Ogreman

It was pretty close. Halle Hilton was only 0.3 away from a quota and if Emma Slevin didn't have two falls she definitely would have qualifed. Adam Steele had a bit of a disaster but at his best he would have been close. I don't know that I would call this as just one quota yet although it may well end up being. Obviously Rhys hasn't qualifed yet and at least one of Rhys, Kurbanov , Lee Chih Kai and Ahmad abu al Soud won't qualify between this final and the two apparatus world cup spots next year. (Unless Lee Chih Kai gets the Asian championships all around spot) There is still an all around spot available at next years Europeans but basically everyone who hasn't qualified a team will be eligible for that including possibly Russia so that is basically gone already. The apparatus world cup spots could get weird though especially on the womens side of things. I started writing this trying to be optimistic that a second quota might be possible but I am talking myself out of this as a type. Then again it is important to remember that pommel horse (and rings) is as specialised as it gets and on most apparatus most of the top gymnasts are also on the big teams/ qualifying all around. On the positive side though as I understand apparutus qualifiers can compete all around so I believe as long as Rhys qualifies on pommel he can compete on floor if he wants so ye know there is that.

14.933 for Rhys McClenagahan in qualifying. He did flex his hips at one point in the routine but I thought his routine would still break 15. Anyway he will be safely through. Only in subdivision 2 so obviously yet to see a lot of the potential contenders but Whitlock scored 15.266 and notably from an Olympic qualifying perspective Nariman Kurbanov only managed 14.166 so thats one potential contender for the Olympic quota out of the way. Eamon Montgomery and Dominick Cunningham both threatened big scores on floor (well for them- like breaking 14) but faded in their last couple of passes.

Yeah its been an interesting one. I'll be honest I haven't managed to watch as many of these fights as I would have liked but anyway. Obviously my predictions are not proving to be particularly accurate but should roughly on track to be somewhere over 50% and similar to my accuracy at the European and African qualifiers. Obviously boxing is a very volatile sport and as such difficult to predict but assuming that someone with perfect knowledge (ie the absolute most accurate possible predictions) which I am far from would only hit on about 75% or so percent of qualifiers I think these predictions are at least reasonable. So quickly running through the weights. The schedule is designed to have 3 days with finals so there are some boxers that haven't started competing yet and others the medals and Olympic qualifiers havve already been decided. Womens 50kg- I should have probably included Yesugen Oyunsetseg in my other Olympic calibre boxers list but I am quite surprised that she beat Kyzaibay. The other notable results are Chuthamat Raksat beating Tsukimi Namiki and Nikhat Zareen hammering Thi tham Nguyen. This one has mostly gone too form though outside of Oyunsetseg springing a bit of a surprise. Womens 54kg- Not too much of note here except Yuan Chang surprisingly beating Jutamas Jitpong it was a 3-2 split decision and she likely got a bit of a hometown helping hand but lets see how she does does against Hsiao Wen Huang. Women's 57kg- So Parveen did beat Xu Zichun. Probably should have picked that to happen but anyway. Women's 60kg- So the unknown North Koreans strike. Won Ungyong beats Oh Yeonji. Nothing especially notable at 66 or 75kg For the men 51kg- The draw gave us a couple of big early fights with Hasanboy Dusmatov once again beating Saken Bibossinov and Tomoya Tsuboi beating Deepak. Thankfully I predicted both of these right though. Unfortunately on the other side of the draw Aaron Jude Bado lost and Rsc-I (injury) in the first round so that pick went out the window straight away. So Chonryong beating Makhmetov probably isn't that surprising but there is an Olympic quota very much up for grabs here between Thitisan Panmot, So Chonryong and Po Wei Tu. 57kg- Still early in tis one but picking Shahbaksh to medal was dumb of me. Carlo Paalam beat Mohamed Abu Jajeh despite the size mismatch. 63.5kg- Possibly the most interesting weightclass here so far. Chinzorig Baatarsukh reversed the result of the world champs final a few months ago and beat Ruslan Abdullaev. I rewatched the world champs fight and Baatarsukh certainly had a case to win that one too. Strange to see a 30 year old suddenly hit their prime. You don't see that too often in amateur boxing but of course most of them rarely get there. Shiva Thapa losing to Askat Toltaev was bad. Even out of form he shouldn't lose that fight. Chu En Lai now becomes the massive favourite for the second Olympic quota now. As I said at the start I haven't seen that many of the fights here so far but the only disgraceful judging decision I've seen was the Bakhodur Usmonov Yertugen Zeinnulinov fight. I have no idea how 3 judges decided the Kazakh won that one. 71kg- So I said Nuradin Rustambek Uulu should cruise to a medal because no one in his bracket was any use at all and sure enough he lost his first fight to Chia Wei Kan. To be fair to me though Chia Wei kan is not a good boxer. My man Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov is stilll on for the Olymipic quota. Eashash losin to Okazawa was interesting as well but the most intersting fights here are the two quarter finals at the bottom fo this draw. 80kg- Tanglatihan Tuohaetaerbieke edged past Nurbek Oralbay. Other than that nothing surpising. 92kg- So Lazizbek Mullojonov lost to Han Xuezhen. Did not see that one coming. Apparently I know nothing about heavyweight because I managed to get all of the medallists wrong here I think. 92+kg- Nothing of note yet.

Qualifiers comparison Country Projected Qualifiers Qualifiers Romania 10 11 Netherlands 10 10 Australia 9 9 Great Britain 9 9 USA 9 8 New Zealand 5 8 Ireland 7 6 Germany 4 6 China 4 5 Italy 4 5 Spain 4 4 Switzerland 4 4 Lithuania 3 4 France 4 3 Croatia 2 3 Norway 1 3 Greece 5 2 Canada 1 2 Czechia 1 2 Denmark 3 1 Poland 2 1 Serbia 2 1 Austria 1 1 Bulgaria 1 1 Chile 1 1 Japan 1 1 AIN (BELARUS) 1 1* Mexico 0 1 South Africa 0 1 Belgium 2 0 Estonia 1 0 Moldova 1 0 Ukraine 1 0 Uzbekistan 1 0 As mentioned above the only big country level misses were New Zealand who significantly outperformed their world cup form and Greece who significantly under performed. The only other countries to be more than one away from what I projected were Germany who had a very good champs by their recent standards, Norway who had a couple of surprise qualifiers and Belgium/ Denmark who both underperformed by multiple boats. This could possibly end up playing in their favour with continental qualifiers though of course.

Right, Only two weeks after the event finished, here is my final update. I was going to include the next two best boats in each boat class but it looked chaotic and at least in 2019 although probably mostly pandemic related very few boats that narrowly missed out at worlds actually ended up qualifying for the Olympics. Hit rates Semi finals Finals Podium Winners Olympic qualifiers 122/144 (84.1%) 63/84 (75%) 32/42 (76.2%) 9/14 (64.3%) 91/114 (79.8%) So it held up quite well in terms of predicting medallists and winners so a similar type of ranking may well prove fairly accurate at least at predicting the podium at the Olympics next year. I fell one boat short of hitting my 80% target on qualifiers but sure we will round it up and say we sort of got there. Overestimating Greece's early season form and underestimating New Zealand probably were predictable errors and therefore incorporable into this ranking that probably cost me an extra one or two correct qualifiers.

Parveen could absolutely at 57kg. I just picked Xu Zichun because it is in China. Preeti qualifying would very much surprise me. Ah the myth that it will even out in the end. Sample size is too small even taking into account multiple qualifying tournaments and the Olympics themselves. For most countries yeah overall draws should be fairly even but some will get absolutely shafted. Look this prediction ended up on the pessimistic side for India and the draw while not terrible certainly doesn't help so India probably will outperform my predictions. I'm not sure how they get to 8 medals though. Remember there are only the Olympic weights here and a lot of India's recent major medals have come at non-Olympic weight classes.

Predicted medal table Gold Silver Bronze Olympic Qs 1 Uzbekistan 6 0 1 7 2 Kazakhstan 3 3 2 6 3 China 2 1 3 5 4 India 1 2 2 3 5 South Korea 1 0 0 1 6 Philippines 0 2 1 2 7 Turkmenistan 0 2 0 2 8 Chinese Taipei 0 1 4 3 9 Thailand 0 1 3 2 10 North Korea 0 1 0 1 11 Japan 0 0 3 2 12 Jordan 0 0 1 0 12 Kyrgyzstan 0 0 1 0 12 Tajikistan 0 0 1 0 12 Syria 0 0 1 0 12 Vietnam 0 0 1 0 12 Bahrain 0 0 1 0 12 Iran 0 0 1 0 Total 13 13 26 34 This is how the medal table/ Olympic qualifiers would look if my predictions were accurate. They will not be but the final medal table should at least look vaguely similar. Mongolia is the only notable country that entirely missed the podium in my predictions.

(I ran out of emojis) Men's 92+kg Gold- Bakhodir Jalolov , Silver- Kamshybek Kunkabayev , Bronze-Danabieke Bayikewuzi , Narendar Berwal . Other Olympic calibre boxers- N/A. A draw where the best two boxers are on opposite sides of the draw. It's a miracle. Kunkabayev will likey comfortably beat the winner of Olympian Danis Latypov and Mohamed Mlaiyes in his quarter final. Narendar has a very straightforward path to joining Kunkabayev in the semis but is very unlikely to beat him. Danabieke Bayikewuzi also should have an easy path to a medal with just a quarterfinal against probably Byeknur Khali . Bakhodir Jalolov has a quarter final against Asian bronze medallist Muhammad Abbrordinov but his only potential "test" will be the final against Kunkabayev. Jalolov is unbeaten since 2018 and has beaten Kunkabayev 3 times in that span all unanimous decisions. This is definitely the easiest weightclass to predict.

Predictions Part 2 Top 2 to qualify for the Olympics in all men's weightclasses. Men's 51kg Gold- Hasanboy Dusmatov , Silver- Aaron Jude Babo , Bronze- Tomoya Tsuboi , Azat Makhmetov. Other Olympic calibre boxers- Po Wei Tu , Thitisan Panmot , Deepak Bhoria , Saken Bibibossinov . Straight off the bat, we have a ridiculously uneven draw. The top of this bracket sees an opening round fight between Chonryong So and former (failed) Kazakh Azat Makhmetov in a fight that will probably ultimately decide a bronze medal. The second bracket is fascinatingly poised and with the weakness of the top bracket will likely decide an Olympic place. The first round sees Asian under 22 champions Aaron Jude Babo face Thitisan Panmot in what could prove the deciding fight for an Olympic quota. Po Wei Tu had an impressive run to the quarter finals of this years world championships and likely awaits the winner in the last 16. The winner of that fight will then likely see home boxer Jiamao Zhang in the quarter final stage. The best four boxers in this draw are all likely on the bottom half of this draw but that can just be how it goes. Former Bantamweight world champion Tomoya Tsuboi will almost certainly face controversial Indian selection and world bronze medallist Deepak Bhoria (I for one think selecting him over former world champion and commonwealth champion Amit Panghal is perfectly reasonable regardless of the outomce of the Tsuboi fight but I'm sure the Indians here will have something to say about it especially if he loses.). The winner will probably face Nurzhigit Diushebaev who Deepak beat at the quarter final stage of world championships earlier this year. The ridiculous element of this draw is seeing probably the two top ranked flyweights in the world Saken Bibbosinov and Hasanboy Dusmatov meet in the last 16. Bibbosinov does have to beat surprise Mongolian selection Unubold Orkhontungalag (Ekhmandakh Kharkuugiin was an Asian bronze medallist at this weight last year while Orkhontungalag lost in the minimumweight prelims) and Dusmatov, Sehyeong Jo first. Dusmatov won this fight in the Asian final last year and is reigning world champion although Bibossinov won this fight on his way to winning the 2021 world title. This is the first of many potential blockbuster Uzbek vs Kazakh matchups. I've gone for Dusmatov based off recent form but either of them could win this. I also would definitely not rule out Deepak or Tsuboi shocking the winner in a semi final. Men's 57kg Gold- Abdumalik Khalokov , Silver- Makhmud Sabyrkhan , Bronze- Daniyal Shahbakhsh , Asror Vokhidov . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Munarbek Seitbek Uulu , Mohamed Abu Jajeh , Carlo Paalam , Sachin , Rujakron Juntrong . The top of this draw throws up some fascinating fights with flyweight Olympic bronze medallist Carlo Paalam(I know he is naturally a bantamweight but it is bizarre that he has opted to come up to featherweight rather than go down to flyweight again) facing Mohammad Abu Jajeh of Jordan who is Asian champion and world bronze medallist at lightweight. It is about as big of a size mismatch as you get and both are excellent boxers so it should be a fascinating fight. The winner of that fight will face world bronze medallist Munarbek Seitbek Uulu in another quality fight. These interesting matchups will likely be made completely redundant with world champion Abdumalik Khalokov almost certainly waiting in the quarter finals. Khalokov's likely opponent in the semis is Daniyal Shahbakhsh who he beat in the 60kg world championship semi finals in 2021. Shahbakhsh faces home boxer Ping Lyu in the last 32 before another size mismatch fight in the quarter finals against Sachin who surprisingly got selected over world and asian bronze medallist Mohamed Hussamuddin. In the bottom half of the draw the weakest bracket will likely see Tajikistan get themselves a medal through world quarter finallist Asror Vokhidov. His biggest test will be a likely quarter final against either Lundaa Gantumur or Shudai Harada . However bantamweight world champion Makhmud Sabyrkhan is the massive favourite to take the second Olympic quota. Getting himself selected ahead of Serik Termizhanov and Orazbek Assylkulov (who beat Khalokov at Strandja) is perhaps more impressive than his bantamweight world title. Anyway his path involves South and North Korean boxers before a probable quarter final against Rujakron Juntrong. This would obviously set up an Uzbek vs Kazakh final. Men's 63.5kg Gold-Ruslan Abdullaev , Silver- Shiva Thapa , Bronze- Bunjong Sinsiri , Chu en Lai . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Bakhodur Usmonov , Chinzorig Baartarsukh . The top of this draw is very barren of talent with Asian bronze medallist Chu en Lai the only notable boxer in one bracket and Asian silver medallist Shiva Thapa the only notable one in the other. Chu's toughest fight before the semi finals will either be against home boxer Xiaoyang Wang or youngster Mark Ashley Fajardo . Chu is not likely to qualify though. Shiva Thapa meanwhile has only one even remotely challenging fight in the last 16 against Askat Kultaev . The third bracket sees reigning welterweight Asian champion Bunjong Sinsiri who faces a whole lot of nothing. His tough prelim fight may well be a quarter final against Cholman Choe . If most of the draw is quite weak then the bottom of the draw must be and is absolutely loaded. 3 of the 4 world medallists this year are all here plus Yertugen Zeinullinov (Probably be the weakest of the Kazakh boxers though) and Olympian Obada Al Kasbeh . The winner of the Zeinullinov Al Kasbeh fight will face Bakhodur Usmonov in the last 16. The other last 16 fight will almost certainly see a repeat of this years world championships final between Ruslan Abdullaev and Chinzorig Baartarsukh. This draw is ridiculously harsh on Baartarsukh who should end up being one of the favourites to medal in Paris. Abdullaev vs Usmonov should be an excellent fight too in an at this point hypothethical quarter final. Abdullaev while he is world champion couldn't really have asked for a tougher draw almost certainly meeting the 2nd, 3rd and 4th ranked boxers on his way to the final. The one most likely to beat him is probably the somewhat unknown Bunjong Sinsiri and if there is a men's weight where neither the Uzbeks nor the Kazakhs make the final it might be this one. Men's 71kg Gold- Aslanbek Shimbergenov , Silver- Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov , Bronze- Nishant Dev , Nuradin Rustambek Uulu . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Zeyad Eashash , Sewonrets Okazawa , Asadkhuja Muyddhinkujaev . Well, This is the most uneven draw of the lot and it's not close. I did not expect to be picking Turkmenistan to get an Olympic quota here but well I am. The top bracket of this draw sees Asian bronze medallist Nuradin Rustambek Uulu fight absolutely nobody even worth mentioning on his to way to at least a bronze medal. The second bracket isn't much better but does have some I suppose "international" calibre boxers. Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov has a straightforward last 32 fight before coming up against Nidal Foqahaa in the last 16 prior to a likely quarter final against Peerapat Yeseungden . All three of these boxers won at least one fight at world championships but Nurmuhammedov's wins were the most impressive. Picking him to beat the much more established Rustambek Uulu might prove a bad choice but Rustambek Uulu really isn't particularly good. (I will be so annoyed if I got this pick wrong). Anyway all the actual talent is in the bottom half of the draw. The third bracket sees Asian silver medallist Zeyad Eashash face the awkward former world welterweight champion Sewonrets Okazawa. Eashash beat Okazawa last year for what its worth. That will set up a likely quarter final against world bronze medallist Nishant Dev which is a tough one to call given how inconsistent Eashash tends to be. We have another early Kazakhstan Uzbekistan matchup in the final bracket with reigning Asian and world champion Aslanbek Shimbergenov facing welterweight world champion Asadkhuja Muyddhinkujaev. Both are excellent boxers and I honestly have no idea who will win this fight. Men's 80kg Gold- Turabek Khabibullaev , Silver- Eumir Marcial , Bronze- Nurbek Oralbay , Ahmad Ghossoun . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Hussein Iashaish , Tanglatihan Tuohetaerbieke , Weerapon Jongjoho . Its amazing how many of these draws seem so unbalanced. So the top of this draw sees last year's world youth champion Turabek Khabibullaev almost certainly face last year's Asian champion and two time Olympian Hussein Iashaish. I'm backing the youngster here. Then we have yet another case where the two world championship finalists face off in the opening round. Nurbek Oralbay prevailed on a narrow split decision on that occasion although of course Tanglatihan Tuoheaebieke now has home advantage. I'll stick with Oralbay but I don't feel comfortable with that one. He will face the winner of Lakshya Chahar against Asian bronze medallist Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu . Regardless of the different potential outcomes here it sets up a fascinating semi final for the quota spot. I don't entirely trust Oralbay so I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here and say the young Uzbek wins it. On the bottom half of the draw sees Asian medallist at 75kg Seyedshahin Mousavi face Shabbos Negmattuloev in what should be a good last 16 fight. The winner will likely face Arabian champion Ahmad Ghossoun in a hypothethical quarter final. Mousavi and Ghossoun met twice in 2018/2019 with each getting one win apiece. Eumir Marcial hasn't boxed as an amateur since winning bronze in Tokyo but in theory has a fairly straightforward route to an Olympic quota here. He faces Dalai Ganzorig (who doesn't seem to have boxed outside Mongolia before) in his first fight before facing a vietnamese boxer who he has beaten multiple times before in the last 16. His quarter final will likely be against former world middleweight medallist Weerapon Jongjoho. I have to say this feels like one of the toughest weightclasses to predict. Men's 92kg Gold- Lazizbek Mullujonov , Silver- Arslanbek Achilov , Bronze-Odai Al Hindawi ,John Marvin Noble . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Sagyndyk Togambay . Lazizbek Mullojonov won last years superheavyweight Asian title but has moved back down to heavyweight to accommodate the return of Bakhodir Jalolov. He opens up is tournament here against Sanjeet before a quarter final against home boxer Han Xuezhen . He should breeze threw both of these fairly handily. The second bracket sees surprise Kazkakh selection Sagyndyk Togambay (Aibek Oralbay won this event at last years Asian champs) opens up against Bariakhaan Dorj (who also doesn't seem to have boxed outside Mongolia before) before facing Odai Al Hindawi in a likely quarter final who he lost to at last years cruiserweight Asian champs. Al Hindawi himself does have to come through Asian bronze medallist Toufan Sharifi first. The third bracket is quite weak and will see John Marvin Noble almost certainly beating Rabin Nepal (That can't actually be his name can it (I mean there are Irish people with the surname Ireland but even still)(They aren't really Irish though)) (Google says Nepal is a real surname). (That was a weird tangent). and Jaemin Jeong . The last bracket is a battle of the smaller stans. Arslanbek Achilov doesn't seem to have boxed since 2018 but back then he was half decent boxer meets Davlat Boltaev who made the quarter finals at world champs this year in the last 16. The winner then faces 86kg Asian bronze medallist Erkin Adylbek Uulu in a quarter final. All three of them could medal and by extension secure an Olympic quota (I would pick any of them over Noble) but bizarrely for the second time I'm backing a Turkmenistani boxer to qualify albeit based off results he had five years ago.

Right prediction time. My hit rate on qualifiers at European Games was 25/44 (56.8%) and at the African Olympic qualifying tournament it was 9/18 (50%- Should have been higher but for some dodgy judging). So again first of all, the usual fun that comes with unseeded draws. (There is a slightly under 50 50 chance that the best two boxers in any weight class in an unseeded draw so close to half of these won't have the best two boxers actually make the final. So just under 25% of the qualifiers where only the finallists qualify are "wrong". (I could figure out the number for the events with 4 qualifiers but the maths gets much more complex) The combination of most of these only offering two qualifying spots and unseeded draws is surprisingly disastrous but sure anyway.) Starting with the women. Obviously I have virtually no guage watsoever on the North Korean boxers although historically they do tend to qualify a couple of boxers to the Olympics. Women's 50kg Gold- Nikhat Zareen, Silver- Nazym Kyzaibay , Bronze- Wu Yu ,Tsukimi Namiki , Other Olympic calibre boxers-Aira Villegas, Sabina Bobukulova , Thi Tham Nguyen ,Chuthamat Raksat . Certainly one of the more interesting weight classes. At the top of the draw Nazym Kyzaibay has a relatively straightforward path to the semifinals with only Aira Villegas potentially offering much resitance. Wu Yu is reigning world champion (Obviously take all of this year's world champs results with many grains of salt) at 52kg and starts off against North Korean opposition and then likely faces Sabina Bobukulova who is reigning Asian under 22 champion but has basically no results at senior level yet although her getting selected over Aziza Yokubova indicates she must be at least decent. On the other side of the draw last years Asian silver medallist Tsukimi Namiki fights Chuthamat Raksat in what effectively serves as a qualifying fight given the quality of the boxers they would face in a quarter final. While most of this draw was fairly even last years Asian champion and world silver medalist Thi Tham Nguyen gets a nightmare draw with world champion Nikhat Zareen in the only round of 32 fight in this weight class. Nikhat Zareen got one or two questionable close fights go her way at her home world champs so while she starts as favourite here she is only a marginal one. Womens 54kg Gold-Zhaina Shekerbekova ,Silver-Cholmi Pang, Bronze- Hsiao Wen Huang , Nigina Uktamova. Other Olympic calibre boxers Preeti , Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg , Jutamas Jitpong , Yuan Chang , Rinka Kinoshita . Zhaina Shekerbekova is reigning Asian champion and has a fairly straightforward path to the semis with just Preeti offering some level of competition. The second bracket of this draw is chaos. If you had told me before the draw that Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg, Hsiao Wen Huang, Jutamas Jitpong and Yuan Chang were the eventual qualifiers I would have believed that as a perfectly reasonable outcome. Hsiao Wen Huang is reigning world champion so starts as favourite for the qualifying spot although she lost to Shekerbekova at last years Asian champs (So did Jitpong). Jitpong has consistently medalled at this level in recent years but just gets a nightmare draw here. I'm not sure why Yuan Chang has moved up from flyweight to bantamweight and not Wu Yu but sure. Chang is a former flyweight world champion so it feels weird to not pick her as a home boxer but. The bottom half of the draw is weaker but not empty Cholmi Pang was world champion back in 2018 at flyweight but hasn't competed since 2019. She faces Tokyo Olympian Im Aeji in a korean derby followed by likely Thi Ngoc Tran Nguyen . The final qualifier is likely to be Asian under 23 champ Nigina Uktamova although her likely quarter final against Rinka Kinoshita will likely be close. Women's 57kg Gold-Karina Ibragimova ,Silver- Lin Yu ting , Bronze- Xu Zichun , Satsuki Yoshizawa . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Parveen , Nesthy Petecio . Xu Zichun has effectively an qualifying fight against Parveen in the last 16. Parveen was a world medallist and Asian champion in 2022 but at 63.5kg so it is a bit strange to see her pop up on the startlist here but she beat out some 2022 world bronze medallist Manisha for this spot so she must have adjusted to the new weight fairly well. One of the more interesting fights is former* world champion Lin Yu Ting (barring eligibilty issues) against Olympic silver medallist Nesthy Petecio. Karina Ibragimova should retain her asian title here and has as straightforward a draw as possible to make the final with only the unknown element of Jinhyang Paek as a potential stumbling block. Satsuki Yoshizawa does have a win against Olympic champion Sena Irie on her resume but is only really a likely qualifier here based on being on the easy side of the draw. Women's 60kg Gold- Oh Yeonji ,Silver- Wenlu Yang, Bronze-Thananya Somnuek , Wu Shihyi . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Rimma Vollossenko , Ayaka Taguchi , Nominerdene Tugsjargal . The top of this draw is very weak and effectively sees a quarter final battle between Asian under 23 champion Thananya Somnuek against Rizwa Pasuit in a fight that could easily go either way. Oh Yeonji has been the dominant force in Asia at lightweight in recent years especially since Sudaporn Seesondee retired. She opens her tournament against Won Ungyong before a likely quarter final against world bronze medallist Jaismine . Wu Shihyi has a fascinating fight against Rimma Vollossenko in her opening fight in another very even fight on paper. Taguchi and reigning Asian silver medallist Tugsjargal meet in their last 16 fight for the chance to likely face world bronze medallist Wenlu Yang in a hypothethical quarter final. This is one of the weakest weight classes relative to the rest of the world. Women's 66kg (Top 2 to qualify) Gold- Liu Yang ,Silver- Janjaem Suwannapheng , Bronze- Natalya Bogdonova , Nien Chin Chen . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Navbakhor Khamidova . At the top of the draw Natalya Bogdonova has basically no pedigree but Kazakhstan is typically strong at this weightclass and her only competition for a medal is Tsetsegdari Myagmarsuren . The quality in this draw is in the second braket where multiple time world medallist Janjaem Suwannapheng faces reigning Asian Champion (weak field) Navbakhor Khamidova in her last 16 fight. The winner will have an easier quarter final against Mito Kai or Sujin Seo. Yang Liu is reigning world champion (in somewhat controversial circumstances (Imane Khelif )) faces an intriguing path facing Hyoson Hwang followed by 2021 youth world champion Arundhati Choudhary prior to a likely semi final fight against experienced Nien Chin Chen. Women's 75kg (Top 2 to qualify) Gold- Qian Li ,Silver-Lovlina Borgohain , Bronze-Baison Manikon , Diem Quynh Luu . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Valentina Khalzova . There are somewhat surprisingly only nine entries here and thankfully the two likely qualifers are on opposite sides of the draw because otherwise there was the potential for a very weird qualifier here. Baison Manikon should medal against Aziza Zokirova and Erdenatuya Enkhbaatar . Lovlina is world champion albeit with a disproportionate number of the top middleweights being absent due to boycotts. Qian Li is the Olympic silvermedallist and current world bronze medallist*. Valentina Khalzova is a tough draw but one she will likely come through. Unsurprisingly given the lack of entries one of these medals was always going to be weird and here we have a fight between Diem Quynh Luu and Saraswati Rana . Neither of them have a recorded win on boxrec so . While Lovlina did get the decision over Qian Li at world championships, that was a blatant hometown decision and now of course home advantage is reversed so that is not a result I see being repeated here.

Kenya!!!!!!!!!!! Poor Brits. Should have had a straightforward path and now they have to deal with South africa.

https://gym.longinestiming.com/2023/Artistic-17187/en-us/Default

[hide] Knockout Stage September 5th - September 10th, 2023 Third-Place Match Date & Time (GMT +8) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 10th 2023, h. 16:30 Canada 5 United States Final Date & Time (GMT +8) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 10th 2023, h. 20:40 Serbia 2 Germany [/hide]

That was too close. I have never celebrated another boat catching a crab before but I celebrated that French one.

The group stage one is right but they lost 3 consecutive test matches last year (Ireland, Ireland, South Africa)

Don't have time or probably the knowledge to do an extensive preview on this but I am planning to for the other boxing qualification events so might as well try and predict the qualifiers here if nothing else. Mens 51kg- Patrick Chinyemba (Mortaji ) Mens 57kg- Soulaimaine Samghouli (Sigauque ) Mens 63.5kg- Jugurtha Ait Bekka (Commey ,Richarno Colin , Nadir ) Mens 71kg- Steve Kulenguluka Mbiya (Clair , Muxanga , Zimba , Rabii ) Mens 80kg- Peter Pita Kabeji (Assaghir , Ngammissengue , Orabi Abdelgawwad ) Mens 92kg- Adam Olaore (Kebe , Houmri ) Mens 92+kg- Serge Mvogo Amougou Zacharie (Hafez ) Womens 50kg- Roumaysa Boualam , Yasmie Mouttaki (Ngoune ) Womens 54kg- Sara Haghigat Joo , Fatma Abdelkader Hedjala (Bertal ) Womens 57kg- Matshu Marcelot Sakobi , Phiwokule Mnguni (Kenosi , Khouloud ) Womens 60kg- Hadjila Khelif , Felistars Nkandu (Amine ) Womens 66kg- Imane Khelif (If she is eligible), Alcinda Dos Santos (Brigitte , Gomes Moreira , Bel Ahbib ). Highest quality women's event here by a mile. Womens 75kg- Rady Gramane (El Mardi , Mbata ) Apologies for any misspelled/ misordered names.

This starts tomorrow and yet can anyone find a draw sheet anywhere?

I wouldn't rule out the womens four. You never know if conditions get a bit easier or something. While I would be hopeful of a spot at FOQR if they miss out. I certainly wouldn't be calling it this early. Also wouldn't rule France out tomorrow in the lightweight double. B finals can get weird. What you have outlined are the most likely outcomes but I just wouldn't be so sure we actually see them.

So my hit rate on finalists was 63/84 which is 75%. Of the 72 boats that have secured qualification at this point 11 weren't ranked in a qualifying position although positively no nation had multiple boats fall into this category which there wasn't any fundamental flaws with my rankings. 61/72 (84.7%) in terms of boats qualified at this point is probably a little dissapointing given that the last few qualifying spots are likely to be more volatile. There are gauranteed to be at least 8 more boats that werent ranked in a qualifying position that will qualify. Therefore the absolute best case scenario for my rankings would be a hit rate of 95/114 (83.3%). My target was 80% so I will probably need to get very lucky to hit that.

Yes, They are under the photos and videos tab on the world rowing championships page. Tricky to navigate but they are all there.

[hide] Group Stage September 8th - October 8th, 2023 20 Nations, The 1st and 2nd-Placed Nations from each Group will qualify Quarterfinals Group A Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 8th, h. 21:15 France 10 New Zealand September 9th, h. 13:00 Italy 35 Namibia September 14th, h. 21:00 France 42 Uruguay September 15th, h. 21:00 New Zealand 70 Namibia September 20th, h. 17:45 Italy 8 Uruguay September 21st, h. 21:00 France 64 Namibia September 27th, h. 17:45 Uruguay 22 Namibia September 29th, h. 21:00 New Zealand 7 Italy October 5th, h. 21:00 New Zealand 45 Uruguay October 6th, h. 21:00 France 10 Italy Group B Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 9th, h. 15:30 Ireland 65 Romania September 10th, h. 17:45 South Africa 7 Scotland September 16th, h. 21:00 Ireland 35 Tonga September 17th, h. 17:00 South Africa 65 Romania September 23rd, h. 21:00 South Africa 3 Ireland September 24th, h. 17:45 Scotland 28 Tonga September 30th, h. 21:00 Scotland 58 Romania October 1st, h. 21:00 South Africa 32 Tonga October 7th, h. 21:00 Ireland 10 Scotland October 8th, h. 17:45 Tonga 25 Romania Group C Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 9th, h. 18:00 Australia 12 Georgia September 10th, h. 21:00 Wales 3 Fiji September 16th, h. 17:45 Wales 39 Portugal September 17th, h. 17:45 Australia 5 Fiji September 23rd, h. 14:00 Georgia 15 Portugal September 24th, h. 21:00 Wales 7 Australia September 30th, h. 17:45 Fiji 3 Georgia October 1st, h. 17:45 Australia 42 Portugal October 7th, h. 15:00 Wales 5 Georgia October 8th, h. 21:00 Fiji 24 Portugal Group D Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 9th, h. 21:00 England 9 Argentina September 10th, h. 13:00 Japan 15 Chile September 16th, h. 15:00 Samoa 27 Chile September 17th, h. 21:00 England 5 Japan September 22nd, h. 17:45 Argentina 6 Samoa September 23rd, h. 17:45 England 33 Chile September 28th, h. 21:00 Japan 2 Samoa September 30th, h. 15:00 Argentina 38 Chile October 7th, h. 17:45 England 2 Samoa October 8th, h. 13:00 Japan 3 Argentina Top 3 Place 1st Place 2nd Place 3rd Place Nation Ireland France Argentina [/hide]

Bro I linked the qualifying document for a reason. I know that is what I understood the rule but it explicitly says this isn't the case.

[hide] Knockout Stage September 5th - September 10th, 2023 4 Nations, The Winning Nations from each Semifinal will qualify for the Final. The Losers of each Semifinal will play the Third-Place Match. Semifinals Date & Time (GMT +8) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 8th 2023, h. 16:45 Serbia 5 Canada September 8th 2023, h. 20:40 United States 8 Germany [/hide]

It is overall. No gender related rules at all.

I thought the rule was that 1. if you want to qualify two boats at a continental qualifier they had to both win their respective event and you can't have any previous boats qualified but according to the current version of the qualifying document neither of those are now the case. https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/Paris-2024/Paris2024-QS-Rowing.pdf?_ga=2.162527548.1298230565.1694115107-1188876414.1686749288 This seems to suggest that if you don't have any boats already qualified you can qualify two as long as their within the quota and if you have one boat already qualified you can qualify more than one extra boat if multiple boats win. Although as I say this was not my understanding of the rules.