OlympicsFan

Very early in the season. I am sure that they will be ready in Tokyo. Poland might be more likely to win bronze, but the Netherlands should definitely make the final and probably finish top 6.

Are you really from Germany? All your comments in this thread are about France ...

Is it possible for a nation to compete in a synchronized event at the Olympics if the two athletes qualified individually or in another synchronized event (but not as a duo in the same event)?

1) I was thinking about the following gold medal chances in swimming: Men’s 200 free (Scott and Dean), men’s 200 IM (Scott), men’s 100 breast, men’s medley relay, men’s 800 free relay. 2) I think the chance of them winning all track cycling golds is less than 1 %. Especially in women’s sprint events they are way off. Realistically they won’t win more than 4 or 5 golds.

I don’t care about the new sports and I don’t count them, so maybe you are right. If we only count the same sports as in 2016, then I absolutely don’t see them winning 20+ golds.

Not sure how realistic 2 golds for GB in equestrian is ... On the other hand they should win at least 2 golds in swimming, probably more.

If you really see it like that, you are definitely wrong. At the worst they will finish 5th in terms of gold medals. In swimming alone they could win 5 golds. Would be surprising if they win less than 20 golds and there aren’t 6 other nations that could win 20 golds or more.

No, don’t see where 20+ golds should come from, which is probably what it will take to finish top 4. I really like that Japan didn’t try as desperately as GB pre-2012 for example to win more medals at their home Olympics. I always admired Japan and South Korea for not wasting shitloads of tax payer money to become better in something as irrelevant as professional sports. Obviously hosting the Olympics doesn’t really fit that strategy ...

Also men’s 5000 m and women’s 800 m ...

1) Lol @ Someone thinking that the Netherlands could win the 3rd most gold medals. Realistically the top 4 will be USA and then Russia, GB and China in some order. 2) Maybe Namibia could also win a gold after not winning anything in 2016. 3) Interesting that China is considered a lock for second most golds, I think before 2016 it was the same ...

1) Why? 2) Who? Do you mean ROC(K)?

Not sure if you read my comment, but the main reason why I think that breaststroke should be removed is that it clearly isn’t a level playing field when FINA either doesn’t try to make sure that everyone only uses the allowed number of dolphin kicks or they just don’t care. Swimming and athletics are sports where decisions of individual judges shouldn’t matter, unlike in other sports like gymnastics, figure skating, boxing or ski jumping. I used the same reasoning in the past when I wanted race walking to be eliminated. In backstroke and butterfly you don’t have that Problem or at least not to that extent. I just don’t see a reason (apart from Tradition) why some sports (swimming, wrestling, canoeing) should be allowed to blow up their number of medal events by using different techniques, while most other sports don’t have that option. Why not also include compound archery for example by that logic?

Would be great if FINA would get rid of breaststroke, completely pointless when they don’t even try to create a level playing field. The number of dolphin kicks is the most important factor for success and FINA either doesn’t want to control it or they are too stupid to do it. Also not sure what the point is in swimming with a technique that isn’t even among the 3 fastest techniques. Why not also have a 100 m/200 m/400 m/800 m/1500 m/5000 m/10000 m track race at the Olympics where people are only allowed to run backwards? Would make about as much sense ...

Hungary and Poland are hosting 99 % of all important competitions ...

The women’s 400 m will definitely be a funny freak show with Miller-Uibo, the athletes from Namibia and Eid Naser. Would be great if Seyni would also be allowed to compete.

Could you maybe tell me why Ukraine is so good in men’s gymnastics? I am sure that they have less money than Germany and I also don’t think that gymnastics is sport number one in Ukraine, so what is your secret?

Why do you ask whether we would like a prediction contest and than not give us the option to vote No? I think many top athletes won’t show up and even if they do, they won’t be at their best, so predictions will be kind of pointless.

Any chance that them missing the final had nothing to do with their own shape/the level of competition and instead was a result of them only using this as training for the Olympics? In other words: Should we see this as any indication for the Olympics?

If Germany is indeed doing what I think, I would be very glad and I’d have to give big props to their new head coach (Valery Belenky). I always thought that the best strategy for a nation like Germany would be to focus on the all-around to qualify a team and then to have everyone only focusing on one or two events for the Olympics and not give a shit about individual/team all-around results at the Olympics.

Not that crazy of a standard, even two German guys ran 2:08 or faster recently and Germany is pretty bad in men’s marathon. Also you can’t compare marathon times at the Olympics to marathon times elsewhere and with the new shoes it has become pretty „easy“ to run 2:08. Last year 109 men ran 2:08 or faster, in 2019 151 men ran 2:08 or faster.

Also Heidtmann in the 200 IM, but he already qualified in the 400 IM.

Interesting that Braunschweig also made the FINA standard this morning, so in theory Germany could take both Ulrich and Braunschweig and wouldn‘t have to use relay-only spots for them. I read somewhere that a nation can take 2 relay-only swimmers per relay, do you know if that is correct? Let‘s say I have 3 qualified relays, does that mean that I could for example nominate 6 relay-only swimmers for one relay and then no relay-only swimmers for the other two relays? I think the following swimmers are guaranteed a relay-only spot: Men: Fildebrandt, Friese, Zellmann Women: Küchler, Höpink, Pietruschka, Elendt So in theory Germany should have 7 relay-only spots left and could for example nominate Mrozinski and Salchow. Braunschweig, Ulrich and A. Köhler (from 2019) all have the Standard, so you wouldn’t have to use a relay-only spot for them? Also Demler could get a spot (for the women’s 800 free relay), but she might also still qualify in the 200 IM individually. In general I am not a fan of nominating relay-only swimmers, but I think it makes sense if that athlete is actually good enough to be subbed in and still allow the relay to qualify for the final. There is always a chance that one athlete gets sick or is out of shape, so it would be bad/unfair for the other relay swimmers if there wouldn’t be a back up. When I saw that Elendt entered the 200 breast, I thought that she would try to get the standard on the first 100 if she misses it in the 100 breast (but apparently she had other plans) and I wondered why the other athletes (for example Ulrich or Höpink) didn’t try the same.

Braunschweig beat Ulrich and was faster than 54.27, while Ulrich didn’t hit the standard, so he shouldn’t be qualified.

Not sure what he means with excellent chances, but in order to qualify, Ulrich either has to hit the standard or he has to hope that no one beats him with a time faster than 54.27. Not sure if he will be allowed to compete individually even without making the German standard, but in the past that usually was the policy of the german swimming federation (allowing swimmers who qualified in the relay to swim individually if they have the FINA standard).

Don’t like this poll, I thought it would be more about predictions.