Nicky Pryde

The last Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo beat the record of the most medal-winning nations during the event, with 93 nations who win at least the Bronze. There was 206 nations and 339 events (for a total of 1080 medals).
 
In Paris, we have still 206 nations, but with less events (329). However, more countries has chances to win a medals.
 
So, do you think Paris will beat this record and, why not, surpass the 100 nations mark for the first time ?
 
As a numbers lover, that will be the point I'll check during this Olympiades in my own country, So i'll be glad to share this with you !
 
 
To check if it's possible, I made stats about each countries during the last 5 olympiads (from Athens to Tokyo), and I separate the 206 nations in 8 categories. (please note : I just check that, I don't know which athletes has the best chances in each sports).
 
 
 
 
Group 1 (26)
 
Countries that has reached at least 5 medals in each Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo
 
For these countries, I'm not afraid for them, I think they'll reach their minimal quota this year.
 
Concerned : Australia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Canada, China, Croatia, Cuba, Czechia, Denmark, France, Germany, UK, Hungary, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine and USA
 
 
 
Group 2 (14)
 
Countries that has reached at least 5 medals 50% or more of their participations in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo
 
I think they'll also gain at least one medal this year, but be careful !
 
Concerned : Bulgaria, Colombia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Iran, North Korea, Norway, Romania, South Africa, Switzerland, Taipei, Thailand, Turkey, Uzbekistan
 
 
 
Group 3 (15)
 
Countries that has reached at least 5 medals in one of the 3 last Olympiades (Tokyo, Rio or London)
 
They are in a good dynamism, so they have really good chances.
Moreover for some of them, the fact that they are not in group 1 or 2 can be explained by geopolitical events.
 
Concerned : Austria, Belgium, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia, Serbia, Slovenia
 
 
 
 
Group 4 (8)
 
Countries that won at least 1 medal in each of their participations in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo
 
they are still here, but they are not immune to poor performance !
From there, we will take a look on these countries.
 
Concerned : Argentina, Bahamas, Estonia, Finland, Morocco, Portugal, Slovakia, Venezuela
 
 
 
 
Group 5 (29)
 
Countries that won at least 1 medal in at least 2 of their participations in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo
 
We will clearly not bet on them, but they have already the experience of the win !
In this category, we can also cut them in 2 parts : the countries who has won a medal in Tokyo and the other.
 
Concerned who won a Medal in Tokyo (20) : Armenia, Bahrain, Botswana, Ecuador, Fiji, Granada, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Moldova, Nigeria, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Uganda
 
Else (9): Afghanistan, Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Singapore, Tajikistan, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam
 
 
 
 
Group 6 (23)
 
Countries that won at least 1 medal only one time in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo
 
They already won so we know they are able, but it'll be still difficult for them
 
Concerned who won a Medal in Tokyo or Rio (10) : Bermuda, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Namibia, Niger, North Macedonia, San Marino, Turkmenistan
 
Else (13): Cyprus, Gabon, Guatemala, Iceland, Mauritius, Montenegro, Panama, Samoa, Sudan, Togo, Eritrea, Paraguay, Zimbabwe
 
 
 
 
Group 7 (91)
 
Countries that never won a medal in the last 5 Olympiads
 
I think the 100 bar can be reach with these countries. Maybe some surprises ? I hope for them !
 
 
 
Group Special (3)
 
Countries that is too difficult to estimate for them
 
I include here AIN and Refugees, but also Kosovo, a too young country who reach at least 1 medal in the last 2 Olympiads, but we don't really know.
 
 
 
 
So, if we go on the fact that groups 1,2,3 and 4 will win at least on medal for each, we have a base of 63 nations. So we hope there will be 37 other nations in the list !
 
What do you think about that ? That was clear for you (sorry, english is not my mother tongue ^^) ? Do you think that, with this analyse, the 100 mark can be reach ?
 
(Also in the topic, i'll take the count for each Group during these Olympic Games)
 
Thanks for reading !
 
 
 
Current results
 
Events : 223
 
Groupe 1 : 26/26
Groupe 2 : 14/14
Groupe 3 : 15/15
Groupe 4 : 4/8
Groupe 5 : 17/29
Groupe 6 : 3/23
Groupe 7 : 6/91
Special : 3/3
 
Total : 88/100
 
 
 
 
 
Last chances per countries :
 
 

Sorry, I wasn't available this morning
 
Here are de good chances of the day :
 
in Sailing Kite M (in Final)
in Wrestling -86kg (ranked 4th, in final for Bronze)
in 400m W (ranked 1th)
in Triple Jump M (ranked 1th)
in 400m Hurdles M (ranked 4th)
 
 
Here are the "why not" chances of the day :
 
in Taekwendoo -80kg M (ranked 10th)
in Weighlifting 71kg W (ranked 7th)
in Wrestling -57kg M (in final for Bronze)
in 400m Hurdles M (ranked 6th)
in 400m Hurdles M (ranked 17th)
in Heptathlon W (actually 8th, but can still reach the 3th place)

wins bronze in the men’s kite

Sorry, I wasn't available this morning
 
Here are de good chances of the day :
 
in Sailing Kite M (in Final)
in Wrestling -86kg (ranked 4th, in final for Bronze)
in 400m W (ranked 1th)
in Triple Jump M (ranked 1th)
in 400m Hurdles M (ranked 4th)
 
 
Here are the "why not" chances of the day :
 
in Taekwendoo -80kg M (ranked 10th)
in Weighlifting 71kg W (ranked 7th)
in Wrestling -57kg M (in final for Bronze)
in 400m Hurdles M (ranked 6th)
in 400m Hurdles M (ranked 17th)
in Heptathlon W (actually 8th, but can still reach the 3th place)

There is a very good chance Maximilian Maeder will win a medal in the men's kite.

Into women's hurdles final 

Yes, indeed !
 
The last one wasn't expected !
 
So we are at 87, the total from Beijing, and one more than Rio and London. Next step : Tokyo (93) !

First medal of the day for in Taekwendoo ! Kareem is in final, he will get at least the Silver !
 
85 now !

Yes, indeed !
 
The last one wasn't expected !
 
So we are at 87, the total from Beijing, and one more than Rio and London. Next step : Tokyo (93) !

First medal of the day for in Taekwendoo ! Kareem is in final, he will get at least the Silver !
 
85 now !

We start a new day with many chances of medal !
 
 
Here are the chances of the day, and some informations to hope something for all of them :
 
 
Kareem Zaid is ranked 5 in Taekwendoo 68kg M
Zelimkhan Abakarov is ranked 5 in Wrestling 57kg M, and won championships in 2022
Odunayo Folasade Adekuoroye is ranked 3 in Wrestling 57kg W, and was 3rd in championships in 2023
Myles Amine is ranked 4 in Wrestling 86kg M, won Championships in 2022 and the Bronze in Tokyo 2020
Sinem Kurtbay is ranked 4 in Sailing Multihull Mixed, and won the bronze in championships in 2022
Anyelin Venegas Valera is ranked 7 in Weightlifting 59kg, but 5th in the participants in Paris 2024
Ese Brume is ranked 3 in Long Jump W, was 2nd in championships in 2022 and had the Bronze in Tokyo 2020
Marthe Koala is ranked 5 in Long Jump W
Letsile Tebogo is ranked 4 in 200m M, and won the Bronze in Championships 2023
Joseph Fahnbulleh is ranked 11 in 200m M, but was 4th in Championships 2022
Qatari Team (in SF of Beach Volley) won the Bronze in Tokyo 2020
 
 
We are currently at 84 countries, I think we can reach the amount of Beijing (87) today !

As I said, is the 84th country, with the gold in 3000m steeplechase !
 
 
+4 today, we are now at 84. We lose many chances today, it gonna be more difficult.
 
 
still not have any medal. Do you think they can finally win something ?

And the third medal of the day for in 400m W !
 
This one wasn't expected, and that's the first medal of the country since 1996 !
 
 
Stay tuned, we will maybe have Morocco later !

And a medal for and in Sailing Dinghy M !
 
The first medal for Peru since 1992 !!!!
 
 
 
 
 
We are at 82 now. We lose Viet Nam sooner, but we can hope :
 
 
Athletism Polt Vault W
Athletism Discus Throw M
Athletism 3000m steeplechase M
 
Weightlifting 49kg W
 
 

The Gold Medal for in 3000m Steeplechase W ! And an Olympic record with that.
 
We are now at 80, we equalize the amount from Sydney. Only London (86), Rio (86), Beijing (87) and Tokyo (93) are above !

Yeah but you have to pay big money only for training + costs for living is the factor not many can afford

Yes, that's why I do this tracking of new countries, I use to be for the unknown or small nations in every sport competitions because I know they have less weapons than USA, China, Japan or West Europe countries. That's unfair and, unfortunately, I think it'll be worse in the future.
 
The sport players from "little" countries who are medals, it's because in general they train in bigger countries, so maybe the solution is to send their best athletes elsewhere, but that's still unfair, it's only richer players who can go away...

It is hard to win medals for small nations this time, it appear to me like the medals are reserved only to big nations, Paris 2024 proved to me that the current Olympics are set mainly for the rich nations,
 
rich getting richer, the rest of us are here mainly as desired backdrops in the effort of showing some visually looking cool global participation, but the fact is that different conditions and especially extremely different financial/technological/material resources both in preparation and in competitions make it impossible to fight with equal weapons with the "upper" countries of this world.

It's crazy that countries like Finland, Estonia and Latvia might finish the Games without a medal

That was a really bad day today. We only gain  , but we also lose good chances :
 
- Peru and Costa Rica finished both 4th in Surfing
- Latvia lose their match in Basket 4x4
- the andorran kayakist lose too quickly in quarterfinals
- Wrestling wasn't as good as expected
- And Saint Vincent finished 4th in 200m 
 
 
I hope we will be more lucky tomorrow !

First medal of the day for Colombia with a Silver in Horizontal Bar M ! Iran is the last country in the group 2.
 
77 now !
 
However, Cyprus didn't succeded this event. All they have now is Sailing.

You mean surfing?

Countries that can technically win a medal this afternoon :
 
Athletism Pole Vault M
Athletism 5000m W
Athletism 800m W
 
Gym Art Horizontal Bar
 
Wrestling Greco-Roman -60kg
Wrestling Greco-Roman -130kg
Wrestling Freestyle -68kg W
 
Kayak Cross W
 
Surfing M
Surfing W
 
Football M
Basket 3x3 M
 
 
 
Regarding the chances I took this night, we have good chances of medals for Colombia and Cyprus (Gym Art), Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela and Estonia (Wrestling), Andorra (Kayak), Morocco (Football), Latvia (Basket 3x3), Peru and Costa Rica (Surfing), Kenya and Saint Vincent (Athletism).

Countries that can technically win a medal this afternoon :
 
Athletism Pole Vault M
Athletism 5000m W
Athletism 800m W
 
Gym Art Horizontal Bar
 
Wrestling Greco-Roman -60kg
Wrestling Greco-Roman -130kg
Wrestling Freestyle -68kg W
 
Kayak Cross W
 
Surfing M
Surfing W
 
Football M
Basket 3x3 M
 
 
 
Regarding the chances I took this night, we have good chances of medals for Colombia and Cyprus (Gym Art), Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela and Estonia (Wrestling), Andorra (Kayak), Morocco (Football), Latvia (Basket 3x3), Peru and Costa Rica (Surfing), Kenya and Saint Vincent (Athletism).

Today, +5 countries, so we are at 75 countries. Only 25 left !
 
That's better than the total in Athens, the Summer Olympic Games with the least of countries awarded in the XXIe century. But still less than Tokyo after the same amount of events...
 
Tomorrow should not be a good day, so in the place, here are countries with the best chances for each event, regarding the rankings (around top15 in their category) and if they are at QF or SF now.
(nb : we can also have some surprises, but here, i'll give the best chances)
 
 
 
 
Kenya (Group 1)
-> Athletism 800m M
-> Athletism 800m W
-> Athletism 1500m M
-> Athletism 1500m W
-> Athletism Steeplechase 3000m W
-> Athletism Steeplechase 3000m M
-> Athletism Marathon M
-> Athletism Marathon W
-> Athletism 5000m M
-> Athletism 5000m W
-> Athletism Javelin Throw W
 
 
 
Colombia (Group 2)
-> Athletism Long Jump M
-> Athletism Long Jump W
-> Athletism Javelin Throw W
-> Canoe-Kayak C1 200 W
-> Gymnastic Artistic Horizontal Bar M
-> Track Cycling Keirin M
-> Track Cycling Keirin W
-> Weightlifting -59kg W
-> Weightlifting -89kg M
-> Wrestling -50kg W
-> Wrestling -76kg W
 
 
 
Nigeria (Group 5)
-> Athletism Long Jump W
-> Athletism 100m Hurdles W
-> Basket-Ball W
-> Canoe-Kayak C1 200 W
-> Canoe-Kayak C2 500 W
-> Weightlifting -53kg W
-> Wrestling -57kg W
-> Wrestling -62kg W
-> Wrestling -68kg W
-> Wrestling -76kg W
 
 
 
Iran (Group 2)
-> Taekwendoo -57kg W
-> Taekwendoo -80kg M
-> Wrestling Greco-Roman -60kg
-> Wrestling Greco-Roman -87kg
-> Wrestling Greco-Roman -92kg
-> Wrestling -65kg M
-> Wrestling -74kg M
-> Wrestling -97kg M
-> Wrestling -125kg M
 
 
 
Bahrein (Group 5)
-> Athletism Steeplechase 3000m W
-> Athletism 400m Hurdles W
-> Athletism 400m W
-> Athletism 5000m M
-> Weightlifting +102kg M
-> Wrestling -97kg M
 
 
 
Finland (Group 4)
-> Athletism Hammer Throw W
-> Athletism Pole Vault W
-> Athletism JavelinThrow W
-> Sailing Mixed Multihull
-> Wrestling Greco-Roman -92kg
 
 
 
Venezuela (Group 4)
-> Athletism Pole Vault W
-> Weightlifting -49kg W
-> Weightlifting -59kg W
-> Wrestling -68kg W
 
 
 
Ivory Coast (Group 6)
-> Athletism 200m W
-> Athletism 200m M
-> Taekwendoo -67kg W
-> Taekwendoo +80kg M
 
 
 
Latvia (Groupe 5)
-> Athletism JavelinThrow W
-> Athletism Javelin Throw W
-> Basketball 3x3 M
-> Beach-Volley W
 
 
 
Qatar (Group 5)
-> Athletism 400m Hurdles M
-> Athletism High Jump M
-> Beach-Volley M
-> Taekwendoo -102kg M
 
 
 
Maroc (Group 4)
-> Athletism Steeplechase 3000m M
-> Athletism 800m M
-> Canoe-Kayak K1 1000 M
-> Football M
 
 
 
Botswana (Group 5)
-> Athletism 200m M
-> Athletism 400m M
-> Athletism 800m M
 
 
 
 Bahamas (Group 4)
-> Athletism High Jump M
-> Athletism Javelin Throw W
-> Athletism 100m Hurdles W
 
 
 
Puerto Rico (Group 5)
-> Athletism 100m Hurdles W
-> Wrestling -65kg M
-> Wrestling -125kg M
 
 
 
Indonesia (Group 3)
-> Climbing Speed M
-> Weightlifting -61kg M
-> Weightlifting -73kg M
 
 
 
Trinidad and Tobago (Group 5)
-> Athletism 400m M
-> Athletism JavelinThrow W
-> Track Cycling Sprint M
 
 
 
Jordan (Group 5)
-> Taekwendoo -68kg M
-> Taekwendoo -80kg M
-> Taekwendoo -67kg W
 
 
 
Burkina Faso (Group 6)
-> Athletism Long Jump W
-> Athletism Triple Jump M
 
 
 
Costa Rica (Group 7)
-> Athletism 400m Hurdles M
-> Surfing M
 
 
 
Peru (Group 7)
-> Surfing M
-> Sailing Dinghy M
 
 
 
Cyprus(Group 6)
-> Gymnastic Artistic Horizontal Bar M
-> Sailing Dinghy M
 
 

Estonia (Group 4)
-> Athletism 400m Hurdles M
-> Wrestling Greco-Roman -130kg
 
 
 
Andorra (Group 7)
-> Kayak Cross W
 


Saint Vincent and Grenadines (Group 7)
-> Athletism 800m W
 


Samoa (Group 6)
-> Athletism Discuss Throw M
 
 
 
Liberia (Group 7)
-> Athletism 200m M
 
 

Barbados (Group 7)
-> Athletism 400m w
 
 

British Virgin Islands (Group 7)
-> Athletism 400m Hurdles M
 
 
 
Singapor (Group 5)
-> Sailing Kite M
 
 
 
Honduras (Group 7)
-> Wrestling Greco-Roman -92kg
 
 
 
Albania (Group 7)
-> Wrestling -57kg M
 
 
 
San Marino (Group 6)
-> Wrestling -68kg M
 
 
 
Guinea Bissau (Group 7)
-> Wrestling -74kg M
 
 
 
 Indonesia (Group 5)
-> Weightlifting -61kg M
 
 
 
Syrie (Group 5)
-> Weightlifting +102kg M
 
 
 
 Irak (Group 7)
-> Weightlifting +102kg M
 
 
 
22 countries with at least 2 chances, so. So 3 left...
 
 
PS : I just checked the rankings. So if I forget a country in an event, please tell me !