Just to add to the discussion going on about participation numbers, we had 83 participants in London. If the women's 4x400 relay team qualifies and the golfers qualify and a couple more boxers qualify, we'll get to something like 106-108. That is an increase of 23-25 participants.
Now, that number of 23-25 may look large, but remember that 16 of that is contributed by the women's hockey team and 5 by the women's relay team - both of them sure to be also-rans at the olympics. So, realistically, those 21 athletes actually translate to just 2 quotas, just 2 more events we will be participating in. Further, 2-3 spots will be contributed by Golf which was not a part of London to begin with.
Is that really such an improvement over London, even in participation terms, let alone medal terms ?? Dont think so..Given a choice, I personally would have preferred a contingent of, say, 87, which included the men's archery team than a contingent of 106 which includes 2 also-ran teams.
So, realistically, the strength of this contingent is very similar to the London contingent. Even in terms of medal prospects, I predict we'll end up with 5-7 medals, as opposed to the lofty prediction of 10 by the babus.
I feel Jitu and Narsingh are the top level medal prospects and I expect a medal from each of them.
Narsingh proved his pedigree at the world champs (and I read somewhere that at world champs, Jordan Borroughs seeked Narsingh out and said that Narsingh was the only one Borroughs was worried about. If true, that is a huge endorsement).
Jitu's sport is a highly unpredictable sport but he is just an extremely consistent shooter. Even when he doesn't qualify for finals in world cups, he is always at least in the top 15 and within touching distance of qualifying. At the Olympics, where the size of the field will be much smaller, I expect him to make both finals and hopefully return with at least one medal.
Then we have the strong medal contenders - Bindra, Gagan, Women Archery Team, Yogeshwar, Saina, Shiva Thapa - I feel the medal chances for this bunch is around 50% - so let's say we get 3 medals from among these 6.
And then we have the medal hopefuls - all other shooters (including 2nd medal for Jitu), Sandeep Tomar, the 3 female wrestlers, whichever boxers qualify, Dipa, Sindhu, Srikanth, Deepika, Atanu, Bops/Sania, Bops/Paes, Mirabai, men's hockey team - these athletes need to have the performance of their lives at Rio to snatch a medal (just like Vijay Kumar had at London and Joydeep Karmarkar almost did) - not all of them are at the same level (Sindhu has more of a chance than Bops/Paes for example) but hoping for 1 surprise medal from this group
That brings the tally to 6, same as London...