Sub13

USA is the obvious choice. Australia has 1 very strong chance left (Kaylee 200 back), 1 solid chance (McEvoy 50 free), 1 toss up (Kaylee 200IM) and a few outside chances (Mixed medley, Titmus 800, Temple??).
 
USA has probably 8 solid chances left with 3 of them being heavy favourites. 
 
So while Australia is possible it will basically take a miracle. We need to convert every single chance and hope USA gets upset in a heavy favourite 

Brett Hawke is an American citizen who lives in California. Don’t blame us.

USA is the obvious choice. Australia has 1 very strong chance left (Kaylee 200 back), 1 solid chance (McEvoy 50 free), 1 toss up (Kaylee 200IM) and a few outside chances (Mixed medley, Titmus 800, Temple??).
 
USA has probably 8 solid chances left with 3 of them being heavy favourites. 
 
So while Australia is possible it will basically take a miracle. We need to convert every single chance and hope USA gets upset in a heavy favourite 

McEvoy leads the 50m freestyle qualifiers with 21.32
 
 Jordan Crooks with a PB to place 2nd in heats with 21.51!

Cam 21.32 in the heat!
 
 

Women's 100m Backstroke
Final Results   Kaylee McKEOWN
57.33OR   Regan SMITH
57.66   Katharine BERKOFF
57.98   Full Final Results HERE

I might cry if  Mona McSharry wins a medal tomorrow 
 
still feel others can raise their game but fingers crossed 

True but I think there’s cause for optimism in other events now that we didn’t have pre night one, such as men’s 100 (chalmers at trials was a fluke), Titmus maybe challenging in 800, and ZSC maybe being able to challenge if Qin is in poor form.
 
The main thing that has gone worse for us is the medley relay because of Williamson  

Still the second fastest performance all time. 
 
 
Dream day needed gold in the men's 400 but still an awesome day! I'm just a bit bummed about the times.
 
Doping will never be eradicated not even in your own country or anywhere else.

Strangely enough, I don't think the majority of the world reads 'Sportetsociete' regularly. Is there evidence it was reported in any other countries?

Strangely enough, I don't think the majority of the world reads 'Sportetsociete' regularly. Is there evidence it was reported in any other countries?

Just because it was discussed in French media doesn't mean it was reported elsewhere.

No one knew about it until 2 days ago. Pretty hard to discuss an issue that you don’t know exists

No one knew about it until 2 days ago. Pretty hard to discuss an issue that you don’t know exists

Xu went 52.05 which is season leading time. Fink was very average im trials think China a most likely to win gold. 

Hopefully reach 50 medals (grace note)
My dream is for Australia to reach 20 golds, but a lot will have to go right

my mind says 13-18

It seems like World Aquatics actually did prioritise sending OCT invites to relay only swimmers, which isn’t what the rules say. Interesting…

Ok this topic has died a little. So let’s do a little fun analysis.
 
For the first time since Melbourne it looks like we have a chance at topping the swimming medal table. USA seems like the only other team capable (maybe China but USA and AUS would both need to fall apart). This will hinge heavily on 3 key swimmers:
 
1. Kaylee McKeown: Has a gold chance in 100 back, 200 back and 200IM. The second favourite in these events are all Americans (Smith, Smith, Douglass). So if Kaylee wins all 3 that’s +3 to AUS, and if she loses all 3 it’s likely +3 to USA, which is a massive 6 gold swing.
 
2. Sam Short: Short looked like the favourite for the 400 and likely favourite for the 800 before he got sick and was off form at trials. The 400 won’t be won by an American but the 800 likely goes to Finke if not Short. So Short can get +2 to AUS, or possibly +1 to USA, so a potential 3 gold swing.
 
3. Ariarne Titmus: Titmus has a chance in the 200 free. Second favourite is MOC so if Titmus loses MOC should win, and if both lose then an American won’t win. Titmus is favourite in the 400, and it’s possible but quite unlikely American Ledecky wins if Titmus doesn’t. Ledecky is the favourite in the 800, but Titmus has a very outside chance. If Titmus (or Titmus + MOC) wins all 3 that’s a +3 to AUS, or possibly a +2 to USA if she loses them all, making a 5 medal swing.
 
So overall, these 3 swimmers represent a best case scenario of +8 to AUS or a worst case scenario of +6 to USA, a 14 gold medal swing. We can pretty confidently say if we get 0/8 there is no possibility we top the medal table (and likely aren’t in the top 3), but if we win all 8 then that alone might be enough. Add strong potential in W100 free, 100 free relay and 200 free relay, and if these three can all pull off all their swims we will likely win.
 
Now just to be clear it is extremely unlikely we convert all 8 of these (both 800s are especially unlikely) but hey it’s fun to dream haha

I think it should be one and done. Each country literally gets one every 4 years, and sending the same swimmer who still doesn’t have an OCT 3 Games in a row is not helping promote swimming

I think it should be one and done. Each country literally gets one every 4 years, and sending the same swimmer who still doesn’t have an OCT 3 Games in a row is not helping promote swimming

My understanding (as discussed on SwimSwam a while ago) is that relay only athletes cannot enter any events unless they are invited with an OCT. Just because a relay only athlete has an OCT doesn’t automatically mean they are allowed to enter the individual event.

There was some discussion about this over at SwimSwam around the time of Canadian trials and apparently you can't use an OCT if you're entered as relay only.

And to be honest, I'm not sure if your interpretation is correct for two reasons.
1) There should be one athlete listed per distance in one batch even though 2nd best athlete has better score than 1st best in another distance. Unless one athlete has the best OCT in two distances.
2) Relay-only athletes should also be included. They need to be invited to swim in the individual distances because otherwise they wouldn't be relay-only. Per: https://swimswam.com/world-aquatics-confirms-that-relay-only-swimmers-dont-get-bonus-events-at-the-olympics/

Haha no all good! I don’t make a habit of correcting people but yeah I was pretty sure I was right on this one

Yeah no worries mate. I'm not bothered by you correcting me by the way, when I said that I was just letting out my personal frustration at once again interpreting something wrong as I've been doing that a lot recently.