GB Athletics

[Orangehair43 285]

1 hour ago, RussB said:

We have debated the relays quite a bit on these forums, and as we approach the games I think the problem is regarding the mixed relay that Amber and Charlie both have a realistic prospect of individual finals AND a medal in the sole sex relays. At this point I’d be really disappointed if we don’t medal in both the men’s and women’s 4x4 relays, plus an individual medal for Matt.

 

is it really fair for them to jeopardise that Olympic outcome by adding another 1 or 2 races (for one of them due to the 1 sub rule) for the mixed? GB will have to make a call on it, but i feel the team is leaning into preserving everyone for indiv finals shots and the sole sex relays towards the end of the meet. I shouted loudly on here we should go all in for gold on the mixed relay, but I do appreciate the significant impact this could have On the rest of the programme

Should they even have taken a spot in the mixed relay if they don’t really want to run in it. 
 

 

The funding being medal based means if they follow that idea they will focus on the mixed vs individual runs. 
 

The Mood music of the whole games matters. By that day it will be either GB doing well or GB underperforming across the board 

Edited July 20, 2024 by Orangehair43

[Epic Failure 359]

1 hour ago, mpjmcevoy said:

the official website has a named mixed team. It's...underwhelming.

 

 

 

The validity of entry lists was shown by the U18 team earlier today, when we substituted someone in even later than the official start list (presuming they had a last minute injury)!

 

That being said, that would be the team you would put out if you were thinking "we don't really care about this". Which would be weird for a federation that seems to be prioritising results over everything these days.

[Orangehair43 285]

2 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

The validity of entry lists was shown by the U18 team earlier today, when we substituted someone in even later than the official start list (presuming they had a last minute injury)!

 

That being said, that would be the team you would put out if you were thinking "we don't really care about this". Which would be weird for a federation that seems to be prioritising results over everything these days.

And is worried about funding cuts. 

[RussB 189]

I don’t really get the half in/out approach. I.e putting Laviai and then one of Charlie or Amber in plus one other. I doubt that team is good enough to medal but you also burn a few matches for later on in the meet.

 

Matt for all intensive purposes should be taken out of the equation because of individual hopes.

 

But for the rest of the team I’d want to see either an all in approach (with flex to add one of our big guns into the final) or put the above team in to just see how they do.

Edited July 20, 2024 by RussB

[cjsavory 44]

Would it be fair to say that at this point, the overall medal picture looks something like this:

 

Gold Contender, Probable Medal:

 

Hodgkinson, MHS, Kerr, Caudery

 

Medal Contender:

 

W4x100, W4x400, M4x400, Reekie, Muir, KJT

 

Medal Outside Shot:

 

DAS (200M), 800M Men, Gill, Bell, Anning, Mixed 4x400, M4x100

 

Anyone I've missed? Anyone you'd move up/down? (I don't think Dobson or Hughes/Hinchliffe are realistic medal contenders) 

[Olympicsnell 332]

11 minutes ago, cjsavory said:

Would it be fair to say that at this point, the overall medal picture looks something like this:

 

Gold Contender, Probable Medal:

 

Hodgkinson, MHS, Kerr, Caudery

 

Medal Contender:

 

W4x100, W4x400, M4x400, Reekie, Muir, KJT

 

Medal Outside Shot:

 

DAS (200M), 800M Men, Gill, Bell, Anning, Mixed 4x400, M4x100

 

Anyone I've missed? Anyone you'd move up/down? (I don't think Dobson or Hughes/Hinchliffe are realistic medal contenders) 

I think i would move the m4x100 to medal contender.

 

I still have faith hughes can get into some sort of form to challenge for bronze in 100....infact i have more faith in him challenging than i do with dina right now

[Epic Failure 359]

If you don't think Dobson is a realistic medal contender, I'd argue that Anning isn't then either. Charlie is ranked 10th in the world this year. Amber is ranked 9th. I'd say those 2 are about the same. In terms of time, Charlie is actually about a quarter of a second closer to the podium than Amber.

 

Personally I'd swap the men's relays around. The 4x100m if they get the baton round cleanly should be on the podium. I don't see 3 teams better than us. Obviously you can never guarantee the baton going round with any sprint relay but if we are purely talking raw speed, I think you probably would put us on a podium with the US and Italy.

 

On the other hand the 4x4 team has two outstanding legs and then 2 slightly iffy ones. They could be right up there but it wouldn't be crazy if we were in a tough battle for minor medals.

 

If we send out even close to our first choice mixed team (ie a team with Charlie, Amber, Laviai and AN Other) they are strong medal contenders, but obviously as per our discussion that's an unknown.

 

Finally, I'd add Holly Bradshaw into the outside bet camp. She jumped 4.70 last week, which is nothing special but is getting around the distance where the medals have been decided in recent years.

 

I'd also add Hughes into the outside bet category, for his past exploits. 10 flat in what is essentially his first race of the season is solid enough.

 

 

[Epic Failure 359]

4 minutes ago, Olympicsnell said:

I think i would move the m4x100 to medal contender.

 

I still have faith hughes can get into some sort of form to challenge for bronze in 100....infact i have more faith in him challenging than i do with dina right now

Dina's time today was the 5th fastest time this season of those who will be in Paris. It would not shock me at all if the top 3 today in London was the top 3 in Paris.

[RussB 189]

I don't think Amber is even a genuine medal shot at this point given how the event has moved on in the last few months, I hope she can make the final but there are clearly a few ahead of her by a fairly significant margin.

 

Charlie I think is an outside medal shot, but it really is an outside chance given Matt and Quincy at the top end that look like the stand-alones.

 

For me: GOLD shots ( definite medals) = Kerr, Molly, Keely, MHS

Likely medals = Gill +/or Reekie, Bell or Muir, W 4x1, M 4x1 W4x4 M 4x4, KJT (but not gold)

Outside shots of minor medals = mixed relay (OK could be moved up with selection), Burgin / Pattinson, Dobson, Dina (200), Zharnel/Hinchliffe (100) & agree about Holly due to the event not being particularly strong this year + nature of pole vault.

 

I was trying to formulate an argument for a really outside bet in Cindy Semper. Currently ranked only 19th but she is likely just too far away time-wise from the podium despite the surprising hurdles results you get from pressure races occasionally.

 

I think of those outside shots, if we get 2 of those that would be incredible.

[mpjmcevoy 377]

2 hours ago, Epic Failure said:

The validity of entry lists was shown by the U18 team earlier today, when we substituted someone in even later than the official start list (presuming they had a last minute injury)!

 

That being said, that would be the team you would put out if you were thinking "we don't really care about this". Which would be weird for a federation that seems to be prioritising results over everything these days.

Here's the problem - only care about medals ? The best chance is probably the mixed 4 x 4, using Matt, Charlie Dobson, Anna A and Lavaia. That team is probably evens to win the damn thing, certainly in the top 4 favourites - the dutch women are faster, but their men are mediocre, the American's absolutely will not put their top 4 in - no way on earth. The top Irish team are strong, but this team looks stronger. Jamaicas men are week, relatively.

 

But there is also no way Matt would agree to run this. He'd be insane to.

 

So do you put out a decent but not great side, only to finish 5th or 6th, or worse, while a handful of teams prioritise it to get a much desired medal (e,g, the Irish, the dutch) and the American understrength team beats GB understrength team? Or do you give a couple of your squad members a run-out so they can claim to be Olympians, and possibly, possibly, sneak a bronze if everyone does the same?