Who is a lock to win a Gold Medal at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Timezone 27]

23 minutes ago, Josh said:

I’m convinced that half of you don’t understand what a “lock” is 

 

A lot of athletes/teams mentioned are favourites, but hardly locks. 

Gives us an example of what you consider as a lock? 

[Josh 10,504]

41 minutes ago, Timezone said:

Gives us an example of what you consider as a lock? 

Like I said,  Uta Abe in women’s 52kg judo. 
 

I don’t have the time to name all “locks” and provide my reasoning on all events that I disagree with, maybe later I’ll do another reply. Other names I would consider to be “locks” include  Mondo Duplantis in men’s pole vault,  United States women’s basketball, Katie Ledecky in women’s 1500m freestyle (and 800m freestyle if McIntosh isn’t competing in it) and  Summer McIntosh in women’s 400m individual medley*
 

diving team sweeping the Olympic gold medals in diving is certainly possible, but they’ve never done it before. Not to mention that the Budapest 2023 World Champion in men’s 10m was Cassiel Rousseau. Along with that, I’d also give chance to a non-Chinese gold in men’s 10m synchro (been seeing a lot of good things from  Tom Daley at Doha 2024) 

 

In table tennis, is right up there in men’s/women’s team. At Chengdu 2022, Japan took China to a deciding 5th game in the men’s team semifinals, while at Busan 2024, Japan took China to a deciding 5th game in the women’s team final. I also wouldn’t count out in women’s team, they narrowly lost to China in the group stage at Busan 2024 (also a deciding 5th game), although they aren’t very consistent so they might not even make it to a potential encounter against China. 

Edited February 28 by Josh

[Timezone 27]

Just now, Josh said:

Like I said,  Uta Abe in women’s 52kg judo. 
 

I don’t have the time to name all “locks” and provide my reasoning on all events that I disagree with, maybe later I’ll do another reply but of course  Mondo Duplantis in men’s pole vault,  United States women’s basketball, Katie Ledecky in women’s 1500m freestyle (and 800m freestyle if McIntosh isn’t competing in it) and  Summer McIntosh in women’s 400m freestyle.  
 

diving team sweeping the Olympic gold medals in diving is certainly possible, but they’ve never done it before. Not to mention that the Budapest 2023 World Champion in men’s 10m was Cassiel Rousseau. Along with that, I’d also give chance to a non-Chinese gold in men’s 10m synchro (been seeing a lot of good things from  Tom Daley at Doha 2024) 

 

In table tennis, is right up there in men’s/women’s team. At Chengdu 2022, Japan took China to a deciding 5th game in the men’s team semifinals, while at Busan 2024, Japan took China to a deciding 5th game in the women’s team final. I also wouldn’t count out in women’s team, they narrowly lost to China in the group stage at Busan 2024 (also a deciding 5th game), although they aren’t very consistent so they might not even make it to a potential encounter against China. 

Are you kidding Summer Mcintosh in 400m freestyle? Ariarne Titmus just broke World record last year, Summer finished 4th and you calling her a lock. 4x100m freestyle women's relay for Australians is a lock. 

[Dkats 296]

honestly realistically there is heaps of favourites, but only a handful of locks. Upsets happen so often at the Olympics so I’d be more interested in a page predicting upsets.

[Josh 10,504]

14 minutes ago, Timezone said:

Are you kidding Summer Mcintosh in 400m freestyle? Ariarne Titmus just broke World record last year, Summer finished 4th and you calling her a lock. 4x100m freestyle women's relay for Australians is a lock. 

Sorry I meant women’s 400m individual medley 

[Biathlonfan 625]

16 minutes ago, Dkats said:

honestly realistically there is heaps of favourites, but only a handful of locks. Upsets happen so often at the Olympics so I’d be more interested in a page predicting upsets.

I agree with this,someone make an upsets page,it would be way more interesting than this. 

[heywoodu 15,135]

2 hours ago, Josh said:

In table tennis, is right up there in men’s/women’s team. At Chengdu 2022, Japan took China to a deciding 5th game in the men’s team semifinals, while at Busan 2024, Japan took China to a deciding 5th game in the women’s team final. I also wouldn’t count out in women’s team, they narrowly lost to China in the group stage at Busan 2024 (also a deciding 5th game), although they aren’t very consistent so they might not even make it to a potential encounter against China. 

The moment you're even mentioning someone as 'wouldnt count them out', the first one is already not a 'lock' anymore  

[heywoodu 15,135]

1 hour ago, Dkats said:

honestly realistically there is heaps of favourites, but only a handful of locks. Upsets happen so often at the Olympics so I’d be more interested in a page predicting upsets.

But predicting upsets is also....on the edge. Once people mention someone as a possible surprise, that person is barely still a possible surprise  The real surprises and upsets are those winners who nobody mentioned as possible winners, outsiders or anything.

[Biathlonfan 625]

6 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

But predicting upsets is also....on the edge. Once people mention someone as a possible surprise, that person is barely still a possible surprise  The real surprises and upsets are those winners who nobody mentioned as possible winners, outsiders or anything.

It still would be more fun to me to see you guys just trying to randomly select some darkhorse for whatever reason.This ''lock,not lock,what's a lock'' i don't know,who's having fun ?,everyone just seems upset cause no one agrees what a lock is,because very rarely is it so obvious,no one's really gonna have  grounds to argue,if your just pulling an athlete out of nowhere.

 

[heywoodu 15,135]

17 minutes ago, Biathlonfan said:

It still would be more fun to me to see you guys just trying to randomly select some darkhorse for whatever reason.This ''lock,not lock,what's a lock'' i don't know,who's having fun ?,everyone just seems upset cause no one agrees what a lock is,because very rarely is it so obvious,no one's really gonna have  grounds to argue,if your just pulling an athlete out of nowhere.

 

I think the main point of the discussion here could be interesting, as long as it's more a matter of 'Who are the biggest gold medal favourites?' instead of the whole thing about calling it a lock or not