Team GB Daily: Day 16

[Mkbw50 475]

Yeah thanks everyone 

 

Cycling track judo modern pentathlon and swimming probably the big disappointments for me but the first three are based on vibes because I don’t watch them regularly and the second two are based on luck 

 

Rowing is back, equestrian still good, and in context it’s still pretty good because we used to win this many golds on a good games and this many medals in total 

 

I hope we improve though and also have a better performance compared to Beijing in Milan

[Mkbw50 475]

2 hours ago, Epic Failure said:

I just hate the 2 week wait until the Paralympics start. Don't want to go back to normal life.

 

Not having a Commonwealths in 26 sucks as well. Normally that's a lovely mid point in cycles.

Chengdu 2025 I will be there no matter what

[Epic Failure 365]

Just now, G-ann said:

I’m tempted to also work out the ages of both medalists and those who came in real close. Just as I have a feeling that some of the near misses were athletes competing for the first time or are on the younger side of things. Appreciate it’s not always a measure of likely success but hopefully an indication of things to come. But I want the data first before throwing a wild theory round! 

So take this with a huge grain of salt because it is only my opinion, but I reckon that 88 of our 135 top 8 finishes have a strong chance of being back in LA. 

 

Of that 88, 40 of our 65 medalists could reasonably return, including 12 of our golds.

 

My vague methodology to work it out was removing anyone who would be over 30 in 2028, or potentially even younger in some sports (ie swimmers and gymnasts sometimes retire competitively by the time they are 25). I've also positively included teams like rowers, where we always seem to find someone who will be at least competitive in most disciplines. Same with athletics relays etc.

 

I've been cautious in my thinking, erring on the side of ruling someone out if I thought there was any doubt.

 

Obviously there will undoubtedly be some of the athletes who will make it who are older and some younger who won't. But it is a good starting point to consider. This definitely was not a team of grizzled veterans.

 

 

[Epic Failure 365]

Also, someone posted earlier in another thread a tweet from a fairly reliable journalist that Glasgow might be taking over the Commonwealths in 2026. That would be huge if true.

[Olympicsnell 333]

10 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

Also, someone posted earlier in another thread a tweet from a fairly reliable journalist that Glasgow might be taking over the Commonwealths in 2026. That would be huge if true.

Yes...tbc this month i believe, a slimmed down version, which lets be honest it got too big for what it was

 

Am also a huge fan of the multisport european championships which i hope gets an exciting host in 26

Edited August 11, 2024 by Olympicsnell

[Rich 31]

Life has kept me busy for most of the last 24 hours so apologies if I'm repeating something somebody else had said but, on this issue of a drop in the number of gold, I think some of the response is OTT.

 

UK sport has (rightly) moved away from the so called 'win at all costs' philosophy and this must make a difference.

 

Anecdotally (and it might be unduly influenced by the positivity of people like Finucane, Kerr and MHS or some of the rowers), the people who have missed out on gold have been able to put it in perspective, possibly more so than their contemporaries a decade ago. The people who have been really disappointed are the ones who have significantly underperformed (men's hockey, Molly C). If the the change in emphasis means fewer golds but a happy, smiling Emma Finucane, instead of a broken and depressed Vicky Pendleton self-harming in front of team management then that's surely preferable. Certainly, those two are very different personalities and you can say 'false equivalence', but  VP needed to be looked after and wasn't. You might also tell me that I don't know how these people are feeling behind closed doors and I'd agree.

 

The Aussie sporting attitude means winning is embedded in their identity which must partly explain their neat spread of medals (I note that the disproportionate number of Golds they had has evened out, which reflects the fact you shouldn't judge too early) but even from my distance from Aussie sport, I can recall past high-profile Aussie athletes with serious mental health challenges. I hope that they too are looking out for the wellbeing of their athletes.

 

I also think it was inevitable that our lead over Europe / Australia would shrink because it was based on spending. Given the natural physical gifts of the Dutch, they were always going to be a problem for us. If the Germans start funding certain events more generously then we're in real trouble because they have advantages of wealth, population and, like the Dutch, are taller on average. Equally, the Aussie climate, the natural rise and fall of sporting success and the fact that they were debating Olympic performance in parliament after the last couple of games meant they weren't likely to stay down for long.

 

If these countries get more medals then, leaving aside new sports, we're bound to lose a few.

 

Progress isn't linear and if you thought we were just going to continue getting more and more gold each games until we eventually surpassed America then I think you were being very naive.

Edited August 11, 2024 by Rich

[Medard81 22]

Been keeping my opinions to myself all Olympics cos Ive often been the kiss of death to an Athletes chances with my predictions but probably safe to come out of the woodwork now.

 

I've enjoyed the games from start to finish as always and sad its now come to an end. For GB chances I think we are slightly below what I expected especially the Gold count which I thought would hold up around the 20s mark. Then again we must have been the unluckiest nation for being pipped on the line for top spot in an event that any other day we would have won. The plus side is we have got a decent medal count and grabbed a couple every day so there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

 

My gut feeling about 2028 is we will drop off a bit more maybe to around the 40-50 medal mark with 10-15 Golds but thats still a lot better than what I grew up with when 5 Golds was our average and over 30 medals was a bit of a dream.  But lets see how the next 4 years go and for now just make the most of whats left of Paris 24.

[Epic Failure 365]

10 minutes ago, Olympicsnell said:

Am also a huge fan of the multisport european championships which i hope gets an exciting host in 26

I think losing athletics and swimming from those champs probably makes them less appealing for a host city unfortunately.

 

The European Games being in Turkey in 2027 are obviously going to be important as well, considering the increasing move towards them as a qualification route.

[Epic Failure 365]

My gut for LA is that we'll be somewhere around 50-70 medals, with a gold total somewhere between 12-25 (ie roughly what we have been at all Games since 2008!).

 

The Aussies are bound to have a good Games there as they prepare for Brisbane and with the advantages they have in qualifying routes.

 

The French will still be feeling some benefit from Paris, Japan perhaps less so from Tokyo. I'm not 100% convinced that the Dutch will repeat their performance here. Obviously the great unknown is when - if ever - Russia is allowed back to play.

 

Things like quotas etc will undoubtedly come into play as well, which does make an impact.

 

If push comes to shove, and no Russia, I think we will end up 4th in LA behind the usual 2 and the Aussies.

 

 

[Medard81 22]

24 minutes ago, Olympicsnell said:

Yes...tbc this month i believe, a slimmed down version, which lets be honest it got too big for what it was

 

Am also a huge fan of the multisport european championships which i hope gets an exciting host in 26

Both these events are always good for plugging the gap between Summer Olympics along with the Winter Games so hopefully both will get sorted out. Still no word of a European host though which I hope gets announced soon