I believe, the IOC has admitted the cap will have to be relaxed for 2028.   I think they will go with what you proposed. 10,500 for core sports plus some for extra sports

Slovakia   Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2026 Milano Cortina   Ski Sports   Alpine Skiing  (5) - As usual, 3 W & 2 M. Petra Vlhová will be accompanied by 2 other girls, I guess Rebeka Jančová should be one of them, no idea who will be the other one. For the men team, it is going to be again the Žampa bros clan with one last dance for Adam and once again joind by his younger brother Andreas. Cross Country Skiing  (4) - As always in the last couple of games, I expect a Coubertine-like participation in this sport with a perfect Bach-esque gender equality with 2 M and 2 W in order to start in both Team sprints semifinals. Do not ask me the names, I have absolutely no idea Ski Jumping  (2) - There a quite solid chance to finally return in this beautiful sport for Slovakia since the extinction of the dinosaurs. The young Kapustík siblings, Hektor and his sister Kira are the biggest chances for this history making, Among women it would be an absolute premiere, plus there a minor chance that Kira Kapustíková may be, if all planets align perfectly accompanied by another girl Tamara Mesíková. Nordic Combined  (0) - Maybe in Abu Dhabi 2042 or New Trumpopolis 2046 Freestyle Skiing  (1) - Michael Oravec in Freeski Big Air & Slopestyle is the only realistic chance, there some young girls trying ski cross, but still too long way to go here Snowboarding  (2) - Klaudia Medlová once returned from injuries should qualify for her last games in Big Air + Slopestyle. Among men in the same disciplines we may have an olympic debut with Samuel Jaroš. Biathlon  (6) - Hopefully with the returns of Paja Fialková (now Batovská) and Nastya Kuzmina we will win enough points to qualify a full female squad alongside the young Ema Kapustová and one of the Remeňová sisters to form a relay. Among men, the situation is more complicated, I hope at least 2 guys will make it (The biggest chances I see for the young talent Borguľa and maybe Sklenárik to join him) to have at least a mixed relay, a full men relay hope is utopic Ski Mountaineering  (2) - Funny enough, probably our biggest medal chance is this niche sport with Marianna Jagerčíková in W Sprint, alongside her male partner Jakub Šiarnik we should start also in the Mixed relay     Skating Sports   Speed Skating  (1) - There a fresh young czech import who can qualify us for the very first time in this sport, his name is Lukáš Steklý, but since I have zero clue about this sport I can not say how much it is also realistic though Short Track Speed Skating  (0) - Would be nice to have again a participation in this, we have a couple of talented young girls, but still far from the required level, so probably none again Figure Skating  (1) - The young Adam Hagara is our solid chance for participating, he will need a good dose of luck in the process though, and as knowing the good old mathematical laws about the equation between Slovakia and Luck it will end by Zero athletes     Sleigh Sports   Luge  (5) - 2 guys in Singles with the immortal Highlander Ninis, a pair in Doubles and at least one female should qualify, at least I hope so Skeleton  (0) - There one kid trying the stuff, but no chance unless he swithc nationality to Benin or Tuvalu for the free pass Bobsleigh  (1) - Viki Čerňanská I do believe shoud repeat her Olympic experience from Beijing in the monobobs once again     Team Sports   Curling  (0) - lol Ice Hockey  (25) - Embarassement and national mourning avoided, The National pride qualified again and continue the streak of never missing any winter olympic tournament since the independence. With very likely the most talented generation our hockey ever had, Cortina is a great journey we are looking forward. Hail to the god Slafkovský everyone         Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (57) Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (30)   Total Realistic Prediction  -  (50)

I’m no expert on British athletes/sport, but as an avid watcher of a ton of sporting events (not saying you don’t), particularly curling and hockey so I have a few conflicting viewpoints here.   In freestyle skiing, I think your predictions are good but I’d say 3 on the men’s side. Davies in ski cross, and Fenely and Jeannesson in moguls will probably qualify.    In snowboarding, more specifically snowboard cross, I think Nightingale will qualify. FYI there’s no specific qualification pathway for mixed team, you just need to qualify one person per gender.    In curling, I’d have to assume your opinion has changed since the European Championships? British women’s curling didn’t have the greatest of seasons in 2023-24. I personally think it’ll be close; Switzerland, Canada, Sweden, South Korea, United States, Japan (and Italy) for sure. Then a couple of Great Britain, Denmark, Norway, and maybe China or Turkey.    As for hockey…. had to chuckle when I read that because sorry, but your men’s team had no chance at all, especially in the most stacked group of the tournament with both Denmark and Norway… 

Given how tight they've gotten with awarding spots since imposing that 10,500 cap in particular I'm amazed how many non-core team sports they added for LA28. It got to be a bit of a nightmare in several sports for Paris, so unless they increase the cap, the core sports are going to have to cut back even further.   Would be nice if the IOC set one cap for the core sports, and gave the hosts latitude with the non-core sports. If they wanted to go nuts, let 'em, it's their money. If they let LA have Flag Football, I wouldn't rule out anything if Brisbane pushes hard enough.

I think the biggest problem for Australian football is how big the roster size is.   Rugby League Nines might be a more realistic "out there" selection.

If lacrosse can be selected then I don't see why Australian rules football can't be selected if they get Olympic sport recognition. Australia will obviously dominate, but there's enough other nations to make a tournament.   As for netball, a women's only event is still much more likely to be accepted than a men's only event. Australia and the netball federation can spin it as bringing equality to the number of men's and women's events (while obviously ignoring that there will be more women at the Olympics).

The NFL are pushing had to develop flag football in Australia in hopes of getting it included in 2032. I hope they fail tbh.   Single gender sports fail the gender equality requirement so netball is out unless they can rapidly fix their gender problem. World Netball not so long ago was refusing utterly to sanction men's international netball or even support the growth of men's netball so they kind of sabotaged themselves and are only changing courses out of self interest because Brisbane was awarded the Olympics.   It doesn't even make sense to propose Aussie rules given how poor the participation is outside of Australia.

- Great Britain Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2026 Milano Cortina   Ski Sports   Alpine Skiing  (4) - The qualification system is a bit confusing, but from what I gather the team is Guaranteed 2 quotas (one for each gender), and then more are given for rankings. I can only see 1 female qualifying, but the men's team is a bit stronger, and could improve with some juniors coming through. I would say a baseline of 3, with a max of 5, 6 if things really improve.  Cross Country Skiing  (3) - The men's team came 11th in the world cup last year, and with some good results could move up to top 10 which would give 3 quotas, The women's team is non existant.  Ski Jumping  (0) - Nope Nordic Combined  (0) - Nope Freestyle Skiing  (6) - Based on last year rankings, the athletes are ranked: M Moguls (26/30), M Ski Cross (26/32), M Halfpipe (33/25), M Slopestyle (39+40/30) W Moguls (23+42/30), W Halfpipe (3/25), W Big Air (5/30), W Slopestyle (19+22/30)  Barring Injury , thats 2 quotas on the women's side, and I would predict 4 more, with a max team of 7 or 8. Snowboarding  (2) - W Halfpipe (34/25) is the only unknown quota, as both Charlotte Bankes and Mia Brookes should qualify easily. Huw Nightlingale may get a spot for the Mixed Team snowboard cross but I don't know how it works. Biathlon  (0) - Nope Ski Mountaineering  (0) - Nope     Skating Sports   Speed Skating  (2) - Cornelius Kersten and Elia Smelding should qualify, although they both haven't competed this year. Short Track Speed Skating  (2) - A team of 5 went to the world but only a couple could really qualify Figure Skating  (4) - Fear and Gibson should qualify, and the pair team is ranked 16th in the world with 19 qualifiers.      Sleigh Sports   Luge  (0) - Nope Skeleton  (6) - A full team is certainly on the cards, but with only ranking points from the next season counting a lot could change Bobsleigh  (6) - Brad Hall and Co should qualify for both 2 and 4 man. I doubt any more will qualify from the mens side. Adele Nicholl on the womens should also qualify in both events     Team Sports   Curling  (12) - Anything but a full team would be a dissapointment Ice Hockey  (0) - The men were the only chance       Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (60) Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (32)   Total Realistic Prediction  -  (47)

Medal Table [16/78]    04 00 03 [07]  04 00 01 [05]    03 04 02 [09]  01 02 01 [04]   01 02 00 [03]  01 01 02 [04]   01 00 04 [05] 01 00 00 [01]  00 02 02 [04] 00 02 00 [02]  00 01 01 [02] 00 01 00 [01]  00 01 00 [01] 00 00 02 [02] 00 00 02 [02]   00 00 01 [01] 00 00 01 [01]   00 00 01 [01]   00 00 01 [01]