs

I see, I wouldn't do that myself but maybe that's a smart strategy and the Polish team is doing good so far. even that 87kg defeat was just a momentary mistake from Kulynycz. there are 3 quotas available here + some of the favorites are tired from the previous events. which means maybe there is a better chance here.

it will be really hard if Bisultanov reaches the SF. he looked great in his first match and I think he is not losing today, but we will see

Kulynycz wasted a big chance to beat the top seed Maskevich I might be wrong but it feels like this is Poland A team and that team in Baku was the B team ! risky strategy but I think it works at least for a couple of them

he wrestled for something like 2 minutes and he was literally dead !! yeah physical condition plays a big big rule here in this last chance tournament, Selcuk Can also lost which is a big surprise but he is a 72kg wrestler, obviously couldn't cut weight twice in a month, he was very poor here this tournament is more unpredictable than any other wrestling tournament.

Conyedo never did anything special since his move to 125kg. I know he is an Olympic medalist but his recent results aren't any good. Baran on the other hand didn't wrestle in Euro qualifier. which means he is more fresh. Baran is the favorite IMO but of course Conyedo has his chances too. Valiev won the Russian nationals in 2023 but I can't remember if he wrestled anywhere after that. he was supposed to make his debut for Albania few months ago but for some reasons (injury or paperwork) it didn't happened. he won the World U23 title 3 years ago so technically he wouldn't be allowed to wrestle for another country. but looks like they paid the right guy in IOC to get an exemption for him

3 quotas here ? unless you have a very good women's team, I absolutely don't think so. even 1 male quota is hard to achieve for France. even though I hope to see host nation being represented by more than couple of wrestlers in the games. that's good for the sport Magamadov is very good but he received a very hard draw. still possible but will be very hard

in Greco any solid wrestler can beat a favorite and I consider both of them as solid wrestlers. Marcel's first round looks OK, but then from the 2nd round he has to beat guys slightly better than himself. that's not impossible but he needs a bit of luck too Tryone (97) had a good chance in Baku but lost it narrowly . this time it will be harder, I think he wins the 1st round. but like his brother from then he has to beat tough guys. so I don't think they qualify but I won't be very surprised if they do.

time for freestyle 57kg: we have a balanced draw, Spencer Lee will get the top seed Zou in the 2nd round, next will be the former Euro Champ Egorov, I think Lee is going to win these matches, our only entry is in this weight with 2021 World silver medalist Sarlak, we know we are weak in this weight but still I'm trying to think positively he will face Dingashvili and then ROU/KAZ to reach the SF. he is well capable of doing that but I don't think he can beat Lee I always rated Aman (IND) very high and he failed, I'm still going to do that he has so much potential, just needs a better strategy. this time he has Vangelov (won't be easy but I think he can manage) and then Yatsenko/Zanabazar/Metreveli , most probably he will face the North Korean in the SF who only has Hurst Lehr as a serious opponent. I think the loser of Aman/PRK match will get the 3rd quota after beating Sarlak in the last match, so 65kg: that's a big bracket with something like 40 wrestlers ! I see 5-6 guys with a chance in top half, Dudaev, Skriabin, Kim, Arushanian, Sacultan, Duman, or even Clarke or couple more. bottom half is more clear with 3 big names, and they are in the same quarter, Tulga and Retherford will face first and the winner gets Kudiev. I would pick these 3 guys to qualify but maximum 2 of them can do it. I'm also interested to see Sujeet, the new guy of India, he couldn't wrestle in Asia but he most be good and can do something, still my picks 74kg: UWW promised Chamizo to be the 1st seed here, instead he is going to wrestle the 1st seed in the first round no big difference, the 1st seed won't be hard for him. his next match is not easy but he can manage, it will be Kentchadze or Valiev in QF, in the other quarter we have a tough part with Rassadin, Kaipanov, Khadjiev and Kuramagomedov. I think the winner comes from the first quarter. I give it to Chamizo but it depends a lot on Valiev's situation. he is recently hired by Albania in bottom half I don't think anybody can prevent a Demirtas/Salkazanov semifinal. there are few dangerous guys like Mottaghinia or Saipudinov or Jaideep though. my picks 86kg: if Kurugliev is healthy, nobody beats him here but I know he is half-injured and couldn't do a thing in Baku. he has a tough draw and he won't survive it if not healthy, he has Makoev and then Gocen. probably Magamadov or Jezierzanski in QF. the winner of this part will face Deepak or Myakhailov in SF. I pick Kurugliaev but that depends on his health. I also think the winner of IND/UKR will get the 3rd quota bottom half is not that hard, Ramazanov has a good chance to reach the SF with no trouble. In the last quarter Gamkrelidze and Sharipov are probably better than the rest. I think it goes down to Ramazanov/Gamkrelidze SF. so my picks 97kg: Arash Yoshida was unlucky to not win the quota in Asia, if he beats Bataev in the 2nd round he can go further to the SF. in the first quarter we have Thiele, Ibragimov, Nurov and the Mongolian, I expect to see a JPN/MGL semifinal in bottom half I think Baitsaev can beat the Ukrainian and then Habila to go to the SF which will be probably against Baranowski. if Baran was healthy he would have a better chance for Poland. I say 130kg: I think the top half SF will be Ligeti vs Lazarev, only Rakhimov or Sumit can change that. bottom half is harder, Deng will get the winner of Sharipov/Khotsianivski in QF and then Baran/Conyedo in SF. Sharipov was physically terrible in Asia. I'm not sure if he is 100% ready here. only because of this reason I think he will gas badly at some point and can't win 3-4 matches, therefore my picks

I don't think so, but he is in the easier half of the draw, still needs 1 or 2 very big wins, not impossible but I don't think so

OK let's start with Greco, keep in mind we usually see more surprises in this last chance tournament simply because the physical situation play a bigger role here. most of these guys already wrestled in the continental qualifiers , in this sport you can't reach your 100% twice in a month. Asian Wrestlers are more in disadvantage since the Asian QT was the last one. 60kg: to me there are 6 favorite for 3 quotas and they are nicely spread in the balanced draw. Gharibyan has couple of obstacles on his way but I expect to see him in the SF against the winner of Tibilov/Lalaev. I would pick Tibilov but he was bad in Baku and other two guys didn't wrestle there which gave them a huge advantage M. Mammadov is the clear favorite in the other part. but his 2nd and 3rd round matches can be very hard. GEO is entering a different Abuladze. Arnaut (ROU) is a good chance to make it to SF, giving himself 2 chances to qualify. I say 67kg: Vancza can be very happy with the draw, he couldn't hand pick the draw better than this. M. El-Sayed is the biggest name in this part, but he has to beat Amaev and then Etlinger/Petic in his first two matches, he was terrible in African qualifiers, I don't know if he can survive 2 back to back tough matches. I still pick him because he is simply better bottom half looks much harder, Visaitov/Zoidze in the first round, the winner most probably will go far to the SF. I don't know how Selcuk Can can handle cutting weight twice in a short period of time but he is my pick anyway. 77kg: things look good for Gutu until the SF where he will get Levai, Levai was terrible at Euro Qualifiers, which means other guys like Mnatsakanian or the Ukrainian. slim chance for Liu too in bottom half Viktor Nemes will get Kamanjasevic in the 2nd round, if he survives this, it will be Lomadze next. he can lose to any of these solid guys. in the 3rd Quarter, Kutuzov is a very late replacement for Russia, I know he is good but I won't be surprised if he loses to Kamal Bey in the first round. my picks 87kg: we have two big names in the top half, Maskevich and Bisultanov, I don't think anybody else stands a chance but you never know in Greco. the winner of Huklek/Mukubu match in the first round can do something. bottom half has more favorites but no clear fav. I rate Berdimuratov as the better wrestler there but he wasn't great in Asia and had less time to recover. his first round against GER can go wrong easily. I don't think he survives 4 tough matches. first round match between Gregorich/Gobadze is very important too. we also have Bradu and the Armenian, but I go with the grandpa Huseynov. so I say 97kg: Arvi Savolainen should be happy with this draw, even though he can lose to the giant Kyrgyz in the 2nd round. he lost to Baldauf in Euro Q but I think that won't happen again, Baldauf has to beat Basar and then AZE/NED to even get to SF. Artur Sargssian is a monster, he broke his hands last year in World Champs and didn't wrestle much after that, if he is ready he is my pick for sure specially because he has a favorable draw in first 3 rounds. two favorites Szoke and Nikoloz will face first and the winner will get Kajaia. Szoke lost to Nikoloz 1-1 in Euro QT but it's 50/50 between these guys. my picks 130kg: top half is indeed harder with Kajaia, Kuosmanen, Vyshnyvetski, Shariati, Knystautas, Ovasaypan and couple more. it's really really hard to pick one between these guys. most of their matches will end up 1-1 (except the Ukrainian, he knows how to score big and how lose big points) so it's like a coin toss competition Alexuc has an easier road to the SF which gives him a huge advantage in the bottom half. in the last quarter we have Vitek, Marvik and Heiki boring Nabi. again most matches will finish 1-1. but i have to pick 3, so

Yeah sure I know everybody can't wait to see that I will do that today. it just takes time, I'm still "processing" the brackets for myself

it's weird that there is still nothing about East Asian Qualifier in either ITTF or ATTU website. I assume there won't be a separate tournament, they will either mix it with another tournament in the region. or just award the quotas to the best ranked athlete. it's HKG or PRK for the men's quota and just PRK for the women's quota. MGL is there too but too weak to compete.

now that makes sense, so they are waiting for those countries (CHN, KAZ in Asia and USA in MK) to confirm one of those quotas and then they can reallocate the other one so Singapore, Iran and Brazil will get a quota later most probably but that's not 100% confirmed yet.

is this accurate? https://www.canoeicf.com/sites/default/files/paris_2024_csp_quota_allocation_as_of_07052024_v2.pdf Kazakhstan won both MK1 and MK2 quotas which is not possible per rules and China despite already having 4 quotas in WK4, is winning 3 more in WK1 and WK2. (while each country can win max 6 quotas in WK)

Russian national freestyle Championship finished tonight, this tournament always serves as their trials. as long as Russia concerns this team goes to the Olympics and World Champs (for non-Olympic weights) but of course it's not only up to them 57: Akhmad Idrisov 61: Zavur Uguev 65: Shamil Mamedov 70: Inalbek Sheriev 74: Anzor Zakuev 79: Magomed Magomaev 86: Ibragim Kadiev 92: Alan Bagaev 97: Abdulrashid Sadulaev 125: Abdulla Kurbanov Zaurbek Sidakov (74) and Artur Naifonov (86) didn't wrestle here, apparently a bit injured, they will face the winner at some point (from what I heard in Hungary ranking series) same goes to Zavur Uguev, he wrestled at 61 to avoid cutting weight, but he is still a 57kg. The Great Sadulaev almost got pinned in the final against Alikhan Zhabrailov, some may say he did get pinned (that was dubious to me) but pulled himself together and won the match 8-4. 65kg final was also amazing between Mamedov and 61kg World Champion Abbasgazhi Magomedov which ended up 8-7 in Mamedov's favor.

That was just the preliminary list, in the new update all Chinese #1 wrestlers are back in the list. lots of them will be seeded and that will change a lot for the draw.

I'm sure they are all officially registered as refugee. but the majority of them are not real refugees. they mostly move to a western country for economical reasons. (normal immigration, where they keep visiting the original country) but then later register themselves as refugee to take advantage of the situation. I mean who doesn't want a free ride to the Olympics. to be there, having fun.

it depends on your definition of refugee there are something like ~4 millions Afghans living in Iran and he is one of them. most probably even born here. so technically yes he is a refugee, he lives in another country (with no intention of moving back to AFG) but he has an Afghan passport and represented Afghanistan internationally until few months ago. the situation changes in Afghanistan month by month, one day he can say OK I want to represent my homeland, another day he can say oh no I'm still a refugee.

Everyone who has followed her story knows she is not a refugee, none of them are. They just use this opportunity to either get a free ticket to the Olympics or in her case get some money. I'm not going to bore everybody with details. that doesn't matter anyway. she won the quota herself so at least she technically deserves it. Bulgaria had two female athletes at the Euro qualifier and failed to qualify, (one of them was very close though) this looks like giving them a 3rd chance which is against the rules. if they wanted to "hire" her, they had to do it before the qualifiers. as for Abbasi, he is a refugee in Iran (not from Iran) and he is not really good. he was about to lose his semifinal but he landed one heavy kick and won the match by RSC. (which was pure luck IMO) I seriously doubt any country is interested in his service. but maybe I'm wrong. I follow some websites covering Afghan sport news, (we share the same language) never heard about him going back to represent AFG but that's a possible scenario. or maybe King Tommy and his goons just didn't want his name in their lovely list for pure political reasons. I think he will go Paris anyway, we will find out soon under which flag.

that's not entirely impossible. he was representing Afghanistan 5-6 months ago, he switched to refugee team when he couldn't make the Afghan team (they had two much better guys in two other weights) but in the WT ranking, he is still listed as RTA (refugee team)

two so-called "refugee" athletes qualified in Taekwondo before and none of them are here. Kimia Alizadeh found herself a buyer finally and since her name is not here I assume the IOC illegally let her transfer her quota to Bulgaria but I wonder why former Afghan Alireza Abbasi is not in this list.