lol, I can't believe that I almost got it right. I projected 6 gold and 19 total medals and we ended up with 6 gold and 20 total medals. I thought that this was a mildly optimistic projection, my realistic projection was 5 gold and 15 total medals, which for me shows that we did really well.
Here's the recap with the results added:
Events where anything other than gold would be a big disappointment (projection: 2 gold / result: 2 gold)
Swimming, men's 200 fly - GOLD
Canoe Sprint, women's K4 500m - GOLD
Events where I am expecting a medal no matter what, close to 50% of them should give us a gold (projection: 2 gold, 3 other medals / result: 2 gold, 4 other medals)
Fencing, men's team sabre - BRONZE
Swimming, men's 100m butterfly - SILVER
Canoe Sprint, men's K1 1000m - GOLD, SILVER
Canoe Sprint, women's K2 500m - BRONZE
Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 77kg - GOLD
Events where we have a good chance for a medal, I would say that around 10% of them are gold, 40% of them are silver or bronze (projection: 2 gold, 10 other medals / result: 2 gold, 9 other medals)
Athletics, women's heptathlon - 13th
Canoe Sprint, women's K1 200m - 6th
Canoe Sprint, men's K1 200m - GOLD
Canoe Sprint, women's K1 500m - SILVER
Canoe Sprint, women's C2 500m - 5th
Fencing, men's individual sabre - GOLD
Fencing, men's individual epée - SILVER
Fencing, women's individual sabre - 4th
Fencing, women's team sabre - 8th
Judo, men's 90kg - BRONZE
Modern Pentathlon, women's individual - BRONZE
Modern Pentathlon, men's individual - 6th
Sailing, men's finn - SILVER
Shooting, men's 10m air rifle - 5th
Shooting, men's 50m rifle 3 pos - 10th
Swimming, men's 400m IM - 4th
Swimming, women's 400m IM - 5th
Swimming, women's 200m fly - 4th
Swimming, women's 10km - 4th
Swimming, men's 10km - SILVER
Water Polo, men's - BRONZE
Water Polo, women's - BRONZE
Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 67kg - 12th
Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 87kg - SILVER
Wrestling, men's freestyle 65kg - 5th
Events with a small chance for a medal (projection: 0 medal / result: 1 medal, plus a couple of good results)
Karate, kumite, 75kg - BRONZE
Canoe Sprint, men's K2 1000m - 4th
Taekwondo, men's 58kg - 5th
Judo, women's 52kg - 5th
Swimming, men's 4x100m freestyle relay - 5th
Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 97kg - 5th
Events with zero chance for anything (projection: 0 medal / result: 1 completely unexpected 4th place)
Cycling - Mountain Bike, women's - 4th