Realistically:
Rūta Meilutytė - 100m Breaststroke
Danas Rapšys - 200m / 400m Freestyle
Mykolas Alekna - Discus Throw
Laura Asadauskaitė - Modern Pentathlon
Dominika Banevič - Breaking
Donata Karalienė/Dovilė Rimkutė - Double Sculls
Could have a fighting chance:
Andrius Gudžius - Discus Throw
Liveta Jasiūnaitė - Javelin Throw
Edis Matusevičius - Javelin Throw
Basketball 3x3 Men & Women
Men's K2 500
Men's K4 500
Men's C2 500
Men's Pair (rowing)
Women's Pair (rowing)
Women's Single Sculls (rowing)
Ieva Serapinaitė/Gintarė Venčkauskaitė - Modern Pentathlon
Kotryna Teterevkova - 200m Breaststroke
Yesssss, this is the likeliest chance for Lithuania to have their best Olympics of our lifetime, but Danas Rapšys needs to not get injured, Meilutytė needs to decide if she even participates. Modern Pentathlon is unpredictable, so Alekna, Banevič and our rowing duo look likeliest for medals, because they had very good results in multiple important championships leading up to the Olympic Games.
We most often than not have medals in canoe sprint, so I had to put the guys there, our other rowing teams are strong enough to challenge. Basketball 3x3's won a couple of important tournaments and medalled at others, Gudžius, Jasiūnaitė and Matusevičius are a bit reliant on their competition underperforming, or them overperforming. Serapinaitė and Venčkauskaitė have a lot of credentials and have been at the top, but you never know with MP. Teterevkova showed promise with bronze at the Europeans, she started training at the US and has an amazing training partner now, so she might even improve more during the year.