I'm attempting to create a medal projector for the 2026 Olympics. Instead of just listing the top 3 favourites I wanted to give a percentage athletes have to win a medal. My first events completed were downhill, here are the top 10.
Men's Downhill
Athlete
Gold
Silver
Bronze
Total
Marco Odermatt
17%
14%
10%
41%
Franjo Von Allmen
17%
11%
9%
37%
Alexis Monney
10%
9%
9%
28%
Miha Hrobat
8%
9%
8%
25%
Cameron Alexander
7%
9%
7%
23%
Vincent Kriechmayr
7%
7%
6%
20%
Justin Murisier
6%
7%
6%
19%
Dominik Paris
5%
5%
6%
16%
Daniel Hemetsberger
5%
4%
5%
14%
James Crawford
3%
4%
5%
12%
Women's Downhill
Athlete
Gold
Silver
Bronze
Total
Sofia Goggia
27%
15%
12%
54%
Ester Ledecka
13%
11%
9%
33%
Cornelia Huetter
12%
11%
8%
31%
Federica Brignone
11%
12%
11%
34%
Lauren Macuga
9%
9%
8%
26%
Lara Gut-Behrami
6%
8%
9%
23%
Breezy Johnson
5%
7%
7%
19%
Corinne Suter
5%
7%
6%
18%
Laura Pirovano
2%
3%
5%
10%
Marta Bassino
2%
3%
4%
9%
In order to prevent my computer from dying I only ran the simulation 1000 times so no tenth of a percentage is listed. For nations with many athletes I just took the four highest ranked athletes as per event rules and removed the rest. Eventually as NOCs announce their teams I can refine it properly.
Any surprises?
Another big meeting tomorrow from Lievin - First meet to unite the Euro & American circuits.
Late start 19:45 UK Time
https://worldathletics.org/competitions/world-athletics-indoor-tour/news/tsegay-ingebrigtsen-holloway-moon-meeting-lievin-2025
Mixed Team Relay 4x6km
Final Results
France
Julia Simon
Lou Jeanmonnot
Eric Perrot
Emilien Jacquelin
1:04:41.5(1+6)
Czechia
Jessica Jislova
Tereza Vobornikova
Vitezslav Hornig
Michal Krcmar
1:05:55.3(0+9)
Germany
Selina Grotian
Franziska Preuss
Philipp Nawrath
Justus Strelow
1:05:59.9(0+11)
Full Final Result HERE
Men's Team Combined
Final Results
Switzerland
Franjo Von Allmen
Loic Meillard
2:42.38(1:42.11+1:00.27)
Switzerland
Alexis Monney
Tanguy Nef
2:42.65(1:42.09+1:00.56)
Switzerland
Stefan Rogentin
Marc Rochat
2:42.81(1:43.17+59.64)
Full Final Result HERE
They did what the Italians should do, but unfortunately Giacomel has been too inconsistent this season. He has great performances but makes inexplicable mistakes. In any case, Italian biathlon without Vittozzi in great form can count on single podiums at major events at best, nothing more.
Recommended Posts