India National Thread

[Prashanth 175]

Just went through Volleyball Olympic qualification and found that India has a great chance to enter the final qualification rounds for the first time.

Top 24 not qualified after continental championships plus the host go into qualifying rounds. 6 groups each of 4 teams and the top team in each group qualifying for the Olympics. Looks the best system for Olympic qualifications.

Indian men team are at 38 place in 2017 ranking list and has time till Jan 2019 to come inside top 31 to make the cut.

But the sorry state of Indian volleyball meant that our ranking would have crashed badly and would be rock bottom on Jan 2019. So unfortunate that our team had best chance to be playing for a spot and not making it.

Edited October 16, 2018 by Prashanth

[sameerph 5]

12 hours ago, kapil857 said:

 

Hope you are right but I'll believe the hype when I see performance at the senior level. Just looking at the numbers provided by you, it seems to me that the only real gain has been shooting.

 

And shooting is a gain no doubt - as a country we have definitely improved from where we were in 2014. But I at least am hoping to see those gains in 2020 itself as opposed to 2024. 

 

Still - I personally dont believe in the methodology of counting junior medals at all. Fact is, in today's sporting landscape, youngsters across the world are maturing faster. The best juniors are already competing in the seniors and most of them stop competing in juniors once they graduate to seniors (like our own Sania had done when she was 16). Indian juniors however keep competing in junior events even after having already made a significant mark at the senior level (like Manu, Mehuli, Saurabh etc) as even those wins are starting to make them stars.

 

Then of course there is always the huge issue of age-fudging. Also, by nature, junior athletes are essentially competing against a field of athletes born in a 2-yr period which is small competition as compared to seniors. 

 

Also, if some sort of analysis is done, I would venture a guess that it would be found that 18-yr olds winning an U18 world title rarely make it to the absolute elite level in seniors (because the title is often won with the best 18-yr olds absent and already competing in the seniors). However, a 15-16 yr old winning an U18 title wud have a much better chance.

 

Yes, your point about 2-year period field for juniors in very important. I think for seniors we need to consider 10 year period as average. So, conversion from junior medals to senior medals has to be around 1/5th or so. Therefore, 24 medals at junior world champiionships would mea around 5-6 medals at senior level. That was our level already at London 2012. 

 

Another point is we had 8 medals in youth olympics 8 years back. None of those medalists have gone on to get anywhere close to being medalists in olympics and that 8 medal haul got converted to only 2 medals in Rio 2016.

 

So, we have to be cautious about extrapolating these youth olympic medals and say that we will go to 10 medals level in 2024 olympics. First up I want us to get back r 6 medal level at Tokyo and then see how much we can improve over it by 2024.

[kapil857 31]

4 hours ago, sameerph said:

 

Yes, your point about 2-year period field for juniors in very important. I think for seniors we need to consider 10 year period as average. So, conversion from junior medals to senior medals has to be around 1/5th or so. Therefore, 24 medals at junior world champiionships would mea around 5-6 medals at senior level. That was our level already at London 2012. 

 

Another point is we had 8 medals in youth olympics 8 years back. None of those medalists have gone on to get anywhere close to being medalists in olympics and that 8 medal haul got converted to only 2 medals in Rio 2016.

 

So, we have to be cautious about extrapolating these youth olympic medals and say that we will go to 10 medals level in 2024 olympics. First up I want us to get back r 6 medal level at Tokyo and then see how much we can improve over it by 2024.

 

Completely agreed. Junior achievements always need to be taken with a grain of salt. We in India tend to go overboard with them.

[Prashanth 175]

Actually the point is how you nurture them and treat them, example was Khade if sponsors or job security was provided he would have been a outstanding swimmer and more medals would have achieved. I always say the moment career security is provided all will improve. Money once poured would drastically improve the results. A sport like Kabbadi where one gets 1.5cr for 4 months is a wonderful moment. 7 players getting 1cr mark is a great thing. then you can attract youngsters to the game. See very soon new stars will emerge and already there.

Same we need to pour money and these youngsters need proper guidance and training to enhance their performance. Diet and proper training with correct security is the need of the hour which India don't provide. Hence there is no proper transition happening.

[Prashanth 175]

Indians in Action Today

 

ATP 250 Tour

European Open:- Paes/Miguel, Divj/Artem play in Rd1

Stockholm Open:- Jeevan/Ariel play in Rd1

 

ATP Challenger Tour

Ningbo :- Prajnesh plays in Rd2

                Sumit, Saketh loose in Rd1

                Sriram/Saketh, Prajnesh/Arjun , Sumit/Ramkumar play in Rd1

Wolffkran:- Purav/Antonio play in QF

 

BWF Denmark Open 2018

MS:-

WS:-

MD:-

WD:-

XD:-

 

ITF Tennis

Egypt:-

China:-

Egypt:-

Tunisia:-

 

[Prakash 50]

Praveen Chitravel Clinches Bronze Triple Jump at Youth Olympic Games

[Prashanth 175]

Indians in Action Today

 

ATP 250 Tour

European Open:- Paes/Miguel loose in Rd1 

                           Divj/Artem move into QF

Stockholm Open:- Jeevan/Ariel loose in Rd1

 

The CJ Cup PGA Nine Bridges - Rd1

S  Sharma

 

Buick LPGA Shanghai - Rd1

A  Ashok

 

ATP Challenger Tour

Ningbo :- Prajnesh moves into QF

               Sriram/Saketh, Prajnesh/Arjun move into QF 

               Sumit/Ramkumar loose in Rd1

Wolffkran:- Purav/Antonio move into SF

 

BWF Denmark Open 2018

MS:- Srikanth, Sameer play in Rd2

WS:- Saina plays in Rd2

WD:- Ashwini/Sikki play in Rd2

 

ITF Tennis

Egypt:-

China:-

Egypt:-

Tunisia:-

 

Edited October 18, 2018 by Prashanth

[Prashanth 175]

Akash Malik gets Silver in Archery at YOG 2018. India finish the campaign with 3 - 9 -1 = 13 medals.

[nitinsanker 202]

On 16/10/2018 at 18:15, sameerph said:

 

Yes, your point about 2-year period field for juniors in very important. I think for seniors we need to consider 10 year period as average. So, conversion from junior medals to senior medals has to be around 1/5th or so. Therefore, 24 medals at junior world champiionships would mea around 5-6 medals at senior level. That was our level already at London 2012. 

 

Another point is we had 8 medals in youth olympics 8 years back. None of those medalists have gone on to get anywhere close to being medalists in olympics and that 8 medal haul got converted to only 2 medals in Rio 2016.

 

So, we have to be cautious about extrapolating these youth olympic medals and say that we will go to 10 medals level in 2024 olympics. First up I want us to get back r 6 medal level at Tokyo and then see how much we can improve over it by 2024.

 

First I was referring to world championship medals and not youth olympic medals 

 

Second you cannot  produce good senior results without good junior results , Please show me any country which dominates senior world  championships/ olympics in a sport  who does not do well at the junior level in that sport , so junior results are a precursor to senior results .....and hence to Olympic results. so it is critical to do well at junior level first .....

 

Third I do appreciate the point that the juniors are in 2-3 year time frame while the seniors have a 10 year time frame , so the indian team needs to do consistently well ( produce 24 medals consistently at least for 6-10 years to get that level of senior / olympic performance )...... also from the 4-5 junior players 1 or 2 senior players may come ..... so every junior player may not become a good senior player but almost every great senior player was a great junior player ........ check it out 

 

Sania - Junior World championship Gold 

Sindhu - Junior world championship silver 

Yogeshwar - cadet world champion in wrestling 1999 lodz  

Sushil - Cadet world champion in wrestling  1999 lodz 

 

shooting unfortunately the junior championships were not regularly conducted till recently 

so from the crop of great junior players over a 5-6 competitions you would get 1 great senior level player especially in sports like wrestling or boxing

 

Edited October 18, 2018 by nitinsanker

[kapil857 31]

17 hours ago, nitinsanker said:

 

First I was referring to world championship medals and not youth olympic medals 

 

Second you cannot  produce good senior results without good junior results , Please show me any country which dominates senior world  championships/ olympics in a sport  who does not do well at the junior level in that sport , so junior results are a precursor to senior results .....and hence to Olympic results. so it is critical to do well at junior level first .....

 

Third I do appreciate the point that the juniors are in 2-3 year time frame while the seniors have a 10 year time frame , so the indian team needs to do consistently well ( produce 24 medals consistently at least for 6-10 years to get that level of senior / olympic performance )...... also from the 4-5 junior players 1 or 2 senior players may come ..... so every junior player may not become a good senior player but almost every great senior player was a great junior player ........ check it out 

 

Sania - Junior World championship Gold 

Sindhu - Junior world championship silver 

Yogeshwar - cadet world champion in wrestling 1999 lodz  

Sushil - Cadet world champion in wrestling  1999 lodz 

 

shooting unfortunately the junior championships were not regularly conducted till recently 

so from the crop of great junior players over a 5-6 competitions you would get 1 great senior level player especially in sports like wrestling or boxing

 

 

Just some counterpoints

 

"Please show me any country which dominates senior world  championships/ olympics in a sport  who does not do well at the junior level in that sport"

 

I have not done any analysis but my first guess here would be USA. Does MUCH better in senior events than junior events, just from what it seems to me. Of course, this doesn't mean they have no junior champs. But in terms of volume and frequency of achievements, especially when compared with other sporting powers, USA wud be found lagging in juniors. I think one of the reasons for that is their inter-collegiate program is excellent. So many stars are discovered only in college, as opposed to in high school. Another prominent example would be Australia. I wud even venture a guess that many European countries, led by UK, wud also follow that template - senior performance better than junior is terms of volume and frequency.

 

"so every junior player may not become a good senior player but almost every great senior player was a great junior player"

 

Not exactly. I'd say every great senior player was at least a "good" junior player. And when u change that distinction, the pool becomes much wider and u dont really know who wud go on to become big.  

 

One of the examples I have heard is of Roger Federer. In the juniors, Federer was doubles partner to a guy named Oliver Rochus. Between the two, Rochus was generally considered the far more talented and many people, including Federer's own coach, used to laugh at Federer when he dreamt of becoming the best in the world. Well, we all know how that played out...

 

Another example is our own Srikanth. OGQ had picked Praneeth over him to support when they were young, but they were proved wrong. Viren has even sort of said that it was a mistake but there's no way to avoid it, as Praneeth was much better in the junior days.

 

For me, a far better metric would be when someone graduated to the seniors. Manu Bhaker for eg doesn't have too many junior achievements to show before already being big in seniors. She just waltzed into the senior team at the beginning of the year from nowhere. Hima Das was already India's senior best when she won the U20 world champs. And just abt a year before, she was trying to become a sprinter. A couple of years earlier, she wasn't even into athletics.

 

"shooting unfortunately the junior championships were not regularly conducted till recently "

 

Well that is just not true. They have been conducted since 1994. We won our first junior gold through Navanath Faratade in 2006. Based on a recent interview of him, by around 2008, he was nowhere near national reckoning and essentially quit professional shooting soon after that (though he goes to the annual nationals till today).

 

 "so from the crop of great junior players over a 5-6 competitions you would get 1 great senior level player especially in sports like wrestling or boxing"

 

Yes that is probably the more likely conversion rate. Unfortunately doesn't add up to "I believe in statistics if we have 20-24 medals today 5-6 years from today we will have at least 12-15 medals at the senior olympics".

 

To provide an extreme analogy, I was recently thinking that winning a junior world title is may be like topping ur 10th standard board exams. It is an absolutely magnificent achievement, but a new guy/girl does it every year. And while many (though definitely not all) of them will have successful fruitful careers, extremely few of those toppers will go on to become the CEO of a large MNC (which is what an olympic medal is).

 

Can we still hit double digits in 2024 ?? Absolutely. But we may even end up like Rio. Its just too far away to pass judgement. Either way, I wud much rather look to senior results for indicators than junior results.

 

And if we are lucky and these next two years go really well, and with Tokyo being very hot during August, I am hoping for at least 6-8 medals in Tokyo itself. Lot will depend on shooting though.