Ski Jumping Discussion | Qualification to Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026

[Monzanator 5,086]

38 minutes ago, Kerkun said:

Well, half of this is not true.There is no minimum nation count - even less nations were expected by FIS ski jumping higher-ups than there are qualified now. The last 4 quotas for men are for NOCs with one or none athletes qualified. So we should complete 3 super teams and get China with one ski jumper in the men's individual competitions. 

20 nations are qualified on the men's side right now (even without China). Canada is only in bc Boyd-Clowes has resumed his career.

 

There is no nation count limit indeed, I only counted the qualified athletes' nations (20 for men, 16 for women).

[evil betty 88]

4 hours ago, Monzanator said:

Continental Cup points are only optional IF there won't be 50 athletes from 20 nations qualified from the World Cup + Summer GP ranking points (technically 45 + 1 from Italy and the last four places 'prioritised' for nations with only one athlete qualified to make duets possible i.e. Estonia).

Right now  Spulber and  Ipcioglu are even on points but Ipcioglu is ranked ahead by one position. If Spulber moves ahead they no longer need a D.2 quota, Turkey only gets a D.2 quota (drop to one) and then continental cup ranking would determine the final quota. Unless the FIS does something strange like they briefly did in September and give a country 2 quotas in D.2.

[Monzanator 5,086]

I'm not sure how those 4 extra male quotas work. It's basically the only chance for  to qualify 

[Bailer 156]

Does anyone know how does the quota reallocation process work? Can we expect some movements? We are very close to two female spots, but they are both below the line.

[Kerkun 76]

16 minutes ago, Bailer said:

Does anyone know how does the quota reallocation process work? Can we expect some movements? We are very close to two female spots, but they are both below the line.

It's the continuation of the previously awarded 48 quotas. Who can reject some of them? The foremost suspect in ski jumping -  one of their three, just to compete in the mixed team as only Josephine Pagnier is competitive. The next one is your neighbor  - only 2 compete at the World Cup level, Karolina Indrackova got pregnant this summer and Veronika Jencova just started to train after the knee injury. In my opinion, the third country to go down from three to two ski jumpers might be  - Alexandria Loutit is injured and Natalie Eilers is far from qualifying for the World Cup events. It's getting trickier now. Maybe  one place down if they decide it's not worth to complete the mixed team? I doubt that either  or  decides not use all four spots each but I wouldn't be surprised if they did, to be honest.

[copravolley 635]

19 minutes ago, Kerkun said:

It's the continuation of the previously awarded 48 quotas. Who can reject some of them? The foremost suspect in ski jumping -  one of their three, just to compete in the mixed team as only Josephine Pagnier is competitive. The next one is your neighbor  - only 2 compete at the World Cup level, Karolina Indrackova got pregnant this summer and Veronika Jencova just started to train after the knee injury. In my opinion, the third country to go down from three to two ski jumpers might be  - Alexandria Loutit is injured and Natalie Eilers is far from qualifying for the World Cup events. It's getting trickier now. Maybe  one place down if they decide it's not worth to complete the mixed team? I doubt that either  or  decides not use all four spots each but I wouldn't be surprised if they did, to be honest.

In fact, Poland probably shouldn't take 3 people either, even if they were to be relocated, because why would they? Austria's level outside of the top two womens is also surprising. Even China now probably has a better and higher level squad than they do, and it has always been a great power.

Edited January 5 by copravolley

[Bailer 156]

24 minutes ago, Kerkun said:

It's the continuation of the previously awarded 48 quotas. Who can reject some of them? The foremost suspect in ski jumping -  one of their three, just to compete in the mixed team as only Josephine Pagnier is competitive. The next one is your neighbor  - only 2 compete at the World Cup level, Karolina Indrackova got pregnant this summer and Veronika Jencova just started to train after the knee injury. In my opinion, the third country to go down from three to two ski jumpers might be  - Alexandria Loutit is injured and Natalie Eilers is far from qualifying for the World Cup events. It's getting trickier now. Maybe  one place down if they decide it's not worth to complete the mixed team? I doubt that either  or  decides not use all four spots each but I wouldn't be surprised if they did, to be honest.

So at least one of them falling towards us is possible.

[Kerkun 76]

11 minutes ago, copravolley said:

In fact, Poland probably shouldn't take 3 people either, even if they were to be relocated, because why would they? Austria's level outside of the top two womens is also surprising. Even China now probably has a better and higher level squad than they do, and it has always been a great power.

Poland's third woman has results very close to the Slovak girls, maybe a bit better with some national bias , and the Olympic Games might serve as farewell to her career.

9 minutes ago, Bailer said:

So at least one of them falling towards us is possible.

I can't promise anything but don't lose hope.

[Topicmaster1010 6,366]

40 minutes ago, Kerkun said:

 - Alexandria Loutit is injured and Natalie Eilers is far from qualifying for the World Cup events.

Canada doesn't usually reject quotas. Eilers is currently listed as eligible on the FIS website so she'll likely take Loutitt's quota.

[copravolley 635]

22 minutes ago, Kerkun said:

Poland's third woman has results very close to the Slovak girls, maybe a bit better with some national bias , and the Olympic Games might serve as farewell to her career.

I can't promise anything but don't lose hope.

Italy isn't making any progress with Rodlauer: Sieff is in the same level as two years ago. Everything else remains unchanged. Jessica Malsinier is completely lost. Sure, if Lara Malsinier were here, she'd probably be in the 15th-20th spot, but that's still zero progress - she was already achieving such results around 2020. And this young Chinese athlete demonstrates that significant progress can be made in this sport. It is clear that Sieff was at her peak in the summer of 2024

Edited January 5 by copravolley